Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[Dunstable Snow]

Let’s see in 4 weeks time shall we - personally I think it’s a complete an utter waste of time. If it was showing griceland blocking and Low pressure across the med I wouldn’t give it 5 seconds attention. 

[E17boy]

32 minutes ago, offerman said:

Great posts a few posts ago.

it’s so true that we have such strong high pressures coming up from the south west south or euro slug.

and then in summer we get the high-pressure further to the north and Northwest.

I also agree with the other post that side where was this pattern in the summer.

The high pressures we encounter now are so stubborn which normally sit off the coast of Spain or Euroland in southern parts.

these highs seem more stubborn now than ever before even when faced with an easterly or north north-east Easterly blast. Years ago Highs would migrate or dissipate open all the way to allow northerly blasts or Eastleigh blast but nowadays these high pressures scene so intense and once they’re there they seem to stay put that’s decreasing the chances of any cold from the north or the east.

even recently when there was so many indicators and people talking of really cold weather over Christmas which did look like it would happen on the charts and I remember saying to people it’s too far out just wait until three days away at least and even in that timeframe things can change. don’t be too excited about the cold could be that it won’t happen.

and low and behold what happened there was a flip just a couple of days out completely reversed leading to the mildest new year on record.

now this isn’t to say told you so or anything as I haven’t got a Scoobys what the weather is going to do but my point is neither do the forecasters or the charts for that matter.

as another post I said earlier when the flow is from West to east most of the members align and then that is what happens ,you don’t get any major changes to cold weather just two days out or any major flips.

it doesn’t seem to matter what’s happening on the other side of the world now with weather patterns which would affect us greatly it seems more of a local well relatively local topology that affects us even more with these stubborn high pressures and their positions. You don’t see a high pressure in the south migrate Northwoods linking right up to Greenland like we would in the olden days. Best all we seem to get is a ridge and that is just not good enough or powerful enough to stop the Atlantic.

even the Scandi highs don’t seem that strong anymore or strong enough to battle against Atlantic low pressures all migrating highs off the coast of Iberia which drift up to us here in the UK. 

 

 

The Azores high has been a spoiler of many winters and I dare to say if this high transfers to se Europe we are in the dumps really are as this kind of pattern can be stubborn sadly 

[northwestsnow]

Yes I didn't want  to post ec 46 myself , it's not good at all.

Hard to stay optimistic right now although things can change at short notice of course.

Low heights remain stubbornly rooted to Greenland,we may see temporary PM attacks, but for those like myself wanting an Easterly I'm afraid it looks pretty grim.

 

Edited January 3, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Wingman Blue]

Whilst it’s more likely, warm interludes twenty days out are no more reliable than cold ten days away.

If I’ve learnt anything about this winter it’s that beyond 48 hours anything might happen.

For once I’d like to see a model at distance that verifies. The only thing currently certain is uncertainty.

 

[Mapantz]

Here's brief look at Thursday on the 15Z UKV

 

The front moves through quite quickly, but a huge rash of wintry showers packing in to western areas as we head in to Friday.

[Dunstable Snow]

5 minutes ago, E17boy said:

The Azores high has been a spoiler of many winters and I dare to say if this high transfers to se Europe we are in the dumps really are as this kind of pattern can be stubborn sadly 

It’s where it is because of the position of the TPV which I fully understand you will appreciate. A high is SE Europe is more indicative of a west based - NAO I would have thought - with low pressure developing in and to the SW of Europe out into the Azores. Can be good for us but more often than not pretty rubbish.

[Don]

32 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Really game over now - EC46 just gets worse and worse from T168 right the way to this, with the +ve Bartlett anomalies strengthening into feb.

Only if it's correct.

[Staffmoorlands]

14 minutes ago, Wingman Blue said:

Whilst it’s more likely, warm interludes twenty days out are no more reliable than cold ten days away.

If I’ve learnt anything about this winter it’s that beyond 48 hours anything might happen.

For once I’d like to see a model at distance that verifies. The only thing currently certain is uncertainty.

 

Once the models got a grip with this mild spell they were spot on. The record temperature last week were predicted 7 days out by the models 

[Frosty.]

Although this is day 10, it’s showing mild so it’s probably guaranteed to happen!  

