Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[jellybaby1969]

9 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Gonna have to disagree mate...firstly last winter delivered the goods to a few places...Scotland did very well...but I think some seem to think they don't exist. Plus your talking about a big letdown like it was the end of winter and nothing had delivered! When infact its barely got started.

We've already seen one blast of snow at the end of November...yet all we have witnessed is one fail regarding the Xmas period cold snap...hardly the end of the world is it my lad.

Matt...when you look at Scotland most of the population live in low lying areas and near the coast. My location in Ayrshire is as snow starved as Cornwall.  You in the Midlands are in a more favourable location than many of us Scots. I have lived in coastal Ayrshire for 13 years..n been lucky to see snowfall of more than 2 to 3 inches in that time 

[alexisj9]

39 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Icon 18z bit south of 12z run @ 54h

Don't think it'll start sliding again though.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

Don't think it'll start sliding again though.

It's a tounge in cheek remark

[blizzard81]

19 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Gonna have to disagree mate...firstly last winter delivered the goods to a few places...Scotland did very well...but I think some seem to think they don't exist. Plus your talking about a big letdown like it was the end of winter and nothing had delivered! When infact its barely got started.

We've already seen one blast of snow at the end of November...yet all we have witnessed is one fail regarding the Xmas period cold snap...hardly the end of the world is it my lad.

Fair point mate but the point about Scotland just doesn't cut the mustard I'm afraid. They will always fair much better in any given winter period. We really are well overdue a decent wintry December. This is another fail. I haven't given up on winter. That's not what I am saying. Just a very bad day model wise. Like I told you the other day though. The only way is up

Edited December 23, 2021 by blizzard81

[weirpig]

Snow poss for some boxing day. Maybe 

[Kasim Awan]

We need to watch Boxing day for tentative changes in 850s etc.

Gfs 18z has 2-8cm widely north Midlands.

[Don]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Snow poss for some boxing day. Maybe 

Well, they had better make the most of it! 

[Malarky]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

We need to watch Boxing day for tentative changes in 850s etc.

Gfs 18z has 2-8cm widely north Midlands.

1. Expect nothing.

2. Look outside your window at 1 hour intervals on Boxing Day.

3. Be pleasantly surprised, or not.

[Dunstable Snow]

I think this forum will be very quiet over the next 3-4 weeks. My god the last few days has been incredibly frustrating and I do sometimes wonder why we bother. 
 

Have a great Christmas and a happy new year everyone- really enjoy reading all the contributions.

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Malarky said:

1. Expect nothing.

2. Look outside your window at 1 hour intervals on Boxing Day.

3. Be pleasantly surprised, or not.

The snow parameters are finely balanced. Even a slight shift in the alignment, would allow a more wintry progression north on boxing day. Just to clarify a revert to the successful slide is not a requirement to increase sleet / snow chances on boxing day.

[Battleground Snow]

8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

We need to watch Boxing day for tentative changes in 850s etc.

Gfs 18z has 2-8cm widely north Midlands.

Mogreps sneakily trended back a bit colder for boxing day too when we weren't looking and being depressed.

I think we deserve a little snow event as a consolation prize after this torrid week

[mbrothers]

On 23/12/2021 at 22:01, Dunstable Snow said:

I think this forum will be very quiet over the next 3-4 weeks. My god the last few days has been incredibly frustrating and I do sometimes wonder why we bother. 
 

Have a great Christmas and a happy new year everyone- really enjoy reading all the contributions.

Not sure anyone can say a whole month can be written off.

[jellybaby1969]

21 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Fair point mate but the point about Scotland just doesn't cut the mustard I'm afraid. They will always fair much better in any given winter period. We really are well overdue a decent wintry December. This is another fail. I haven't given up on winter. That's not what I am saying. Just a very bad day model wise. Like I told you the other day though. The only way is up

That is v much incorrect.. higher parts of Scotland may fair better as do Pennines Yorkshire Moors  interior Wales..Midlands etc. But most of Scotland fairs no better than other parts of the UK ! I lived in Portsmouth for 15 years n to be honest snowfall was pretty much a non event as it is in coastal Ayrshire  Scotland has a vast geography and difference in climate.  It's not all a winter wonderland...far from it 8c today and rain 

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mogreps sneakily trended back a bit colder for boxing day too when we weren't looking and being depressed.

I think we deserve a little snow event as a consolation prize after this torrid week

Not sure the clustering there changes the outlook significantly. Regardless of what happens the mild progression is nailed on (96%).

We are not looking for a massive switch

Just slight 5 or 10% upgrades in the easterly momentum to swing the parameters for the derbyshire & flintshire regions & perhaps some other parts of the north

Entirely possible since we are still 58 hours out & southerly adjustments at the LOCAL scale are still possible (tens of miles, tenths of a degree C etc)..

