Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[Ali1977]

Looking at some of the ENS in deep FI, as well as some of the EPS De-bilt members going very cold in FI, I have a feeling our chase will be very much started today and tomorrow for the week after New Year. I did read something about models not responding to the latest AAM just yet so something may crop up quicker than currently modelled. We shall see!! 
 

A snapshot of some FI charts show a very disorganised PV

Edited December 24, 2021 by Ali1977

[Sceptical]

Couple of pics from Scotland this morning. 

1200 feet.

2500 feet

 

Edited December 24, 2021 by Sceptical

[Methuselah]

Am I the only one here not blaming the models? Surely, the fault lies with those who cannot see (or are in denial of?) the inherent uncertainty? IMO, Snowmageddon at Day 10 is a tad too early for whipping out our measuring sticks?

[Staffmoorlands]

Looking at some extreme temperatures over the next week or so across most of Western Europe 

 

 

[The Eagle]

Not good at all this morning again. Not much can be said really, no straws to grasp at the moment, hopefully soon!

Perfect time to step away for a few days and come back maybe on New Year's in my opinion.

Edited December 24, 2021 by The Eagle

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Am I the only one here not blaming the models? Surely, the fault lies with those who cannot see (or are in denial of?) the inherent uncertainty? IMO, Snowmageddon at Day 10 is a tad too early for whipping out our measuring sticks?

The 500mb anomaly charts for me was the biggest disappointment. So yeah, the models are atrocious 

Next time ill be putting more faith in the Seagulls?

[Gowon]

8 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Looking at some extreme temperatures over the next week or so across most of Western Europe 

 

 

It was only last week those maps had us running about 2c below

Edited December 24, 2021 by D.V.R
typo

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Am I the only one here not blaming the models? Surely, the fault lies with those who cannot see (or are in denial of?) the inherent uncertainty? IMO, Snowmageddon at Day 10 is a tad too early for whipping out our measuring sticks?

It was ever thus Pete

[johncam]

19 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Looking at some extreme temperatures over the next week or so across most of Western Europe 

 

 

My god , that wouldn't look out of place in April 

[chapmanslade]

21 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Am I the only one here not blaming the models? Surely, the fault lies with those who cannot see (or are in denial of?) the inherent uncertainty? IMO, Snowmageddon at Day 10 is a tad too early for whipping out our measuring sticks?

The main issue is the whole thread for people biased towards (and looking for) cold outcomes who fail to look at models objectively. They then get shocked, surprised, appalled, let down and various other irrelevant emotions when it comes to forecasting. Rather than looking for cold or mild why not just be objective about what is there. Yes there were cold options, but there were also mild options. Silly comments about how the Met Office or BBC or an App are biased to mild or will have 'egg on their faces' for not giving out snow warnings 7 days in advance. And then they all vanish when the 'promised' cold doesn't materialise. Not surprising a few well respected folks no longer post on here.

[Alexis]

21 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Looking at some extreme temperatures over the next week or so across most of Western Europe 

 

 

Looks extreme but all the weather apps going for just 13C in Manchester, 14C in London?

[chapmanslade]

2 minutes ago, johncam said:

My god , that wouldn't look out of place in April 

That is an anomaly chart - the month has nothing to do with it

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, johncam said:

My god , that wouldn't look out of place in April 

It’s an anomaly chart, so in April that anomaly would look equally out of place. Temperatures would be more useable and we’d probably lose the low cloud and damp weather too thou

[Monkeypants]

what I do not understand with the models (somebody much better than me may be able to explain) is...they all start on the same day with the exact same pattern on earth for that day. they get the same information added yet can be so different at 72hrs that after that period nothing makes sense to the average person. we then look for our desired weather pattern and when we find it then "that one must be correct" I get that they have different resolutions and parameters but I don't think I've ever seen such a mess with over amplification etc in the last 18months, with failed summer plumes and bust cold from high level blocking. has somthing changed within this time frame with these systems? or is it the case of over reliance on over smart technology actually trying to make things too specific.(sorry for the long post but I seem to have struggled more in last 12 months with models than I have in last 6yrs)

[johncam]

Just now, frosty ground said:

It’s an anomaly chart, so in April that anomaly would look equally out of place. Temperatures would be more useable and we’d probably lose the low cloud and damp weather too thou

Hi Mate,  sorry didn't mean  the anomaly just the actual temps 

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

The main issue is the whole thread for people biased towards (and looking for) cold outcomes who fail to look at models objectively. They then get shocked, surprised, appalled, let down and various other irrelevant emotions when it comes to forecasting. Rather than looking for cold or mild why not just be objective about what is there. Yes there were cold options, but there were also mild options. Silly comments about how the Met Office or BBC or an App are biased to mild or will have 'egg on their faces' for not giving out snow warnings 7 days in advance. And then they all vanish when the 'promised' cold doesn't materialise. Not surprising a few well respected folks no longer post on here.

