Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[Don]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

FI GEFS are v v v good….

Wait till they get within T48! 

[Malarky]

20 minutes ago, Don said:

Wait till they get within T48! 

T0 is my new rule.

[jvenge]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

That moment when you wake Up on 24th of December to this. Its quarter past one and still at -1C. It was supposed to be a mild Christmas and tomorrow local weather agency put Up warning for 10-15cm Snow. Could this just be the most memorable Christmas in my lifetime? Hope UK does get compensation in the 2nd half of winter somehow if we manage to slow Down the vortex somehow. If tomorrow I get 10cm and next day as predicted Tmax of only -5C winter can finish,thats enough for me and roll on spring +25C and summer under El Nino +35C, have a Happy Christmas gang and keep the spirits high.

Looks good. I got a dusting this morning and there will be a thaw tomorrow before snow falling from late Saturday for a few days. I'm not brave enough to guess the amounts - models are fickle when it comes to Moldovan precipitation events.

[Methuselah]

51 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Seen as I was one of the members who was originally more bullish about the potential, I think it's fair I provided an explanation as to why it went pete tong.

There was a last minute downgrade of trough disruption from the Atlantic low to the Scandi low due to an overactive Azores / Iberian high which significantly narrowed the trough disruption zone. Trough disruption was an important mechanism required to ensure enough linkage between the Atlantic low & Scandi trough thereby ensuring effective sliding. The resultant lack of linkage worked to reduce cold air advection westwards out of Scandi which allowed the low to push further north east. Simply put the lack of TD ->  less easterly influence -> Atlantic low has more space to develop.

Unfortunately it was also a negative reinforcement of blocking as the strengthening of the Atlantic low helped repell any further westwards advances from Scandi. This diverted CAA advection towards Greenland.. which has the opposite effect of WAA thereby working to breakdown the Greenland high. This deteriorated the negative NAO further.

The failed trough disruption is the main cause, underlying likely to be caused by strengthening of the Azores high.

Only a 5% downgrade in the trough disruption was enough to cause complete failure. The models never failed as a collective, given some output was showing a failure. This means modelling of the result of a less optimal TD & Azores profile was correct. The problem was that models failed to detect any strengthening of the Azores / jet. This lack of detection & last minute downgrade in TD & upgrade in Azores supports the idea that a sudden solar / telleconnection event may have been responsible. 

(Posted again as previous post was at 1am)

All of those 'things that went wrong' are right enough, Kasim; but it's the 'compared to what?' question that fascinates me: Given that the optimal 'snow-event' was only ever predicted by a handful of runs, and was very far from being unanimous, my suspicion is that confirmation bias played a big part; our, only human, tendency to laud what we like but bin what we don't can make for a horribly skewed view of reality?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, snowsummer said:

May i take this quiet moment on here to wish each and everyone you a good Christmas.  Mods, posters, lurkers, coldies, heat lovers. Just everyone! Youve all helped get me through another year, more than you'll  ever know. Enjoy the festive time with your families, friends. Make memories  you can and keep forever. Thanks everyone 

Thanks for that gesture of goodwill...im aware you experienced a close and harsh loss of a loved one sometime back,and I'm equally aware this time of year is gonna be especially difficult for you. Your in my thoughts...and this goes for everyone on this Forum who are right now experiencing difficult times,many of you probably keeping it to yourselves because it's so hard to open up about it..

Usually I would say enjoy Xmas like its your last,and always tell  loved ones how much they mean to you everyday,because once someone as gone we lose that chance to say important things we never said to them..and that really can grind away at you as times go by.

So for those of you that can really enjoy this festive period with your families and make up for any lost time that may of occurred over recent times,due to other commitments etc. Those of you who have lost close ones and may have a difficult time this year coping with the events and may even be suffering with loneliness,I say from my heart I really do hope things improve for you with time and your in my thoughts...hell im a decent chap...feel free to pm me at anytime of day...I can guarantee you I will try and put a smile on your face and lift your spirits.

So in a nutshell that's me done till New years day..got family coming and its gonna be a difficult period for my dad who's heath is now declining to the point he needs literally 24hr monitoring and assistant. But I will be going out of my way to make it as comfortable and enjoying for him as I possibly can...hey he's my dad..gr8 bloke...always used to be bubbly like me...but all of that's gone..

Ok we've missed out on a potential snow event and cold snap for the Xmas period...hey guys and gals very early days....im still liking the NH sypnotics and I still feel confident we can get some favourable conditions before much longer.. dont let it grind you down...let's ride out this mild spell and be ready to go again come the New Year.

To all on here...lurkers and guests included,even those who don't like me have a fabulous Xmas and a very prosperous and healthy New Year.

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

All of those 'things that went wrong' are right enough, Kasim; but it's the 'compared to what?' question that fascinates me: Given that the optimal 'snow-event' was only ever predicted by a handful of runs, and was very far from being unanimous, my suspicion is that confirmation bias played a big part; our, only human, tendency to laud what we like but bin what we don't can make for a horribly skewed view of reality?

