Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[swfc]

10 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:

Any short range models, showing anything for tomorrow/Wednesday/Thursday? Or will it be rain for the southern regions! Looks very cold in that wind 

Snow showers in Scotland Tom then unsettled wintry showers in the wnw

[MJB]

35 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I love how we have archives available to disprove many posts now.

It is indeed very difficult to tell the strength of 500mb going off those EC 46 anomalies, it was still showing a mean easterly over the Xmas period, the same as those NOAA charts, which apparently are not allowed to get it wrong.

Here is the EC 46 predicted 2m temp anomalies for a few weeks back which can't be interpreted incorrectly, and it visually easier to see they couldn't be more wrong 

Ec46 = chocolate tea pot

20th-27th and 27th to 3rd attached

That's an excellent point , certainly no confusion with that , unless the colours have been swapped of course 

Edited January 3, 2022 by MJB

[Battleground Snow]

JMA trying to move the bulk of the vortex to the eastern hemisphere too, but still has some of it left over Greenland

[Dunstable Snow]

54 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I love how we have archives available to disprove many posts now.

It is indeed very difficult to tell the strength of 500mb going off those EC 46 anomalies, it was still showing a mean easterly over the Xmas period, the same as those NOAA charts, which apparently are not allowed to get it wrong.

Here is the EC 46 predicted 2m temp anomalies for a few weeks back which can't be interpreted incorrectly, and it is visually easier to see they couldn't be more wrong 

Ec46 = chocolate tea pot

20th-27th and 27th to 3rd attached

Great post -

this together with Singularitys post above articulate exactly how I feel about these charts.

[offerman]

1 hour ago, jon snow said:

Although this is day 10, it’s showing mild so it’s probably guaranteed to happen!  

Spot on Jon. 

[offerman]

1 hour ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Indeed so DS. The EC 46 seems  to have  as much bias to overamplification as its shorter term relation.

I,ve lost count of the number of tweets and posts I,ve read from Pro forecasters and amatuers saying the ec46 shows northern blocking. The last farcical example being but a couple of weeks back when it showed Pretty much the whole of January with some kind of high latitude blocking in favourable locations for cold the UK.

BB,  Completely agree with that. 
i saw many myself too with that forecast and the rest of history to be binned. 
 

[offerman]

1 hour ago, Uncertainy said:

The thing is with these U.K. highs is a lot of the time they tend to flatten the closer you get to verification. It’s one of the most frustrating elements of current modelling.  Take the last 3 Ecm op runs for Wednesday 12th

Yesterday 12z

 

Today’s 0z

 

Latest

The mean has similarly downgraded.
 

One or two more ‘flattenings’ and it’s the dreaded long fetch south westerly. 
 

The GEFS has gone the other way. Which makes it (the flattening) even more likely

Im not saying this is going to happen it’s too far out but it isn’t easy to get a W.Scotland 1040mb high with a near record strat and such a strong trop jet. Something about the day 7+ modelling persistently over amplifies these mid latitude features and, for me, this has all the hallmarks of another such episode.

After this a definite trend to mid-Atlantic ridging and a weakish downstream trough

 

Should keep temps down but sadly it will make the strat vortex very happy indeed. Pretty much the opposite pattern to what’s needed to take it out and the wait for an SSW goes on…

 

The EC46 is depressing for cold hunters again and little sign of anything other than the long predicted stormy / very wet NW episode late Jan / Early Feb. 
 

Ot all the years to get another PV of doom, I really hoped it wouldn’t be this one. (though a few more members go close to AVERAGE earlier and later in the run than the last ridiculous run.) The mean basically straddles the upper climatological bound for most of the run. 
 

And what of next year? With its strong El Niño, WQBO, more sunspots? I’ll get my coat…

 

But…
 

I still feel that following this we will get our shot at cold as I just can’t see the vortex maintaining near record strength for the entire winter. 

Remember, the night is darkest just before the dawn. The SST trends are good (east based Nina, potential Atlantic tripole emerging). And hopefully we’ll get another orbit of the mjo before all is said and done. 
 

But, right now, it’s more of a ‘hope’, than a ‘hunt’.

 

Very well put. Why is it that more often than not these highs just flatten out in such a short space of time. 
 

when i look at initial northwesterly winds from Canada that stay that way but it’s like someone flicks a directional switch and they instantly go west or southwest. 
 

it’s like an invisible wall that’ss/w and  defects . 

[Ali1977]

Quite some difference at day 11 over in W Canada/Alaska with that WAA, not so much for us though although the PV doesn’t look quite so good for heights having a chance to move north. The WAA on the latest run may help down the line though

Edited January 3, 2022 by Ali1977

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Quite some difference at day 11 over in Canada with that WAA, not so much for us though although the PV doesn’t look quite so good for heights having a chance to move north. 

