Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Indeed. I think Rob is at Al Jazeera now 

Dan Corbett was the man

The eight legged octopus,

Fronts being sentient beings,

Spray paint for frost,

Weather man.

[Singularity]

Starting points for spells usually take until within 8-10 days range to begin appearing more than occasionally... so the idea that mild patterns tend to count down no problem is tied to the underlying frequency distribution - they happen far more often so you will see them count down more.

That says nothing of whether modelling is right to predict one in the 8+ day range at any given time. After all, signals that force changes from such tend to be over-dampened in the longer range. Very rare that we see a major pattern change out of a subtropical high setup persistently advertised much more than a week in advance.

[blizzard81]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Dan Corbett was the man

The eight legged octopus,

Fronts being sentient beings,

Spray paint for frost,

Weather man.

Absolutely bud. Another legend. Sadly lacking these days.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Absolutely bud. Another legend. Sadly lacking these days.

Schaff has always had that little bit of endearment about him. When he first started out he had a mischievous schoolkid personality about him. Always dropping the ball and getting the giggles. Saw him voted UK's fave weather presenter I think.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Schaff has always had that little bit of endearment about him. When he first started out he had a mischievous schoolkid personality about him. Always dropping the ball and getting the giggles. Saw him voted UK's fave weather presenter I think.

Yep. Probably the last truly charismatic weather presenter before they became extinct. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Yep. Probably the last truly charismatic weather presenter before they became extinct. 

Still remember his 'frozen ball' forecast 

[syed2878]

3 hours ago, Rollo said:

The winter of 62-63 remains fresh in my memory ,I was mid twenties so adult or not I enjoyed the sledging. I still hav e the D.W.R for the main 3 winter month s And still find myself saying if only.

Enough reminiscing , let me wish all members a very merry Christmas and a happy snowy new year.

 That must have been one amazing winter I don’t think we will see the likes of that kind of winter again 1947 1963 they will only be memories for those who experienced it and for those of us watched documentaries about those winters we will I don’t think experience anything like that given the current climate. Well what a let down by all models even the EC doesn’t have much to Cheer about today

[Canalboy]

The best female weather presenter in my Meteorological book was Barbara Edwards.  From the halcyon days of the stick on symbol.

[Man With Beard]

36 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Wrf has a few flakes ne midlands xmas morning -

Snow chances further north have snuck back in as the day has gone on. Even the ECM tonight was a little more optimistic for the weekend. You should be ok in Buxton!

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Snow chances further north have snuck back in as the day has gone on. Even the ECM tonight was a little more optimistic for the weekend. You should be ok in Buxton!

A big netweather boxing day party at mine

Imagine

[blizzard81]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Still remember his 'frozen ball' forecast 

Ha ha ha indeed. When spontaneity was still allowed. Happy days!

[alexisj9]

20 minutes ago, nobble said:

Helen willets just hinted it’s all still to play for north wales and north England 

you never know

If only the low would surprise and distrupt after all, now that would be nice lol, I hate that low to the south, Spain Portugal one I mean, lifting things up.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Ha ha ha indeed. When spontaneity was still allowed. Happy days!

News presenter- 'Looks like you've got a frozen ball behind you'

Schaff- 'Ooooh yeah, just the one *giggle*'

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Schaff has always had that little bit of endearment about him. When he first started out he had a mischievous schoolkid personality about him. Always dropping the ball and getting the giggles. Saw him voted UK's fave weather presenter I think.

most famous line from him before that bitter sweet feb 09 incident - 'we are getting ever more certain now that this cold spell is coming our way'

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

News presenter- 'Looks like you've got a frozen ball behind you'

Schaff- 'Ooooh yeah, just the one *giggle*'

Ha ha ha  

[Wingman Blue]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

If only the low would surprise and distrupt after all, now that would be nice lol, I hate that low to the south, Spain Portugal one I mean, lifting things up.

The continent’s currently a fridge.  And after a brief high of 9.2 here today it’s currently 3.1•C (Ox/Warks border)

48 hours to Christmas Day evening….

[syed2878]

2 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Gonna have to disagree mate...firstly last winter delivered the goods to a few places...Scotland did very well...but I think some seem to think they don't exist. Plus your talking about a big letdown like it was the end of winter and nothing had delivered! When infact its barely got started.

We've already seen one blast of snow at the end of November...yet all we have witnessed is one fail regarding the Xmas period cold snap...hardly the end of the world is it my lad.

  I do agree totally with blizzard 81 it is hardly surprising that Scotland did well last year they always do in winters the location is further north so of course they do well in winters it’s obvious

[blizzard81]

Latest 5 day fax chart. Pick the bones out of that. I'm torn about the Exeter update today. They may flip tomorrow but that fax charts tells me it could go just about anywhere thereafter. 

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

  I do agree totally with blizzard 81 it is hardly surprising that Scotland did well last year they always do in winters the location is further north so of course they do well in winters it’s obvious

I think we had 54cm in total last winter 

28 so far this winter period

Edited December 23, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[blizzard81]

Who's going for a flip in the models this morning?

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Who's going for a flip in the models this morning?

Boxing day is still 48 hours away. 1.2% chance of a flip & full on easterly. 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Boxing day is still 48 hours away. 1.2% chance of a flip & full on easterly. 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

We live in hope

[Tamara]

I do understand the feelings of UK members about the lapsed cold spell, but I am excited about the upcoming sub tropical ridge resident across my new homeland next week which looks set to produce afternoon values nudging towards and maybe even above the 21C mark and which seems surreal for the heart of winter..Its one thing having a winter break and some winter Mediterranean sun, but when its your new home it makes you stop and try to remember what month of the year it is because you are not getting on a plane back anytime.... Quite surreal for a first winter living out of the UK.

Feliz Natal x

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Tamara said:

I do understand the feelings of UK members about the lapsed cold spell, but I am excited about the upcoming sub tropical ridge resident across my new homeland next week which looks set to produce afternoon values nudging towards and maybe even above the 21C mark and which seems surreal for the heart of winter..Its one thing having a winter break and some winter Mediterranean sun, but when its your new home it makes you stop and try to remember what month of the year it is because you are not getting on a plane back anytime.... Quite surreal for a first winter living out of the UK.

Feliz Natal x

Enjoy Tamara. We will probably get the inverse of your 21 degrees. 12 degrees with dank grey leaden skies