Our biases definitely took a part but that's what we're always like, it's nothing new, plus if narnia happens we'd have predicted it first, even before the papers get ahold of it

[Dunstable Snow]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Thanks for that gesture of goodwill...im aware you experienced a close and harsh loss of a loved one sometime back,and I'm equally aware this time of year is gonna be especially difficult for you. Your in my thoughts...and this goes for everyone on this Forum who are right now experiencing difficult times,many of you probably keeping it to yourselves because it's so hard to open up about it..

Usually I would say enjoy Xmas like its your last,and always tell  loved ones how much they mean to you everyday,because once someone as gone we lose that chance to say important things we never said to them..and that really can grind away at you as times go by.

So for those of you that can really enjoy this festive period with your families and make up for any lost time that may of occurred over recent times,due to other commitments etc. Those of you who have lost close ones and may have a difficult time this year coping with the events and may even be suffering with loneliness,I say from my heart I really do hope things improve for you with time and your in my thoughts...hell im a decent chap...feel free to pm me at anytime of day...I can guarantee you I will try and put a smile on your face and lift your spirits.

So in a nutshell that's me done till New years day..got family coming and its gonna be a difficult period for my dad who's heath is now declining to the point he needs literally 24hr monitoring and assistant. But I will be going out of my way to make it as comfortable and enjoying for him as I possibly can...hey he's my dad..gr8 bloke...always used to be bubbly like me...but all of that's gone..

Ok we've missed out on a potential snow event and cold snap for the Xmas period...hey guys and gals very early days....im still liking the NH sypnotics and I still feel confident we can get some favourable conditions before much longer.. dont let it grind you down...let's ride out this mild spell and be ready to go again come the New Year.

To all on here...lurkers and guests included,even those who don't like me have a fabulous Xmas and a very prosperous and healthy New Year.

A terrific post - which I thoroughly endorse. There are far more important things in life than whether or not it’s going to snow. 

[Lloyd1]

Just memorising over 2010, the scenes. 

[Don]

22 minutes ago, Malarky said:

T0 is my new rule.

After the recent fiasco, I think that's bloody sensible! 

[Lloyd1]

Also looking at 2010, the Azores pushed up in to the UK pre freeze and extremely mild weather was recorded. 

Remember this little video analysis, 

 

Yes I understand this is highly unlikely just trying to lift everyone’s spirits.

Edited December 24, 2021 by Lloyd1

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 hours ago, That ECM said:

Thought I could leave alone until the 27th but this raised an eyebrow.

Indeed, keep an eye on the period from this point.  I’ll call it, LPs forced to dive /disrupt SE into near continent due HP to our NE (not a start to a prolonged freeze as I believe there’s a lot of atmosphere activity ahead).  A lot imo instore to quench weather enthusiast as winter progresses.  I’m going to keep focus for that period and just let Xmas week be just that….certainly for down here in SE

BFTP.

 

Edited December 24, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mair Snaw]

Merry Christmas to each and everyone of you mad lot... this is by far the best weather forum around, i might not have much of a clue about what some of you post in here but its always fun to come here and see what enthusiasm you all put in.

@MATTWOLVES enjoy your time with your dad and give him a bloody amazing time mate.. treasure it make memories.

Anybody in here who is struggling with anything be it mentally or physically never be afraid to ask for the help you need and deserve..as a carer to a long suffering wife i know how difficult it is. So stay positive and never ever be to proud to ask..

So what if it dont snaw... plenty of other days in the year for it to happen.

Merry Christmas everybody.

[Don]

I'm going to be the Grinch and report that the latest Metoffice update has removed the mentioning of colder weather going into January and replaced it with an unsettled Atlantic dominance!  

Anyway, have a great Christmas all and sod the weather! 

[BarometerCat]

I sometimes struggle this time of year and the odd cold hunt (even if failed) does help.   Always learning something new here and is really fun when things get lively! My family will keep me busy otherwise over the next but will check back...

Merry Christmas all and to those taking time out, I hope you return to boom  worthy charts of whatever weather  persuasion..

 

Edited December 24, 2021 by B-C

[Swave Snow]

20 minutes ago, Don said:

I'm going to be the Grinch and report that the latest Metoffice update has removed the mentioning of colder weather going into January and replaced it with an unsettled Atlantic dominance!  

Anyway, have a great Christmas all and sod the weather! 

right at the end of January so it could change 

[Staffmoorlands]

ICON keeping it mild for New Years Eve

 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

ICON keeping it mild for New Years Eve

 

Daffodil green shoots early New Year.....

[Eagle Eye]

Currently the upper air is the only trustworthy thing on the models, with very good model reliability up to 150 hours or so with good model consistency considering how the other models have faired.

It's been two weeks since the large trough ejection that caused the Mayfield tornado occurred in the US and I guess we should have been paying more attention to it as it seems to have indirectly and directly influenced our weather more than we would have first thought.

Initially it moved north into Canada but we can see the initial weakening devolution of the main stream across the northern hemisphere, no real pattern evolving just yet.

We can now see a pattern evolving in the disconnecting stream with the Atlantic part of the stream being pushed further down with strong momentum and therefore strong energy.