Edited January 3, 2022 by jon snow

[Don]

1 minute ago, jon snow said:

Although this is day 10, it’s showing mild so it’s probably guaranteed to happen!  

Looks more warm than mild to me!

[Dunstable Snow]

4 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Once the models got a grip with this mild spell they were spot on. The record temperature last week were predicted 7 days out by the models 

I can’t disagree with that I’m afraid. I think there is the potential for more of that unfortunately but also potentially extreme cold as the winter goes on.

[Chesil View]

21 minutes ago, Dunstable Snow said:

Let’s see in 4 weeks time shall we - personally I think it’s a complete an utter waste of time. If it was showing griceland blocking and Low pressure across the med I wouldn’t give it 5 seconds attention. 

Indeed so DS. The EC 46 seems  to have  as much bias to overamplification as its shorter term relation.

I,ve lost count of the number of tweets and posts I,ve read from Pro forecasters and amatuers saying the ec46 shows northern blocking. The last farcical example being but a couple of weeks back when it showed Pretty much the whole of January with some kind of high latitude blocking in favourable locations for cold the UK.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Indeed so DS. The EC 46 seems  to have  as much bias to overamplification as its shorter term relation.

I,ve lost count of the number of tweets and posts I,ve read from Pro forecasters and amatuers saying the ec46 shows northern blocking. The last farcical example being but a couple of weeks back when it showed Pretty much the whole of January with some kind of high latitude blocking in favourable locations for cold the UK.

It showed a weak +ve anomaly averaged out over a 7 day period rather than blocking IMO.

[Chesil View]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It showed a weak +ve anomaly averaged out over a 7 day period rather than blocking IMO.

And within 7 days of publication was completely wrong with even that.

[Dunstable Snow]

Feb - your a pretty good interpreter of charts IMO  and we all know how challenging it is calling the uk weather 7/10 days ahead. I might consider EC46 up to week two but unlikely and I certainly wouldn’t beyond that. There are far too many people writing off this winter already.

I live 30 miles NW of London- I’ve had 2 snowfalls already this winter and expect another tomorrow and potentially Thursday/Friday - I appreciate I am 600ft up but even so. To read in here would suggest something very different- I have already posted my thoughts on might potentially happen going forward.

[knocker]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It showed a weak +ve anomaly averaged out over a 7 day period rather than blocking IMO.

That is a good point imo. I get the distinct impression on accasion that some people confuse the anomalies as physical entities on a 500mb contour chart

Edited January 3, 2022 by knocker

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Depends if you want something now or    not.  We are not seeing and elongated HP with 16000 mile long SW’ly winds….next 2 weeks are imo generally now in the bag overall synoptics wise..weather could be frosty or dull…but that’s fine, that’s weather.  

BFTP

 

 

BFTP

Never expecting anything now...but going by the ridiculous +NAO anomalies we've had for over the last decade it currently ain't looking good for this Winter. January has been terrible in my neck of the woods and no doubt others over the last decade only 2013 could be described as a worthy wintry January. 

If we're not going to get anything remotely January 'worthyness' then dry and mild with some sun will do me!

[Uncertainty]

The thing is with these U.K. highs is a lot of the time they tend to flatten the closer you get to verification. It’s one of the most frustrating elements of current modelling.  Take the last 3 Ecm op runs for Wednesday 12th

Yesterday 12z

 

Today’s 0z

 

Latest

The mean has similarly downgraded.
 

One or two more ‘flattenings’ and it’s the dreaded long fetch south westerly. 
 

The GEFS has gone the other way. Which makes it (the flattening) even more likely

Im not saying this is going to happen it’s too far out but it isn’t easy to get a W.Scotland 1040mb high with a near record strat and such a strong trop jet. Something about the day 7+ modelling persistently over amplifies these mid latitude features and, for me, this has all the hallmarks of another such episode.

After this a definite trend to mid-Atlantic ridging and a weakish downstream trough

 

Should keep temps down but sadly it will make the strat vortex very happy indeed. Pretty much the opposite pattern to what’s needed to take it out and the wait for an SSW goes on…

 

The EC46 is depressing for cold hunters again and little sign of anything other than the long predicted stormy / very wet NW episode late Jan / Early Feb. 
 

