Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[feb1991blizzard]

Could be a better run coming up here..............

[Laurence]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Could be a better run coming up here..............

Don't..........

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Could be a better run coming up here..............

Always will be chances with a 1055 Arctic high in the mix, if only we can get the Atlantic profile to behave.

[Hammer50]

I have found out where all our snow went Japan andTurkey.

[Man With Beard]

49 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Snow poss for some boxing day. Maybe 

Yes of course the snow threat is not over for major northern English cities. It's still a nailbiter for these areas. Birmingham and south will need a snow machine.

[jacke]

2 hours ago, Come rain snow or shine said:

In Peterborough - Boxing Day, I'm pretty sure.  There may have been a light snow shower early xmas day... at maybe 7.30 a.m. 

Yes Boxing Day in the Peterborough area, very heavy for these parts. Not much after through the whole freeze but that snow just hung around.

[Sweatyman]

1 minute ago, Hammer50 said:

I have found out where all our snow went Japan andTurkey.

Always does!

[Battleground Snow]

First run after the EC 46 puts out that garbage and this is what we have, a pub run special

[mbrothers]

On 23/12/2021 at 22:45, Hammer50 said:

I have found out where all our snow went Japan andTurkey.

And Egypt 

[Allseasons-Si]

The chase is back on guys,..C'mon don't be downbeat now hey cos we still have plenty of winter left yet...

now give us a big wave,...wave 2

 

there could be possibilities from here.

Edited December 23, 2021 by Allseasons-si
Added info

[Don]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The chase is back on guys,..C'mon don't be downbeat now hey cos we still have plenty on winter left yet...

now give us a big wave,...wave 2

It's going to be a while before I have enough energy to join the next roller coaster ride, unless it remains out of action for the next two months!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The chase is back on guys,..C'mon don't be downbeat now hey cos we still have plenty on winter left yet...

now give us a big wave,...wave 2

 

its all flattened now again.

[Kasim Awan]

Wrf has a few flakes ne midlands xmas morning -

[Kasim Awan]

Wrf also produces a spell of marginal snow far n mids / into Peaks into northern England boxing day. Few cms over 150m here.

[nobble]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Wrf has a few flakes ne midlands xmas morning -

Tantalisingly close

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

its all flattened now again.

Yeh but well into fl,lets hope that we can build on that day ten timeframe> where everything was starting to look good with the Pac ridge and some amplitude getting going in the Atlantic sector

the latest MJO looks to take a dip towards the COD but the forecast looks to rebound into high amp phase 7 again,...this is reflected in the models of late of a more mobile pattern,are the models starting to sniff out the re-amp?

[nobble]

Helen willets just hinted it’s all still to play for north wales and north England 

you never know

[blizzard81]

I've been thinking about the Exeter updates these last few days. They never went for a cold Christmas so kudos to them it has to be said. More importantly now is the timeframe moving forwards. They have been quite steadfast about a cold start to 2022. They are on a roll now so respect must be given. Looking at the latest ops seems to add credence to their outlook. 

[blizzard81]

Just now, nobble said:

Helen willets just hinted it’s all still to play for north wales and north England 

you never know

She's a legend . One of the best and certainly the best female weather presenter ever. 

[chris55]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Models tend to fair a lot better with mild/zonal/average conditions and can usually forecast a couple/few weeks ahead with confidence in such set ups. 

90% of the time you'll see mild count down to T0 without any hiccups. With that, let's look where we're at...

ECM D10 mean- Iberian heights

GFS- Iberian heights out as far as the eyes can see

I'm sorry, some won't want to hear this, but IMO January is looking odds on mild out to perhaps week 2 at least. There's nothing to suggest to me that we'll rid ourselves of that Iberian HP any time soon. All of this well signposted by the seasonals, which have been consistent with European HP.

Putting the output to one side, merry Christmas to all.

More often than not a cold signal will appear in the models and ensemble suites in the 7–10 day range. 
 

Obviously the prevailing and default westerly pattern will continue in the models until a blocking signal is picked up. 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

She's a legend . One of the best and certainly the best female weather presenter ever. 

Agree there. Has always come across as a genuinely warm and nice person too.

John Hammond always came across as a top bloke as well.

Edited December 23, 2021 by CreweCold

[nobble]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

She's a legend . One of the best and certainly the best female weather presenter ever. 

All the best snow rampers get bumped

rob mcelwee and John Hammond to name but 2

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Agree there. Has always come across as a genuinely warm and nice person too.

Absolutely mate. I didn't know she was still presenting. So glad she is. 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, nobble said:

All the best snow rampers get bumped

rob mcelwee and John Hammond to name but 2

Indeed. I think Rob is at Al Jazeera now 

[Kasim Awan]

Arpege joins the ne wales, n mids & peak district camp...

It has the front stalling in these areas boxing day. Initial snow line 325m, however this could lower to x metres given ample precipitation lead cooling.