Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Merry Christmas everyone. It's a great forum, And remember it's the community that makes it what it is

It's a great forum - forum hosts
In all seriousness though, merry Christmas everyone and hopefully better model runs to show another proper chase again soon, I'm sure I'll say Merry Christmas a lot over the next few days and here's the first one, quick someone get the counter out and I'll break the record lol.
Plenty of runs till the end of Winter and I'm sure plenty of chases

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,as already mentioned by others Met office short and longer range stating relatively high 

uncertainty,maybe Glosea 5  has a different scenario from the generally mild showing from the charts.

Interesting if they continue with this format.

[Jason T]

Well I guess really after being away from here for along while due to work commitments and slowly getting back, still learning everyday. I would like to wish you all a very merry and safe Christmas to you and your families and although we are all human and get rattled at times weather permitting lol, life is truly short, enjoy yourselves and get a tipple !!!  

[Updated_Weather]

It’s a shame this first chase of winter didn’t deliver! But hope for more in the future! 
its been a pleasure learning from you all!

hope you all have a good Christmas and start of 2022! See you all in 2022!

[sebastiaan1973]

Some exciting members of GFS12h. Such as the control. 

[The Eagle]

Hopefully we don't end up in worst case scenario with the PV camped off Newfoundland

[jayb1989]

MOGREPS 1.5m temp chart. A few members have parts of the south east nudging the 14 degrees mark. Impressive for the time of year.

[Don]

5 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Hopefully we don't end up in worst case scenario with the PV camped off Newfoundland

Long way back to cold from that!

[MildCarlilse]

Some wintry cheer on BBC4 tonight@ 9:00pm.Winterwatch 1963:The Big Freeze.

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM has the -2 850s quite far south on xmas day

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120, needs no comment really:

My last one on here for a while, please have a really good Christmas everyone, and take care, there’s a bug going round apparently.  

And I wish you all a freezing cold new year

Mike

Edited December 23, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Allseasons-Si]

I hope to see more like this from the models as we go into the new year

Perb 11

i am going to take a break for a while over the Xmas hols but i will still be lurking and if i see a sniff of consistency from the models,..."ILL BE BACK

                                             

                                         so take care all and have a wonderful Christmas,...here's one for ya all

      

 

 

 

Edited December 23, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Sceptical]

Met 10 day trend disappointing.

[johncam]

1 minute ago, Sceptical said:

Met 10 day trend disappointing.

Strage updates then in their extended forecasts 

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T120, needs no comment really:

My last one on here for a while, please have a really good Christmas everyone, and take care, there’s a bug going round apparently.  

And I wish you all a freezing cold new year

Mike

Same to you Mike , really enjoy your positive posting style.

Let's hope we get a frigid January that will keep you, me and 99% of the community happy.

[Sceptical]

9 minutes ago, johncam said:

Strage updates then in their extended forecasts 

Somewhat contradictory.....

 

[Staffmoorlands]

All models agreeing on a very mild few days next week. ECM fairly typical of what the others show
 

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM really is a terrible run out to 192h,not a sign of anything cool,let alone cold!,does anyone have any feelings looking at the models when we may get a decent cold spell? also to note a lot of the winter forecasts were going colder then average...TWO the weather outlook ,net weather and gavs weather vids.were all predicting colder then average

Edited December 23, 2021 by Lukesluckybunch
spelling

[Hammer50]

Only good thing about the mild is turning the heating off and saving money.

[Eagle Eye]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ECM really is a terrible run out to 192h,not a sign of anything cool,let alone cold!,does anyway have any feelings looking at the models when we may get a decent cold spell? 

I suspect a possible SSW in January, the potential is slowly coming into the models but still speculation 

[Staffmoorlands]

21 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Met 10 day trend disappointing.

The only positive was that there is a chance of colder weather clinging on in the north.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Eagle Eye said:

I suspect a possible SSW in January, the potential is slowly coming into the models but still speculation 

oh really,this lastest ECM is very mobile no sign of any northern blocking

[Captain Shortwave]

North/south split developing as we move into new year. It doesn't look overly unsettled with mixed conditions in the north and the south will probably be mostly dry except for a couple of weak fronts. Looking very mild with that SW flow coming from a long way south and sufficient breeze to avoid an inversion that could keep the surface chilly.

      

As for Christmas day, the 0C has edged further south and west during today. So looking quite chilly away from the far south. However snow chances remain at the odd flake at best from the decaying front straddling central areas, north Midlands into south Yorkshire most favoured. 

 

[johncam]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

oh really,this lastest ECM is very mobile no sign of any northern blocking

Your right mate sad to say , could be a long wait till next chance of cold but hey its only weather , everyone have a great Xmas  and peaceful new year 

Cheers 

John 

[Allseasons-Si]

Well,...that was a quick Xmas break,...The JMA...

 

Edited December 23, 2021 by Allseasons-si