Ot all the years to get another PV of doom, I really hoped it wouldn’t be this one. (though a few more members go close to AVERAGE earlier and later in the run than the last ridiculous run.) The mean basically straddles the upper climatological bound for most of the run. 
 

And what of next year? With its strong El Niño, WQBO, more sunspots? I’ll get my coat…

 

But…
 

I still feel that following this we will get our shot at cold as I just can’t see the vortex maintaining near record strength for the entire winter. 

Remember, the night is darkest just before the dawn. The SST trends are good (east based Nina, potential Atlantic tripole emerging). And hopefully we’ll get another orbit of the mjo before all is said and done. 
 

But, right now, it’s more of a ‘hope’, than a ‘hunt’.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Dunstable Snow said:

Feb - your a pretty good interpreter of charts IMO  and we all know how challenging it is calling the uk weather 7/10 days ahead. I might consider EC46 up to week two but unlikely and I certainly wouldn’t beyond that. There are far too many people writing off this winter already.

I live 30 miles NW of London- I’ve had 2 snowfalls already this winter and expect another tomorrow and potentially Thursday/Friday - I appreciate I am 600ft up but even so. To read in here would suggest something very different- I have already posted my thoughts on might potentially happen going forward.

Ok - shouldn't have said that but deffo writing Jan off for high latt blocking, NOT for PM and runners into transitory brief Euro troughs, still think a second week SSW Feb is a possibility but we need to start to see signs of it soon (next 2 weeks).

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

That is a good point imo. I get the distinct impression on accasion that some people confuse the anomalies as physical entities on a 500mb contour chart

Yes, although what i would say is even when a Blocking episode verifies over Greenland (rarely in winter), its unlikely to be signposted as anything other than a weak anomaly at T+4 weeks on a 51 member ensemble means product. So am kind of in both camps on this but in the main agree with you.

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

That is a good point imo. I get the distinct impression on accasion that some people confuse the anomalies as physical entities on a 500mb contour chart

See it all the time. Pressure anomaly charts are so misleading. Well, that, or misread and misused. Pale reds over Iceland does not mean northern blocking. Temp anomaly charts are much less prone to be being misread, of course

[Singularity]

The EC46 is often grossly misrepresented in here. It’s an ensemble mean, so it suggests what could be more likely than usual, as opposed to predicting a particular pattern.

It predicted raised odds of HLB well into Jan, but then that signal faded and the climate ‘norm’ dominated the week 3-5 predictions instead.

Now we see a change from that for week 2 with signs of high pressure more to the west of the UK.

Likely an extension of the current 8-10 day direction of travel... as it so often is. There I will say the model has a fault - it’s too fond of persisting what’s developing in the 8-10 day range through weeks 2-3, even 4 sometimes. Most striking when the 8-10’l day change is strong, like it was pre-Xmas.

[Chesil View]

All we have across the models at the moment is essentially a rolling high scenario. The gfs tends it slightly further west but its essentially the same. A bulge north then a topple or retreat. Hence the extreme briefness  of any Northerly input.

I tend to a agree with Feb1991blizzard here in that even at this early stage you can probably write off January for any sustained. Easterly or northeasterly sourced deep cold.

Really Very much hope I,m wrong but without a major pattern change we won't be looking east or northeast for our weather anytime soon.

[Battleground Snow]

46 minutes ago, knocker said:

That is a good point imo. I get the distinct impression on accasion that some people confuse the anomalies as physical entities on a 500mb contour chart

I love how we have archives available to disprove many posts now.

It is indeed very difficult to tell the strength of 500mb going off those EC 46 anomalies, it was still showing a mean easterly over the Xmas period, the same as those NOAA charts, which apparently are not allowed to get it wrong.

Here is the EC 46 predicted 2m temp anomalies for a few weeks back which can't be interpreted incorrectly, and it is visually easier to see they couldn't be more wrong 

Ec46 = chocolate tea pot

20th-27th and 27th to 3rd attached

Edited January 3, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[iowpompeylee]

Any short range models, showing anything for tomorrow/Wednesday/Thursday? Or will it be rain for the southern regions! Looks very cold in that wind