[Dunstable Snow]

1 minute ago, mbrothers said:

Not sure anyone can say a whole month can be written off.

I hope you are right. I think we are all exhausted by the last 10 days - my feeling is that unless things happen in the strat we are looking at a 2/3 week period at least of nothing if not longer - I really hope I am wrong.

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not sure the clustering there changes the outlook significantly. Regardless of what happens the mild progression is nailed on (96%).

We are not looking for a massive switch

Just slight 5 or 10% upgrades in the easterly momentum to swing the parameters for the derbyshire & flintshire regions & perhaps some other parts of the north

Entirely possible since we are still 58 hours out & southerly adjustments at the LOCAL scale are still possible (tens of miles, tenths of a degree C etc)..

Yes, sorry  I was just referring to the window of opportunity for a transient snow event boxing day

[fromey]

4 minutes ago, Dunstable Snow said:

I hope you are right. I think we are all exhausted by the last 10 days - my feeling is that unless things happen in the strat we are looking at a 2/3 week period at least of nothing if not longer - I really hope I am wrong.

Don’t thinks a SSW is going to happen anytime soon according to DR Simon!

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, jellybaby1969 said:

That is v much incorrect.. higher parts of Scotland may fair better as do Pennines Yorkshire Moors  interior Wales..Midlands etc. But most of Scotland fairs no better than other parts of the UK ! I lived in Portsmouth for 15 years n to be honest snowfall was pretty much a non event as it is in coastal Ayrshire  Scotland has a vast geography and difference in climate.  It's not all a winter wonderland...far from it 8c today and rain 

Fair point. 

[Dunstable Snow]

Just now, fromey said:

Don’t thinks a SSW is going to happen anytime soon according to DR Simon!

More good news then - I think is cold lovers need to take a break for a while and let knocker and the guy from Stafford have a party  

[minus10]

13 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mogreps sneakily trended back a bit colder for boxing day too when we weren't looking and being depressed.

I think we deserve a little snow event as a consolation prize after this torrid week

Maybe some wintry prec for Christmas day for a few according to gfs 18z.

Just finished watching prog about the 63 winter. Frozen for 2 months. Incredible. Also saw the forerunner to the jet stream illustrated where it was stated that some American forecasters had put forward a theory about developements in the pacific effecting weather pattens at that time. Interesting. Now  , well it is looking mild again but still hope for more chances given n hemisphere pattern ..happy and safe Christmas to you all on here...

Edited December 23, 2021 by minus10

[jayb1989]

1 minute ago, fromey said:

Don’t thinks a SSW is going to happen anytime soon according to DR Simon!

Really not a good sign, will be into February with the sun getting stronger before we know it. Leaves little time for a decent cold spell that isn’t over in a couple of days.

[Don]

1 minute ago, jayb1989 said:

Really not a good sign, will be into February with the sun getting stronger before we know it. Leaves little time for a decent cold spell that isn’t over in a couple of days.

Yes, you really do have to laugh!  Although I think the coldies are being laughed at right now! 

[Chris Smith]

Gawd bless ya Mr Bartlett. What would we do without your Highs?

[weathercold]

Whilst writing off a whole month (Jan) a week before it starts is foolish I think we need to be realistic as to where we are at right now. 
Many of the positive signals of recent weeks seem to be quickly ebbing away bit by bit.

Hopes of an SSW look slim at the moment in my opinion and I personally can’t see any clear signals for anything other than bog standard mild and wet weather for the foreseeable.

My current punt is a mild Jan and I sense we’ll be looking at Feb for a final window for winter. I know this sounds gloomy for coldies (inc myself) but I feel this is a realistic position currently.

Let’s not let the weather bog us down, after all there are far more important things in life.

Have a wonderful Christmas one and all

Edited December 23, 2021 by weathercold

[Laurence]

2 hours ago, Rollo said:

The winter of 62-63 remains fresh in my memory ,I was mid twenties so adult or not I enjoyed the sledging. I still hav e the D.W.R for the main 3 winter month s And still find myself saying if only.

Enough reminiscing , let me wish all members a very merry Christmas and a happy snowy new year.

I was ten and remember waiting for my dad to come back from the pub around 1pm boxing day to take my Mum and sister down to our grandparents who lived in Lordship Lane SE London. At that time drinking and driving was legal. Anyway I stood in our cold non insulated loft, single glazed windows and two bar electric fire and paraffin heated house looking out of a bitterly cold kitchen window as the skies became slate grey from the north east I believe, and it started snowing . By the time my dad got back there was about an inch , We drove to East  Dulwich and Lordship Lane was like a ghost town, not one shop open and onlt my dads Morris van making fresh tracks in the falling snow.  Sorry mods but how strong those memories remain