Might get close to a northernly around 324, just looking at trends at such range though

[Summer Snow]

19 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Might get close to a northernly around 324, just looking at trends at such range though

GFS showing high pressure meandering around UK and Ireland out to end of the run.....would be dubious about this.......in third week of December as high pressure built over us several GFS and ECM runs showed similar right out to 10-15 days ......(remember Met Office prediction of cold and frosty Xmas)... in reality, and at short enough notice, pressure built north after several days with Atlantic trying to undercut and we were very close to something very wintry (albeit some places did see some snow around Xmas time before the mild air won out).......  these patterns often have a habit of repeating during a winter season, and sometimes it takes a few bites of the cherry before getting proper cold to our shores....wouldn't be too downbeat just yet about our chances going forward  .... plenty of winter left and those 10-15 day charts will change for better or for worse either way to what they are currently predicting....... so form horse is for pressure nearby within 7 or 8 days, but where if goes thereafter amd subsequent conditions on the ground still very much up for grabs.   

[Tamara]

On 03/01/2022 at 20:55, Broadmayne blizzard said:

And within 7 days of publication was completely wrong with even that.

It wasn't wrong - if the usual eccentric deterministic and ensemble distractions that enrapture this thread (as reviewed in tandem with this product) are ironed out.

 The UK heights leading to diffused Icelandic/Greenland heights c/o decelerated -ve zonal wind anomalies within that region was fully advertised (correctly) by NWP in accordance with the diagnostic initial momentum transport from the tropics c/o the high frequency tropical wave advancing across west of the dateline and AAM tendency rising sharply accordingly

Subsequent to that, and as also documented accordingly in this thread amidst the hysteria - there has been a boost to the Hadley cell at the same time as organisation of the polar field profile has reversed polar rossby wave transport poleward (again explanations given) and made a subtle but acutely disparate impact to the Northern Annular mode to what was potentially anticipated from earlier in December and the run up to the festive period..

Just because wintry impacts were far less than whipped up on this thread for a small island within the context of a very large northern hemisphere, doesn't mean that the equivalent macro-scale pattern numerical modelling was wrong.

[BelgianBlizzard]

It looks like high pressure somewhere to the southwest of the UK is likely...will it lead to a northerly in the second half of the month? Maybe. Definitely no atlantic onslaught

Edited January 3, 2022 by BelgianBlizzard

[Hatewarmth]

6 hours ago, That ECM said:

He’s talking about the pv purple blob leaving the nw and going east. Therefore giving opportunities for heights to build nw and the jet stream being less strong. Here are the gefs mean from 06z and 12z you can see that more of the pv is east on this run. Worth looking at future runs to see if this becomes a trend.  

 

There are some brilliant areas within this site to aide learning. I would encourage looking as this hobby is far more enjoyable when you start to get handle on what the charts are showing.

Thanks.  This is really helpful

[Hatewarmth]

6 hours ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Polar Vortex has moved from Canada to Asia. PV over Canada is usually bad news for us in Europe. 

Thank you

[icykev]

4 hours ago, jon snow said:

Although this is day 10, it’s showing mild so it’s probably guaranteed to happen!  

 

4 hours ago, Don said:

Looks more warm than mild to me!

Hunt for cold please

This is hunting

Great post

3 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

I love how we have archives available to disprove many posts now.

It is indeed very difficult to tell the strength of 500mb going off those EC 46 anomalies, it was still showing a mean easterly over the Xmas period, the same as those NOAA charts, which apparently are not allowed to get it wrong.

Here is the EC 46 predicted 2m temp anomalies for a few weeks back which can't be interpreted incorrectly, and it is visually easier to see they couldn't be more wrong 

Ec46 = chocolate tea pot

20th-27th and 27th to 3rd attached

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

potential wedges appearing on 0z at 132!?

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Gfs 00z on its way out and is it me or does that high to the east look to be moving west. It seems closer compared to the pub run . One to watch.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

10 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

potential wedges appearing on 0z at 132!?

Its looking a very cold westerly too. Everything looks to be dropping south also.

[Kasim Awan]

Looks very mild in the extended range.

[Kasim Awan]

No wedge east of the uk will be able to withstand such a strong positive nao.

[fellmike]

Why do we never get a high like that in summer?

[fellmike]

Winter is broken!!!again

[That ECM]

These two charts kind of sum up where we are at the moment. T144 heights try to build ne. T168 power from the nw says no chance. 

[carinthian]

This picture tells a story. A common theme probably from all the models for a nightmare Mid Winter set up for Euroland.

C

[mountain shadow]

18 minutes ago, carinthian said:

This picture tells a story. A common theme probably from all the models for a nightmare Mid Winter set up for Euroland.

C

Yup.

But no surprises as this has been well indicated in the models. 

I think we can be say goodbye to any proper cold for January and we are almost certainly reliant on a SSW for late Winter/early Spring fun.