Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[goosey007]

until the ecm shows its hand with regards snow id take this with a massive pinch of salt.....the GFS is just leading us up the garden path in my opinion....12z will likely backtrack. But we shall see......as always always an element of doubt.

[Bald Eagle]

This is good old Bristol...Tuesday. Not so much the snaw but also potentially damaging winds. Will it happen? Is the GFS right? Of course it is

[sheikhy]

Good to be kinda back for now lol!!!!had a nice 10 day break from this mild muck!!!my opinion but gfs is wrong very wrong and we gona see it backdown later on!!!i want it to be correct but it aint lol!!!hope it proves me wrong!!!anyway another 2 days of this mild boredom and things actually look pretty seasonal thereafter my peeps!!!oh latest cannon fodder icon is as far away from gfs as can be at 72 hours!!!it agrees with the mighty ecm instead!!

[Kasim Awan]

Arpege & Icon in with no low on 4th.

[fergieweather]

1 hour ago, MJB said:

They are indeed BBC goes off the ECM - XC as we know is a GFS follower 

No, it isn't a replication of ECMWF deterministic (a common misconception). The BBC wx app - as with MeteoGroup/DTN's WeatherPro - is fed by DTN's proprietary MOS data, using statistical blend *including* ECMWF output. It can also be tweaked as needed throughout the day by DTN forecasters, who can 'group select' locations in a given area to update their respective site-specific solutions shown in the app (eg based on radar, obs etc).

[swfc]

Looking today at the models unless your a "soothsayer or time traveller" there's nothing out of the ordinary on the nhp. West to east movement pretty much standard for our area with the chance of a sse flow in fi. Not sure what's going on with this will it won't snow, looks like cooling down and that's it imo

Edited January 1, 2022 by swfc

[MJB]

4 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

No, it isn't a replication of ECMWF deterministic (a common misconception). The BBC wx app - as with MeteoGroup/DTN's WeatherPro - is fed by DTN's proprietary MOS data, using statistical blend *including* ECMWF output. It can also be tweaked as needed throughout the day by DTN forecasters, who can 'group select' locations in a given area to update their respective site-specific solutions shown in the app (eg based on radar, obs etc).

Ahhhh ok , Thank you Ian 

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Arpege & Icon in with no low on 4th.

The arpege is very close to the GFS if you ask me, let’s see what happens in 30 mins. I’ll be surprised if the GFS still has snow, if it does you’d think the UKMO will follow that!! 

[chris55]

I’ve seen GFS get these shorter term outliers correct in the past. Not often but can definitely happened. 
 

The consistency between the 00 and 06 is important. 

Let’s see what the 12z brings  

[Lukesluckybunch]

8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Arpege & Icon in with no low on 4th.

the aperge 12z is just coming out now..

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

the aperge 12z is just coming out now..

Already out. Fairly non descript

[Captain Shortwave]

The ICON keeps the feature very shallow and it runs into France without developing. The only sign is the associated frontal system that stays across Northern France. Essentially a non event.

Arpege

Too far south and the rain only grazes the south coast before pulling away. On the other hand it does engage the Arctic airmass, it just isn’t enough north to benefit us as the rain turns to snow over France.

Hard to tell where the rest of the suite will go.

Edited January 1, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[MJB]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The ICON keeps the feature very shallow and it runs into France without developing. The only sign is the associated frontal system that stays across Northern France. Essentially a non event.

Arpege

Too far south and the rain only grazes the south coast before pulling away. On the other hand it does engage the Arctic airmass, it just isn’t enough north to benefit us as the rain turns to snow over France.

Hard to tell where the rest of the suite will go.

As per the latest Beeb forecast 

[fergieweather]

10 minutes ago, MJB said:

Ahhhh ok , Thank you Ian 

No worries! I assume the misconception is simply because the primary deterministic global model we use on TV graphics is ECMWF (although we can, & some of us periodically do, also show GFS & UKMO-GM for comparative purposes such as the lead-up saga we endured into Christmas Day). The principal mesoscale/regional model we used was, until a fortnight ago, Euro4 (with its raw output edited as needed by DTN forecast team). However with that model now retiring, we've switched to UKVx as the default. None of this feeds into the app, however - both it, plus TV site max/mins & 7-day outlooks are MOS driven, as prior explained. Cheers

Edited January 1, 2022 by fergieweather
Typo

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Already out. Fairly non descript

yes nothing showing on the aperge,i really hope the snow is still there on gfs

[Kasim Awan]

14 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

the aperge 12z is just coming out now..

Arpege 12z was out @ 15.10 on Meteociel France view.

[Lukesluckybunch]

12z looking fairly similiar,next frame will tell if the lows merge together

[sheikhy]

Gfs less deep at 54 hours!!that typical gfs downgrade bit by bit!!!

[Ali1977]

Ouch, I guess this was expected though!! 

[winterof79]

12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Arpege 12z was out @ 15.10 on Meteociel France view.

Snow moving south

Edited January 1, 2022 by winterof79

[weirpig]

GFS backtrack. As you were 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Snow moving south

Yeah this needs a watch

[Ali1977]

Now, is this where the ECM jumps on board !!  The GFS was only 100 miles off so it could still happen I guess!! 

Edited January 1, 2022 by Ali1977

[Kasim Awan]

Looking like game over the snow event - or more or less so - as GFS 12z removes it.

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

GFS backtrack. As you were 

Bingo!!just like that!!!!