Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[MJB]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

a pretty non eventful run so far from the 12z,high is just lurking around over the country doesnt want to move north at all

What were you expecting?

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

a pretty non eventful run so far from the 12z,high is just lurking around over the country doesnt want to move north at all

Yes pulls sw and is overridden by area of low pressure. All subject to change for better or worse

[feb1991blizzard]

Its all gone crap now.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

What were you expecting?

well from the earlier frames in the run,it looked better then 6z.so somthing on par with that or even better.but its turned out worse

[swfc]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Its all gone crap now.

It's has kind of gone down the Gary  but still chance of pulling some Heighths nnw, in theory obv.

[Battleground Snow]

Gem just starting to move the vortex at day 10, means nothing yet, but possibly will open up more opportunities later on.

Lets see if the ECM and gefs show any interest later

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes pulls sw and is overridden by area of low pressure. All subject to change for better or worse

i suppose the good thing is that at 240h,the high is over us and in good positioning.so get the high in first then we can hope that it moves northwest!

[MJB]

The theme continues , this will do me ( look North )

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

The theme continues , this will do me ( look North )

haha better late then never

[MJB]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

haha better late then never

or not to have it 

Patience in these situations are needed 

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

or not to have it 

Patience in these situations are needed 

that stinking PV is a real problem isnt it!

[Cuban Zebra]

We’ll hello!! Where are you going???

[Guest]

The high pressure is very welcome, looks sunnier than our last one. 

I don't expect the high to move to a favourable position for cold. More likely another bout of zonal. But welcome for sure.

Edited January 3, 2022 by DCee

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

that stinking PV is a real problem isnt it!

It is but it going to be a protracted job to get any change. Hoops a plenty to jump threw on that run

[Froze were the Days]

16 minutes ago, MJB said:

The theme continues , this will do me ( look North )

...and then south as the limpet High fails to regress northwards.

Run after GFS run for days now with no HLB is always a worry ( a majority of winters we do get something to look at in FI), yes we have the odd Pm incursion. Doesn't look like a 2013/14 with no powerful jet on the cards but the continuation of lows well to the north and heights somewhere near the UK or to the south is hardly the stuff of dreams!

Edited January 3, 2022 by Froze were the Days

[The Enforcer]

In the shorter term, 12z GFS has boosted the snow potential compared with 06z GFS, the example below being at T+24. Will the hi-res models follow suit?

 

[IanT]

7 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

In the shorter term, 12z GFS has boosted the snow potential compared with 06z GFS, the example below being at T+24. Will the hi-res models follow suit?

 

For my Surrey location, my very accurate gut feeling says “not a chance…”

[North-Easterly Blast]

9 hours ago, SLEETY said:

o

8 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

In the shorter term, 12z GFS has boosted the snow potential compared with 06z GFS, the example below being at T+24. Will the hi-res models follow suit?

 

 

I would say that the chance is there tonight and into tomorrow morning for favoured areas with elevation to see some snowfall, but at low levels I would say there is very little chance of snow.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I would say that the chance is there tonight and into tomorrow morning for favoured areas with elevation to see some snowfall, but at low levels I would say there is very little chance of snow.

yes pretty accurate assessment of things i would say,my location bicester is showing 1.8cm

[minus10]

19 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

In the shorter term, 12z GFS has boosted the snow potential compared with 06z GFS, the example below being at T+24. Will the hi-res models follow suit?

 

Interesting thats the second time recently the GFS is showing some snow potential at very short timescales. T24 and gut feeling is that it is still not right although elevation as others say could make the difference. 

Otherwise its like deja vu again with the uk high. 

Interesting though that the vortex progged back to the ne....story continues

 

Edited January 3, 2022 by minus10

[The Enforcer]

Two events spring to mind:

1) January 2010 - an LP developed along the line of a south-moving weak cold front, bringing a red warning here and the heaviest snowfall for decades;

2) Last Saturday -  cold front shown/described as a "narrow weak band" by the BBC forecast only the evening before gave a few hours of torrential rain and flash flooding.

 

Definitely worth keeping an open mind.

Edited January 3, 2022 by The Enforcer

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, Hatewarmth said:

Hi Cuban.  Can you please explain as someone like me has no idea what it shows.  I have no understanding of charts and pick up on what other say.

 

going forward rather than just put this if you explain what the charts actually are showing then everyone can understand what you are posting.  Don’t mean to sound a @@@@ just think it will help numpties like me who don’t understand how to read weather charts

He’s talking about the pv purple blob leaving the nw and going east. Therefore giving opportunities for heights to build nw and the jet stream being less strong. Here are the gefs mean from 06z and 12z you can see that more of the pv is east on this run. Worth looking at future runs to see if this becomes a trend.  

 

There are some brilliant areas within this site to aide learning. I would encourage looking as this hobby is far more enjoyable when you start to get handle on what the charts are showing.

Edited January 3, 2022 by That ECM

[Wingman Blue]

I do feel at the moment the models are like jigsaws packed in the wrong boxes.

what we wind up with may not necessarily be what is on the box lid…

[Staffmoorlands]

2 minutes ago, Hatewarmth said:

Hi Cuban.  Can you please explain as someone like me has no idea what it shows.  I have no understanding of charts and pick up on what other say.

 

going forward rather than just put this if you explain what the charts actually are showing then everyone can understand what you are posting.  Don’t mean to sound a @@@@ just think it will help numpties like me who don’t understand how to read weather charts

Polar Vortex has moved from Canada to Asia. PV over Canada is usually bad news for us in Europe. 

[snowwonder]

1 minute ago, Wingman Blue said:

I do feel at the moment the models are like jigsaws packed in the wrong boxes.

what we wind up with may not necessarily be what is on the box lid…

It does feel a bit Eric Morecambe! All the right pieces but in the wrong order lol