The momentum didn't last long as the energy within the air weakens and so does the pressure on the air causing it to flatten rapidly in its 'descent' and now the initial ejecting trough has properly split into two parts both now leaving North America slowly.

Now we watch as the split causes it to race slightly perhaps delaying the proper evolution of the current wave into Greenland as it seems to have caused a slight rotation by pushing down on the air around Spain.

Looking further on from now 

We can see the broad pattern evolving for a second Rossby wave as shown by the modelsare with the air coming up from near Spain on a high gradient but there is the winds east of us that could be pushed or the winds we see coming up from around Spain could be pushed in a more easterly direction once they reach above us but this is all unlikely for now and just speculation but I'll update you on the pattern taking shape soon.

Merry Christmas everyone this is my last post for the night 

[Acupuncturist]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Thanks for that gesture of goodwill...im aware you experienced a close and harsh loss of a loved one sometime back,and I'm equally aware this time of year is gonna be especially difficult for you. Your in my thoughts...and this goes for everyone on this Forum who are right now experiencing difficult times,many of you probably keeping it to yourselves because it's so hard to open up about it..

Usually I would say enjoy Xmas like its your last,and always tell  loved ones how much they mean to you everyday,because once someone as gone we lose that chance to say important things we never said to them..and that really can grind away at you as times go by.

So for those of you that can really enjoy this festive period with your families and make up for any lost time that may of occurred over recent times,due to other commitments etc. Those of you who have lost close ones and may have a difficult time this year coping with the events and may even be suffering with loneliness,I say from my heart I really do hope things improve for you with time and your in my thoughts...hell im a decent chap...feel free to pm me at anytime of day...I can guarantee you I will try and put a smile on your face and lift your spirits.

So in a nutshell that's me done till New years day..got family coming and its gonna be a difficult period for my dad who's heath is now declining to the point he needs literally 24hr monitoring and assistant. But I will be going out of my way to make it as comfortable and enjoying for him as I possibly can...hey he's my dad..gr8 bloke...always used to be bubbly like me...but all of that's gone..

Ok we've missed out on a potential snow event and cold snap for the Xmas period...hey guys and gals very early days....im still liking the NH sypnotics and I still feel confident we can get some favourable conditions before much longer.. dont let it grind you down...let's ride out this mild spell and be ready to go again come the New Year.

To all on here...lurkers and guests included,even those who don't like me have a fabulous Xmas and a very prosperous and healthy New Year.

I would echo this. i am a bit of a lurker on this site as I dont really have the knowledge to contribute much. I lost my husband to cancer at Christmas last year and so obviously this year its a bit tough but coming on this site and following the twist and turns of our (usually fruitless) search for Cold and snow has proved a welcome distraction. Thanks to everyone who takes the time and trouble to post on here and I hope you all have a Lovely Christmas and a fabulous new year. 

 

[Don]

The 16-30 day Metoffice forecast has now also updated and little sign of anything wintry to the 22nd!

To think that little more than a few days ago, there was fair optimism for a cold easterly early January but looks like it has gone Pete Tong spectacular style.  Perhaps the majority of the long range models for winter were correct after all.....

Still time for it to redeem itself of course and will have to see where we stand after Christmas. 

Anyway, enough from me!

Edited December 24, 2021 by Don

[Lukesluckybunch]

gfs rolling out.whats going on at 138h..doubt it will get up too much energy to the east of it

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

The 16-30 day Metoffice forecast has now also updated and little sign of anything wintry to the 22nd!

To think that little more than a few days ago, there was fair optimism for a cold easterly early January but looks like it has gone Pete Tong spectacular style.  Perhaps the majority of the long range models for winter were correct after all.....

Still time for it to redeem itself of course and will have to see where we stand after Christmas.

That's good then, as more chance it will flip back now, very mild spell on the ropes already at 144 on GFS, heights trying to push north

[That ECM]

5 hours ago, That ECM said:

Probably gone at 4.30 but if met keep talking of a cold first half of jan something has to give.

Met killed that then.

[LetItSnow!]

6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

That's good then, as more chance it will flip back now, very mild spell on the ropes already at 144 on GFS, heights trying to push north

And it starts again...  Happy Christmas to everyone

[E17boy]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

The 16-30 day Metoffice forecast has now also updated and little sign of anything wintry to the 22nd!

To think that little more than a few days ago, there was fair optimism for a cold easterly early January but looks like it has gone Pete Tong spectacular style.  Perhaps the majority of the long range models for winter were correct after all.....

Still time for it to redeem itself of course and will have to see where we stand after Christmas. 

Anyway, enough from me!

Hi,

This was near enough on my thoughts which I posted earlier this morning.  It’ does look like doom and gloom for the next 2 weeks at least. However 30 days ahead is very tight to get right and no doubt things will change hopefully The thing that is going to start to become worrying is that by the time two thirds of January is done and this mild pattern has not shifted then we will be looking into February for winter to bite. Not saying it will not change before that anything can happen if the past weeks experience was to go by. 

Let’s hope we will get a breakthrough well before then. Worst case is that if this does go on then February can still deliver and it can deliver cold quite late (2018) comes to mind. 
 

regards