Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[swfc]

30 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Looking like game over the snow event - or more or less so - as GFS 12z removes it.

 

[mushymanrob]

25 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Looking like game over the snow event - or more or less so - as GFS 12z removes it.

LOL... theres some over reactions here... we are told not to compare a run with the previous but with the previous (in this case 12z) run.

The feature is still there, the threat/promise is still there, ok, some GFS runs did look dodgy and are unlikely to verify, but deciding on the detail for a marginal event 3 days away on the back of a percieved downgrade may well prove premature.

The threat is still there, some are likely to be lucky.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, weathercold said:

There is some serious hopecasting on this forum at the moment. I appreciate many want snow but at times some posts are consistently unbalanced. I’m seeing nothing bar wintry showers on high ground up north and winds from a w/nw direction…cool not cold for early Jan. 

I agree it’s likely to disappear, it’s generally how it goes. But to have this as an ENS mean at only T72 isn’t bad. And it’s not like it’s skirting the south coast. MOGREPS and EC ENS had many similar !!

I am more convinced it will not happen through lack of tweets from any proper met people - or maybe they are just holding on for now just in case

 

[Captain Shortwave]

The snow event on Tuesday was always unlikely given how rare events like that are. Still it was on both the GFS and GEM, so it is worthy of discussion.

Moving onwards.. UKMO favouring a rather chilly pathway through the latter parts of this coming week.

 

low heights so the likelihood of bands of showers moving from west to east under an airmass that might allow snow, even to low levels at times. We also have that gap that could allow some modest ridging to our west to veer the winds towards the north.

By the way the GEM is ridiculous, more for the severity of the winds towards to south west.

Edited January 1, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Kasim Awan]

13 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

LOL... theres some over reactions here... we are told not to compare a run with the previous but with the previous (in this case 12z) run.

The feature is still there, the threat/promise is still there, ok, some GFS runs did look dodgy and are unlikely to verify, but deciding on the detail for a marginal event 3 days away on the back of a percieved downgrade may well prove premature.

The threat is still there, some are likely to be lucky.

I agree the threat of snowfall has not gone away.However, the risk of the earlier disruptive snow type events shown on the gfs is diminishing given higher res output (arpege/icon), are trending away from the idea. These models have a better grip on short term cyclogenesis of which this system was dependent on, compared with the gem and the GEFS suite.

Edited January 1, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[MJB]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

I agree it’s likely to disappear, it’s generally how it goes. But to have this as an ENS mean at only T72 isn’t bad. And it’s not like it’s skirting the south coast. MOGREPS and EC ENS had many similar !!

I am more convinced it will not happen through lack of tweets from any proper met people - or maybe they are just holding on for now just in case

 

Actually is mate if it doesn't happen seeing as we are talking 72 hours 

[weirpig]

Oh gem.   

 

 

[Ali1977]

Oh, and hello GEM which pushed it further north 

 

Edited January 1, 2022 by Ali1977

[Chesil View]

And there it is gone.......the 06z southern snow event that is.......... wow what a surprise.

Can't even maintain continuity at 72 hrs.

Edited January 1, 2022 by Broadmayne blizzard

[weathercold]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I agree it’s likely to disappear, it’s generally how it goes. But to have this as an ENS mean at only T72 isn’t bad. And it’s not like it’s skirting the south coast. MOGREPS and EC ENS had many similar !!

I am more convinced it will not happen through lack of tweets from any proper met people - or maybe they are just holding on for now just in case

 

Nothing would please me more Ali…let’s hope!

[danthetan]

This is what the UKMO-GM model was showing on the 00z 

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Oh, and hello GEM which pushed it further north 

 

Here we go again, Chuckle gate

[mushymanrob]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I agree the threat of snowfall has not gone away.However, the risk of the earlier disruptive snow type events shown on the gfs is diminishing given higher res output (arpege/icon), are trending away from the idea. These models have a better grip on short term cyclognesis of which this system was dependent on, compared with the gem and the GEFS suite.

from my own pov, i didnt believe the blizzard scenario anyway and posted as much this morning (own site) .but it was something to watch, and imho still is. i think we are in agreement here..

[MJB]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Oh, and hello GEM which pushed it further north 

 

So both N American models giving  snow hmmmmmmmmm

[swfc]

Looking at the 12z gfs at 10 days "sorry not mentioning the will it won't event" the PV to the nnw looks pretty ominous to meIncreased Heighths to the sw also look none to good. Sorry if off topic

[Kasim Awan]

Wrf same as Arpege (non event).

UKV rolling out now.

[Battleground Snow]

Gem may get interesting in a few frames if it can maintain heights around Iceland

 

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Wrf same as Arpege (non event).

UKV rolling out now.

UKV also a dud!!

[weirpig]

And the jma  makes more of the low 

Edited January 1, 2022 by weirpig

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem may get interesting in a few frames if it can maintain heights around Iceland

 

If T72 is so far wrong this won’t happen, showed similar this morning.

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

UKV also a dud!!

- Think we can fairly safely say now that the earlier gfs idea is an outlier as opposed to a feasible solution.

[Ali1977]

JMA firmly in the GEM/GEFS camp. Don’t worry, I agree it’s unlikely but I’m just showing the models!! 

[Kasim Awan]

Nice UKMO @ 168. Shame the UKMO / GEM have demonstrated an underestimation of Atlantic output recently.

[Hatewarmth]

39 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Mate.. it’s over.

this “event” was never likely in any situation tbh. GFS being typical and being it’s usual self.. 

people need to learn and not take every run like the 6z as gospel. It’ll only lead to disappointment.

follow UKMO and ECM imo.. 

can’t see any snow event or anything noteworthy through the rest of jan.

Can you please explain why or show any evidence of why we won’t see anything noteworthy for the whole of January.  January has still got another 30 days to go and from what I’m seeing from the models they don’t seem to have a clue past 96 hrs atm.

 

you may well end up being correct but posting statements like this is really not helpful and just guess work as things can change very quickly especially in winter.  In my opinion people who make very bold statements like this are just so scared of getting hurt (by not getting any snow) they set themselves up fir the worse case senariio that way it won’t hurt as much if their negative opinions comes to fruitition.

from what I’m seeing in most of the models is a trend to cooler conditions and colder interludes at times.  Also remember the MJO is still very much in our favour and things could chance to a much colder outlook at a moment’s notice.

 

my advice fir what it’s worth is stay positive and watch this space as I think there will be a few supposes this month ️️️️️️️️️️️️️

 

 

 

[swfc]

Just out interest take a look at the ukmo and gem at 144 hrs comical

Edited January 1, 2022 by swfc