Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[Penrith Snow]

7 hours ago, Tamara said:

I do understand the feelings of UK members about the lapsed cold spell, but I am excited about the upcoming sub tropical ridge resident across my new homeland next week which looks set to produce afternoon values nudging towards and maybe even above the 21C mark and which seems surreal for the heart of winter..Its one thing having a winter break and some winter Mediterranean sun, but when its your new home it makes you stop and try to remember what month of the year it is because you are not getting on a plane back anytime.... Quite surreal for a first winter living out of the UK.

Feliz Natal x

Hi Tamara

i feel your joy, having recently moved to South East Spain I like nothing more than a intense Iberia High in late winter.

January/February 2020 brought many such spells and I remember many Winter BBQs with the temperature touching 23c

I always return to the UK for 6 weeks over Christmas hoping to see some snow but as usual the weather has other ideas.

What’s worse is that I now have Covid so can’t return to Spain to enjoy the warm sunshine, stuck here instead looking at charts that are a UK Nightmare but a Spanish dream.

I used to love UK winters and the hunt for snow but now the hunt is futile and I can’t stand the mildness, wet and darkness of a now typical UK winter.

Enjoy the Bartlett!  

Feliz Navidad

[winterof79]

Merry Christmas.

Edited December 24, 2021 by winterof79

[cyclonic happiness]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

Yes, hopefully lessons learnt will be don't go over the top in future and respect views from others which don't necesserily mirror yours! Talking of digging in, surely with pretty much unanimous charts like this for the turn of the year the Met will have to adjust their longer term forecast, if they don't, then they must be seeing something we don't have access to?!

 

If they do have charts we don't have access too, it makes you wonder why we bother at all?  If we can't get hold of model data which is fairy accurate, we will always be lead up the garden path and by no fault of our own, regardless of what some people say.  We don't just make up that the models are showing a cold and snowy spell, we are shown it by the data.

[Kasim Awan]

7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Merry Christmas.

Euro4 snow totals.

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM mean at 240h is absolutley horrendous

[georgiedre]

I remember someone posted a few weeks back that he didn't expect any change to colder weather until after 2nd January this would coincide with a new moon . I wonder if there's any correlation between the 2.. can't remember who it was

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ECM mean at 240h is absolutley horrendous

really cant work our climate out,its way too mild for what it should be! depressing weather here in winter if im honest,i was looking at weather in oslo norway yesterday it had highs of -5 and minus double digits at night time..what a difference a few thousand miles to the northeast makes!

[Chesil View]

The only glimmer of light this xmas eve is that there are colder runs starting from 3rd Jan in gfs the ensembles. Maybe a trend to keep an eye on and Perhaps this what the meto extended is picking up on.

Taking a few days off now.

Happy Xmas everyone.

Edited December 24, 2021 by Broadmayne blizzard

[joggs]

Just want to say merry Xmas to all and thanks for making this forum what it is.

Here's to the next chase (let down)

[SnowBlake]

Just popping in to wish all a very merrry Christmas from a snowy Latvia. Heading from the East to just south of Riga shortly for Christmas with other family members where it is snowing moderately and expected to for the whole day. Could top the 8 inches last Christmas eve/day.

Very odd yesterday, we went skiing at the highest point in Latvia and in the cafe an English guy was trying to choose a beer and I asked if he needed some assistance. 

I then saw his LFC grey top and thought I recognised him from my flight over as i remember someone wearing this. Turns out he was on my flight, not only that, he is returning on the same flight as me also.

Anyway, eat, drink and be merry all

Edited December 24, 2021 by SnowBlake

[Polar Maritime]

NetWx-sr for the big day and UKV for boxing day.

 

[Faronstream]

GFS 0Z average is clearly not with agreement considering new year/beginning of january for northern europe, it looks weird that the heavy cold air will get swung away that easily.

 

Last-minute snowfall overnight gave me a white christmas this year, merry christmas to you all!! 

