Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[Paul]

A fresh thread as the 12z's roll out this afternoon. This is still a hunt for cold thread, so some extra chat is ok, but as always the theme has to still be model related discussion. 

The discussion has become very ugly at times in recent days, which is sad to see. It's a minority of people involved in these things, but a vocal one. It's perhaps a sign of the times on the internet generally, that being respectful and reasonable is sometimes optional, but it's not something that will ever be acceptable on here. So, those who aren't prepared to follow the forum guidelines, will, unfortunately, have their posts removed and ultimately will also find their accounts restricted.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

Please report posts you think break these guidelines, and don't respond to them.

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If you want to go for full on moans, ramps and winter based chat with little to no model discussion, please continue to use the the winter chat thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96442-winter-2021-22-moans-and-ramps-thread/?do=getNewComment

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If you want a slightly slower pace of discussion, or don't specifically want to be involved in the hunt for cold, please head over to the slower paced model discussion:
 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96449-short-range-model-discussion-december-2021-onwards/?do=getNewComment
(This thread was the short range model discussion). 

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You're welcome to cross-post into each of model threads, if you have a  post which you think would work well for both. 

Thank you, and happy cold hunting!

[damianslaw]

I'll just be dipping in and out of the forum between now and New Year and may not comment much at all on the models. I take a break over 24th to 27th any way.

Hope come New Year cold prospects are firmly on the horizon. 

 

[Staffmoorlands]

The all too familiar Iberian High on our UKMO chart this evening. No sign so far of the Met Office suggestion of a cold start to 2022

 

Edited December 23, 2021 by Staffmoorlands

[Eagle Eye]

Looking for that northeast moving high wave is a nightmare, we all know how the models have been doing recently, so let's hope for a little bit of luck with a strong north-easterly moving high similar to that of 2018, or a Greenland directionally moving high similar to that of 2010, with the current setup most would prefer a Greenland moving high because it does give the potential for at least a decently lived easterly rather than a short one which'll just be ended by a Rossby Wave, I'm only at the hoping stage at the moment though with this looking like it'll act different to a quickly up, down and weakening wave but the potential is there.

[geordiekev]

That slither of High Pressure being dragged down North Sea really a pain but good luck to those still in with a chance at Christmas. 

[KTtom]

6 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

The all too familiar Iberian High on our UKMO chart this evening. No sign so far of the Met Office suggestion of a cold start to 2022

 

Almost identical to the 168 chart i posted yesterday, and the gfs 144 today. Funny how the models can suddenly find consistancy with a blow torch south westerly! You have to laugh!

Edited December 23, 2021 by KTtom

[StormChaseUK]

12z has moved cold back for Wales,  could be snow on hills of Wales, Boxing day

[Weather vane]

I'm intrigued why that low pressure over ne Canada barely moves for 7 days. With the south westerlies upcoming, why such a stall? 

[Cold Winter Night]

If anything, this is not your standard Iberian/Euro High with a raging Atlantic North of it.
Heights lingering/increasing in the Northeast Atlantic.

That's why interest remains, without having to resort to +384h strat charts to look for hope.

Edited December 23, 2021 by Cold Winter Night

[winterof79]

Few of the 06z Gefs hinting at Scandi heights building from 192 onwards

 

 

[winterof79]

Just now, Cold Winter Night said:

If anything, this is not your standard Iberian/Euro High with a raging Atlantic North of it.
Heights lingering/increasing in the Northeast Atlantic.

That's why interest remains, without having to resort to +384h start charts to look for hope.

The gefs hinting at lifting out the iberian heights quickly northward

[Battleground Snow]

GFS looking a bit more blocked over the Arctic compared to the previous run, other than that nothing of interest,

[blizzard81]

11 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

The all too familiar Iberian High on our UKMO chart this evening. No sign so far of the Met Office suggestion of a cold start to 2022

 

It is a little surprising that Exeter haven't amended their forecast. They are extremely cautious though which is understandable. However, it sometimes makes them appear to be 24 hours behind the curve. 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It is a little surprising that Exeter haven't amended their forecast. They are extremely cautious though which is understandable. However, it sometimes makes them appear to be 24 hours behind the curve. 

Their forecast today has changed and they are now stating it will become very mild across all areas with time.  However, it still sticks with the theme of becoming colder than average heading into January.

