Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[johncam]

24 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Well EC 46 suggesting positive temp anomalies all of January,

Luckily it never gets anything right

Could we not move the UK same latitude  just south of Greenland

[Anwar Habu]

I'm thinking what  contingency forecast was for possible very mild Jan month ? That is setting up on models now 

[Mike Poole]

29 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Well EC 46 suggesting positive temp anomalies all of January,

Luckily it never gets anything right

Yes, it is tripe!  Always thought so, but heavily promoted by some when the sun is in their star.   Which it isn’t now!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Well I can see some stubborn Heights to the South..but I'm also seeing an hell of alot of Blocking to the North! What's gonna give!

@Mike Poole everyone says the ecm is king..yet some mock the 46,which is from the same stable.. apart from this and glosea what else do we have for longer term forecasting of any credence!

With blocking like this surely we have a chance!

Edited December 23, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Rollo]

When did the snow start in 62? Afront moved south on Christmas Day and came to a halt further south on Boxing Day and this was responsible for the heavy snow in the south on Boxing Day. My area just hat snow showers.

[MJB]

46 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Well EC 46 suggesting positive temp anomalies all of January,

Luckily it never gets anything right

Not to be believed it's performance was shocking , last week it gave us 3 weeks of blocking , waste of time 

[Mike Poole]

32 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Well I can see some stubborn Heights to the South..but I'm also seeing an hell of alot of Blocking to the North! What's gonna give!

@Mike Poole everyone says the ecm is king..yet some mock the 46,which is from the same stable.. apart from this and glosea what else do we have for longer term forecasting of any credence!

I said I would be gone by now, but this last week model watching, it’s like with a really boozy night out that ends up wrong!  There’s that post mortem session the following day when you piece together the nightmare as it unfolded….and then you blame the EC 46.  It was wrong horribly wrong, the op runs can be forgiven but this one had winter on a plate, now a wet plate is being blown at winter amid rain run amok.  

(By the way I haven’t actually looked at the latest EC 46, I can’t, I don’t have access to it).  It is just how I feel.  

And this really is the last one before Christmas on here!! 

Edited December 23, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Kasim Awan]

Icon 18z bit south of 12z run @ 54h

Edited December 23, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I said I would be gone by now, but this last week model watching, it’s like with a really boozy night out that ends up wrong!  There’s that post mortem session the following day when you piece together the nightmare as it unfolded….and then you blame the EC 46.  It was wrong horribly wrong, the op runs can be forgiven but this one had winter on a plate, now a wet plate is being blown at winter amid rain run amok.  

(By the way I haven’t actually looked at the latest EC 46, I can’t, I don’t have access to it).  It is just how I feel.  

Yeh no problem Mike...personally I think  all these LRF models flap around,I've seen it from glosea more than once..what I will say Mike is...there remains quite alot of Blocking towards the North into early January...and perhaps a reduction in those stronger heights around iberia...perhaps that's what Exeter are seeing?

[Don]

27 minutes ago, Anwar Habu said:

I'm thinking what  contingency forecast was for possible very mild Jan month ? That is setting up on models now 

No, yesterday's update is going for a colder than average January slightly more likely than normal.

[Don]

10 minutes ago, MJB said:

Not to be believed it's performance was shocking , last week it gave us 3 weeks of blocking , waste of time 

Yes, but you can bet your bottom dollar it will be correct this time!  I had a feeling this update would flip.  Wonder if the Metoffice will backtrack on their cold first half to January now?

Honestly, the weather gods and models are being really cruel to us coldies at the moment! 

[Chesil View]

59 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Well EC 46 suggesting positive temp anomalies all of January,

Luckily it never gets anything right

Rofl.

This being same that ecm 46 that had perfectly positioned northern blocking throughout January.

Ecm equals 

Easterly Con Merchant.

 

[Jason M]

2 hours ago, Staffmoorlands said:

All models agreeing on a very mild few days next week. ECM fairly typical of what the others show
 

That is a truly astonishing chart. Just look at the sheer size of that plus 10c 850 airmass! Records would be smashed to pieces across much of Europe. Global warming is coming on fast

[Blessed Weather]

Before we chuck the EC46 out of the window, bear in mind it is the ECMWF ENS, extended twice a week (on Thursday and Monday) to run to 46 days ahead. If you read the ECMWF article at the link below, you'll see the EC46 uses the MJO forecasts as "an important source of predictability on the monthly time scale". And we know the MJO signal has been all over the place for several weeks, thanks to interference from the La Nina base state and a tropical storm.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/extended-range-forecasts

Edited December 23, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Clarified - 'MJO signal'.

[Don]

29 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Well I can see some stubborn Heights to the South..but I'm also seeing an hell of alot of Blocking to the North! What's gonna give!

Wasn't that the issue during winter 2018/19 where there was plenty of northern blocking but also blocking to our south which prevented any sustained cold reaching our shores?!

Honestly, I don't know whether to laugh or cry after the last couple of days! 

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Jason M said:

That is a truly astonishing chart. Just look at the sheer size of that plus 10c 850 airmass! Records would be smashed to pieces across much of Europe. Global warming is coming on fast

Yes, and we just know it will come off!  I think it's horrifying and really quite sad.  If those mild charts do come off, I think we are going to be hard pushed to see much in the way of sustained cold this winter.