The snowmageddon posts and worrying about Xmas travel looks a little foolish to say the least and let’s not talk about ridiculously high percentage of snow at 10 days out.

the truth is of course that the envelope of outcomes always had a non cold route it’s just some people would rather bin runs than accept the outcome

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, johncam said:

Hi Mate,  sorry didn't mean  the anomaly just the actual temps 

Indeed some warm days coming up I think we go past the term mild with those temps, not totally unusual thou but noticeable in the extreme 

[chapmanslade]

1 minute ago, Monkeypants said:

what I do not understand with the models (somebody much better than me may be able to explain) is...they all start on the same day with the exact same pattern on earth for that day. they get the same information added yet can be so different at 72hrs that after that period nothing makes sense to the average person. we then look for our desired weather pattern and when we find it then "that one must be correct" I get that they have different resolutions and parameters but I don't think I've ever seen such a mess with over amplification etc in the last 18months, with failed summer plumes and bust cold from high level blocking. has somthing changed within this time frame with these systems? or is it the case of over reliance on over smart technology actually trying to make things too specific.(sorry for the long post but I seem to have struggled more in last 12 months with models than I have in last 6yrs)

They don't start with the same data or resolution or layers. In fact they are already out of date by the time they have run because the starting point will have changed by a few hours by the time it has completed.

Verification data is there and easily available 

The models are mathematical, the forecast is derived from multiple model outputs (or should be). The models are NOT a weather forecast, they are a data source for a forecast by professional meteorologist. Professionals can use verification data and understanding to create a forecast from them.

[blizzard81]

I'd just like to wish everyone on here a lovely Christmas Merry Christmas to you all xxx

[Sceptical]

6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Indeed some warm days coming up I think we go past the term mild with those temps, not totally unusual thou but noticeable in the extreme 

I was surprised to learn that 4 out of the last 5 UK meteorological winters has recorded an 18°c temperature.

[E17boy]

Morning peeps,

Hope you all are well. Wish I could say there was some glimmer on the weather side, but unfortunately we could not have a worse Christmas period and new year. I woke up with a downbeat heart this morning knowing there was not much in the way of cold to be looking forward to. Yet only a few weeks ago we were looking at candy charts did we ever know today we would be staring down the barrel of a southwesterly driven pattern and exceptionally mild temperatures on the horizon. Things might change as we go into January but my gut feeling now is that this mild weather is going to hang around for some time. Given the fact that Europe will be going mild, it will take some time now for it to cool down if winter was to return.

I think the Met Office update will change considerably. This is my punt on what it may say

The start of January starts mild to very mild temperatures more specially in southern most counties. It is expected to be dryer than average in the south whilst there will be more unsettled conditions further north. As we go through January a  SW to a  Westerly pattern is expected to continue with unsettled conditions moving across the country at times. Temperatures are expected to remain above average with some slighter cooler days confined to northern parts. Frost is unlikely to be a problem during this period.

The above is my punt on what the updated Met forecast will be along these lines. 
 

Anyway peeps who knows weather can change and in a few weeks we might be looking back here and saying look  how mild has gone to cold. But who knows. 
 

gave a great day all

regards 

[Gowon]

19 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

The main issue is the whole thread for people biased towards (and looking for) cold outcomes who fail to look at models objectively. They then get shocked, surprised, appalled, let down and various other irrelevant emotions when it comes to forecasting. Rather than looking for cold or mild why not just be objective about what is there. Yes there were cold options, but there were also mild options. Silly comments about how the Met Office or BBC or an App are biased to mild or will have 'egg on their faces' for not giving out snow warnings 7 days in advance. And then they all vanish when the 'promised' cold doesn't materialise. Not surprising a few well respected folks no longer post on here.

Eh? It hasn't deterred John Holmes, BA, Nick F from posting in here?

Who else is well respected?

 

Edited December 24, 2021 by D.V.R
typo

[alexisj9]

10 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Latest 5 day fax chart. Pick the bones out of that. I'm torn about the Exeter update today. They may flip tomorrow but that fax charts tells me it could go just about anywhere thereafter. 

Still a mess, these lows are being very annoying.

[Jordan S]

Looking at Mogreps for later tomorrow into boxing day and a few members are showing more in the way of sleet/snowfall for parts of Wales and the Midlands/northern England particularly high ground later tomorrow night into boxing day with the orientation and timing of the rain band still not certain and has a play to part in any snow risk and while unlikely to be any large amounts there *could* be a covering on high ground.

The UKv output this morning is most likely close though with at least falling snow in some areas.

 Towards the new year becoming mild with unsettled weather mainly for the north, but the first few days of January may see the more unsettled weather head further southeast along with temperatures lowering with a South/Southwest airflow replaced with a more west/northwest flow bringing the possibility of snow back to high ground in the north though perhaps to lower levels behind frontal systems.

Edited December 24, 2021 by jordan smith

[Dorsetbred]

Meanwhile

Let the fax charts be our friend for a while, certainly looking on the mild to very mild for the next week, which will please many over the weekend participating in the festive sea swim sessions.

Still some interesting weather to come with rainfall volumes and a southerly low, which could pack some breeze for us channel coasties..maybe it's time to hit the Alternate model thread for some closer to the day chat...enjoy the festivities where 'er you be..