[jayb1989]

Really is shaping up to be a very mild period as we head towards new year according to the ECM. The flowers will be thinking it’s spring time. Think we are more likely to be reaching for t-shirts and shorts than gloves and scarf.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

GFS 0Z average is clearly not with agreement considering new year/beginning of january for northern europe, it looks weird that the heavy cold air will get swung away that easily.

 

Last-minute snowfall overnight gave me a white christmas this year, merry christmas to you all!! 

that looks amazing,whats the weather doing there currently?

[Faronstream]

6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

that looks amazing,whats the weather doing there currently?

Right now it's -11 outside, i'm expecting the max-temp today to be around -8 at noon and sunny.

[Sceptical]

23 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

really cant work our climate out,its way too mild for what it should be! depressing weather here in winter if im honest,i was looking at weather in oslo norway yesterday it had highs of -5 and minus double digits at night time..what a difference a few thousand miles to the northeast makes!

The UK isn't a cold or snowy place, the vast majority enjoy an oceanic or temperate climate. Your best chance for snow and cold in the UK is this area:

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2021 by Sceptical

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Faronstream said:

Right now it's -11 outside, i'm expecting the max-temp today to be around -8 at noon and sunny.

If I can find it, I know it's a bit off topic but my friend took this in Sweden a while back, still plenty to play for in Winter considering this wasn't too far away in weather terms in November, wouldn't mind that lot coming over here

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

8 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Right now it's -11 outside, i'm expecting the max-temp today to be around -8 at noon and sunny.

very nice,would love a flavour of that!

[Lukesluckybunch]

8 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

The UK isn't a cold or snowy place, the vast majority enjoy an oceanic or temperate climate. Your best chance for snow and cold in the UK is this area:

 

 

 

haha that looks a nice area to be in,yes i agree we are not in the right location for any sutained cold.thats why when we get a decent cold spell its a real bonus!

[stainesbloke]

Very changeable here in Prague. Was freezing all day yesterday but then it started warming up and began raining late in the evening and it has poured all night. Wind is strong and it’s mild at 8°C. Big temperature variations to come over the next couple of days, should be interesting. Tomorrow will go from 6°C to -6°C with rain turning to snow, then Boxing Day sees a high of -4°C by day and down to -11°C overnight! Back to mild and wet later next week. 

Edited December 24, 2021 by stainesbloke

[Seasonality]

32 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

GFS 0Z average is clearly not with agreement considering new year/beginning of january for northern europe, it looks weird that the heavy cold air will get swung away that easily.

 

Last-minute snowfall overnight gave me a white christmas this year, merry christmas to you all!! 

Same here in my location 30km to the North East of Warsaw. Here's a pic from my morning run today. Was looking a bit touch and go for Xmas here in the model output recently, but the North East quadrant of Poland at least is comfortably frozen. And we're expecting a sunny day tomorrow and Boxing Day with lows in the minus teens

Happy Christmas everyone!

 

[sebastiaan1973]

Plume. Extreme temperatures at the end of the year. A very small chance for an easterly in the first week of January.

[johnholmes]

49 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

NetWx-sr for the big day and UKV for boxing day.

 

Post some piccs of your snow when it arrives PM please

[syed2878]

41 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

really cant work our climate out,its way too mild for what it should be! depressing weather here in winter if im honest,i was looking at weather in oslo norway yesterday it had highs of -5 and minus double digits at night time..what a difference a few thousand miles to the northeast makes!

  Sadly that’s the UK climate for you. UK has one of the crapest climate living next to the Atlantic we end up getting crap winters and summers. The model outputs we getting at the moment don’t really inspire me to look at them I hear the Sun is quite active I think that’s caused lot of the output to go the way they have done let’s hope the EC means this morning improve or we will be left with nothing but mild Atlantic crap. Anyway guys hope you all enjoy your self tomorrow with your friends family and relatives and keep safe.

[jayb1989]

Dire output for coldies this morning