Edited December 23, 2021 by Don

[MATTWOLVES 3]

15 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, but you can bet your bottom dollar it will be correct this time!  I had a feeling this update would flip.  Wonder if the Metoffice will backtrack on their cold first half to January now?

Honestly, the weather gods and models are being really cruel to us coldies at the moment! 

Don my good man its always a mistake to assume what pro forecasters are gonna do next...some of us on here see poor output for 10 days,and instantly think the met will be revising there update. People always seem to fear the worst possible outcome on this thread on such a regular basis...and its not just winter we have this problem,but summer too.

Not having a pop at you mate your a good lad,but remember to assume can very often make an ASS out of U and ME!!

Tell you what lads...plenty of Blocking into January and most definitely a reduction in those Southern Heights...I think we are still at the races...well of course we are...its the 23rd of December for crying out loud...

You lot get the festivities down your neck the next few days...guzzle the ale   stuff the turkey,tell the inlaws they're banned...and I want you all back at the office on the 1st of January 100% raring to go for a proper cold chase...I will accept nothing less...

Edited December 23, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[blizzard81]

EC46 does this every winter. Shows blocking in all the right places initially only then to implode to a positive nao set up. Seasonal forecasts now taking shape. I expect a big flip with the Exeter update tomorrow. 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Don my good man its always a mistake to assume what pro forecasters are gonna do next...some of us on here see poor output for 10 days,and instantly think the met will be revising there update. People always seem to fear the worst possible outcome on this thread on such a regular basis...and its not just winter we have this problem,but summer too.

Not having a pop at you mate your a good lad,but remember to assume can very often make an ASS out of U and ME!!

There's a good reason for the negativity my friend and I know I don't have to spell that reason out to you. The last 7 days debacle with the models is a very good clue but add to that countless let downs after let downs year after year. This week has been the most bitter pill to swallow out of all the let downs over the years and I know most on here will agree with that. Don has summed it up very well. 

[Don]

13 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Don my good man its always a mistake to assume what pro forecasters are gonna do next...some of us on here see poor output for 10 days,and instantly think the met will be revising there update. People always seem to fear the worst possible outcome on this thread on such a regular basis...and its not just winter we have this problem,but summer too.

Not having a pop at you mate your a good lad,but remember to assume can very often make an ASS out of U and ME!!

I know Matt, but it is concerning to see the short and longer range models flipping.  That's not to say they will be correct, but it's not good to see either.  Also, I really don't like the look of those exceptionally mild temperatures being forecast across Europe in late December and early January, just as we are going into the heart of winter.  Again, might not come off, but not good to see!  When you think we had 21C in February 2019, followed by record breaking temperatures in July 2019 and then some exceptionally hot temperatures late July/early August 2020, you can't ignore these charts.

As for the Metoffice changing their forecast, I'm not assuming they will, just wondering what their take will be after the recent changes in the model output?

PS As always, I do enjoy your posts Matt and you do lift the mood, when ones are feeling despondent!

Edited December 23, 2021 by Don

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

There's a good reason for the negativity my friend and I know I don't have to spell that reason out to you. The last 7 days debacle with the models is a very good clue but add to that countless let downs after let downs year after year. This week has been the most bitter pill to swallow out of all the let downs over the years and I know most on here will agree with that. Don has summed it up very well. 

Gonna have to disagree mate...firstly last winter delivered the goods to a few places...Scotland did very well...but I think some seem to think they don't exist. Plus your talking about a big letdown like it was the end of winter and nothing had delivered! When infact its barely got started.

We've already seen one blast of snow at the end of November...yet all we have witnessed is one fail regarding the Xmas period cold snap...hardly the end of the world is it my lad.

[Anwar Habu]

21 minutes ago, Don said:

No, yesterday's update is going for a colder than average January slightly more likely than normal.

I mean contingency issued in Autumn ? Was on another thread , Met said possible very mild Jan and Feb , this now showing for start of jan

[Don]

Just now, Anwar Habu said:

I mean contingency issued in Autumn ? Was on another thread , Met said possible very mild Jan and Feb , this now showing for start of jan

I'm referring to the updated contingency forecast yesterday for January to March.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-jfm-v1-secure.pdf

[johncam]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Gonna have to disagree mate...firstly last winter delivered the goods to a few places...Scotland did very well...but I think some seem to think they don't exist. Plus your talking about a big letdown like it was the end of winter and nothing had delivered! When infact its barely got started.

We've already seen one blast of snow at the end of November...yet all we have witnessed is one fail regarding the Xmas period cold snap...hardly the end of the world is it my lad.

Up here we had 9 snow events last year , nada this year ,this  Dec now looking snow free for me alas

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

Well EC 46 suggesting positive temp anomalies all of January,

Luckily it never gets anything right

Models tend to fair a lot better with mild/zonal/average conditions and can usually forecast a couple/few weeks ahead with confidence in such set ups. 

90% of the time you'll see mild count down to T0 without any hiccups. With that, let's look where we're at...

ECM D10 mean- Iberian heights

GFS- Iberian heights out as far as the eyes can see

I'm sorry, some won't want to hear this, but IMO January is looking odds on mild out to perhaps week 2 at least. There's nothing to suggest to me that we'll rid ourselves of that Iberian HP any time soon. All of this well signposted by the seasonals, which have been consistent with European HP.

Putting the output to one side, merry Christmas to all.

Edited December 23, 2021 by CreweCold