[cyclonic happiness]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It is a little surprising that Exeter haven't amended their forecast. They are extremely cautious though which is understandable. However, it sometimes makes them appear to be 24 hours behind the curve. 

or 24 hours in front of the curve?  I'm sure something will flip back to cold before long

[sebastiaan1973]

Quite an intresting chart with very cold air in Scandinavia and NW-Russia.

[minus10]

Looks like hp building down from the north to mavbe link with the hp to the south on this run presently although that will probably change..

Yes...still no change from met office re January cold...as others have said maybe waiting until they have enough confidence...

[tight isobar]

11 minutes ago, Don said:

Their forecast today has changed and they are now stating it will become very mild across all areas with time.  However, it still sticks with the theme of becoming colder than average heading into January.

Probably because although our big fail..has ultimately-dropped @azores pump. it could be our grace moving forward, come from Iberian rises! The Scandinavia signal for blocking setting up has Been  flagged for a while through various meteo agencies!! From the irish met- Norwegian!! And a few in between. The immediate hope has sailed but the early/ mid January ones have yet to unfold. I don’t see any change to Exeter’s wording. As you may-make comparison with in the quite near future from the models. Anyway a bitter pill now swallowed- and im although sitting in the bk ground , not going to be as active in posting over Xmas.. so in that note I wish one and all a wonderous/ safe/healthy Christmas x...

Edited December 23, 2021 by tight isobar

[phil nw.]

The ensembles do point to a milder trend leading up to the new year.Quite a switch to only a short time ago.

The blocking signal to the north gradually weakening allowing the Atlantic to come in. 

it looks like a good time to take a step back and enjoy the holiday period with family and friends.

On that note I wish you all a very happy and safe Christmas .

 

 

[Don]

14 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Probably because although our big fail..has ultimately-dropped @azores pump. it could be our grace moving forward, come from Iberian rises! The Scandinavia signal for blocking setting up has Been  flagged for a while through various meteo agencies!! From the irish met- Norwegian!! And a few in between. The immediate hope has sailed but the early/ mid January ones have yet to unfold. I don’t see any change to Exeter’s wording. As you may-make comparison with in the quite near future from the models. Anyway a bitter pill now swallowed- and im although sitting in the bk ground , not going to be as active in posting over Xmas.. so in that note I wish one and all a wonderous/ safe/healthy Christmas x...

Lets hope that's the case - short term pain, long term gain!  Will be interesting to see the EC46 later.

[Staffmoorlands]

5 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

The ensembles do point to a milder trend leading up to the new year.Quite a switch to only a short time ago.

The blocking signal to the north gradually weakening allowing the Atlantic to come in. 

it looks like a good time to take a step back and enjoy the holiday period with family and friends.

On that note I wish you all a very happy and safe Christmas .

 

 

Marco Petagna  (Met Office) has also explained that the agreement for much milder weather in the next week has been much stronger than any predictions for a cold spell

[johnholmes]

20 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Probably because although our big fail..has ultimately-dropped @azores pump. it could be our grace moving forward, come from Iberian rises! The Scandinavia signal for blocking setting up has Been  flagged for a while through various meteo agencies!! From the irish met- Norwegian!! And a few in between. The immediate hope has sailed but the early/ mid January ones have yet to unfold. I don’t see any change to Exeter’s wording. As you may-make comparison with in the quite near future from the models. Anyway a bitter pill now swallowed- and im although sitting in the bk ground , not going to be as active in posting over Xmas.. so in that note I wish one and all a wonderous/ safe/healthy Christmas x...

Are drunk ti, I ask because you have written most of it in English

Anyway your posts add a little additional interest for us all as we try to work out what you have posted.

Have a good Xmas with your family, see you in 2022

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Are drunk ti, I ask because you have written most of it in English

Anyway your posts add a little additional interest for us all as we try to work out what you have posted.

Have a good Xmas with your family, see you in 2022

thanks John. Merry Christmas to you and yours also

[Polar Maritime]

Merry Christmas everyone. It's a great forum, And remember it's the community that makes it what it is

[sebastiaan1973]

At 216h average the cold air remains relatively close by. 1015 hPa at Scandinavia. So, there are members with an anticyclone over there.