Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If it has then you can be sure it will rebound if this amplification gets to day 7/8 …..

We like to get it to day 5 before we lose that signal 

[supernova]

55 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

there are a few who seem to find it hard to cope with acronyms and shortened names which saves time when posting 

So in summary a strong NE USA trough thwarts any short-term MAR on ECM whereas GFS sets up a pronto Scandi HP then splits the TPV with new NH profile allowing a robust GH despite -ve E'ly AAM anoms toward higher lats forcing weakly positive NAO/AO and a meandering MJO with +ve PNA during tepid winter La Nina and no SSW. All ends A-OK tho' with sub zero T850s and a blizzard in the south? LMAO.

Edited January 6, 2022 by supernova

[Chesil View]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

That’ll do

Just need the red area near the south coast 60 miles west and it would be perfect. Lol .

[Froze were the Days]

Worrying that the GFS is fairly consistent with a colder signal post day 10 (with Greenland heights becoming the dominant feature)...latest 06z run looks very different around D9-10 to other runs and loses the HP signal close to the UK but still gets there to a degree in the end (somehow). Latest ECM still shows a lot of energy running around the high at D9-10.

My guess and it is a guess that the signal for colder conditions in a day or two's time will be dropped! it's all eye candy presently and that's all it is...

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Worrying that the GFS is fairly consistent with a colder signal post day 10 (with Greenland heights becoming the dominant feature)...latest 06z run looks very different around D9-10 to other runs and loses the HP signal close to the UK but still gets there to a degree in the end (somehow). Latest ECM still shows a lot of energy running around the high at D9-10.

My guess and it is a guess that the signal for colder conditions in a day or two's time will be dropped! it's all eye candy presently and that's all it is...

yes it wouldnt surprise me at all,the 6z ensembles also are not as good

[Purga]

An interesting cold LP skirting the south end of next week per GFS 06z running from East to West on an Easterly, Would give some snow / wintry preciptation for the South Coast and especially the Moors of the SW.

 

That's not to mention FI of course

Edited January 6, 2022 by Purga

[ITSY]

31 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

That’ll do

That would be a historic event for the SE quadrant, the way the low intensifies and stalls on its exit northward from the channel. I doubt we'll ever see such a scenario - not just in this winter but in a generation - but it's quite amazing to look at what's possible. The snow is actually intensifying here in the final frame so you can add another 5-10cms minimum for the whole area before the event subsides. 15-25cms widely to low levels from that, Chilterns 30cms+.

Nice to look at! 

Back to reality, the GEFS are really not that great in the medium-long term. We need to see the PV continue to shift to our side of the Pole and then watch for openings for a favourably positioned MLB. 

[sukayuonsensnow]

GFS 6 on the sherry this morning.

Reminds me of a model run from a couple years ago. My hometown would be snowed in.

Can't see it happening myself. But one can dream.......

[sukayuonsensnow]

55 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Ends with deep snow from a snowstorm for the south for good measure *crosses fingers*

Would be our heaviest snow since 5/6 January 2010 for sure.

But its in FI........

[Cold Winter Night]

What I find remarkable this morning is the difference between ECM/EPS and GFS/GEFS at a short lead time.

Both the Ops and the ensembles have different ideas about developing Scandinavian heights starting as early as 72h.
EC/EPS doesn't develop heights over the Norwegian Sea, GFS/GEFS does. Only one small cluster in EPS agrees with it (and brings cold on the De Bilt plume).

By 144h (138h for the GEFS 6z) the difference is clear on the ensemble mean charts:

The GFS almost produces a classic Scandi High at 168h and it brings cold West, even -8 T850's through France to Ireland at 192h!

Now I would put more trust in the EC High Resolution+EPS over GFS+GEFS at these lead times, but the consistency and bullishness of the latter in creating a stronger Scandi feature is remarkable in my opinion.

Going further into the EPS output, the regimes chart shows it firmly in the central circle, but changing the direction of movement more towards negative blocking.

That is associated with the beginning move of lower heights towards Scandinavia. A Scandinavian trough is what defines a proper BLO- regime, so if that's where we're heading, it should show up in this chart as a move of the ensemble to the bottom part of it.

The 192h-240h clusters clearly support the move of the troposheric Polar Vortex (tPV) to Russia/Eastern Scandinavia.
The differences are in the follwing Atlantic ridging. We'll just have to wait and see what happens with that.

Later on, ridging to the Northwest is still very much a feature, but the De Bilt plume shows that we (in Holland at least) don't profit from it (yet). For now, the outlook out to day 15 is pretty dull, but hemispheric changes make following the output interesting.

 

[Nick2373]

This is a quote from a very respected forecaster on another site. There’s something brewing without a doubt!

Thier words below not mine.

 

I'll stick my neck out and say I'm more confident that something is brewing. It fits in perfectly with the analogues / WAI.

 

Edited January 6, 2022 by Nick2373

[geordiekev]

GFS 6z makes much less of the cut off low coming out of seaboard so high not strong enough as previous 3 runs. 

The snow charts for the resultant outcome are obscene though . Good that there are a few options leading to cold outcomes though

[Cold Winter Night]

4 hours ago, jules216 said:

The cluster chart 2 days ago that had at 264h main lobe of lover heigts thrending Down to ať least south of Scandi/Baltic has them now at 240h in Western Russia or far east Scandi. Clear thrend of de-amplifying pattern mid range unfortunatelly. And this is evident on All clusters. 

Not meaning to have a go at you, but here is this 264h cluster chart from two days ago, and it doesn't have the main lobe of lower heights South of Scandinavia/Baltic at all.

If anything it is further South and more amplified in Eastern Europe at 240h.

Attributing meaning to run-to-run ensemble trends and extrapolating them is advised against by ECMWF, but all the more if that trend isn't even there.

Edited January 6, 2022 by Cold Winter Night

[legritter]

Hi gang ,Iff the gfs is sniffing out some  sort of cold and snowy spell i would want to see the Ecm follow fairly soon ,and of course met office longer range to change .To be quite honest i think in 10days time we could see a pattern change ,but and a big but will the goods come our way ,upcoming evening charts will find me behind the sofa with sausage bap ,take care all and keep up with the hunt ,. 

[sorepaw1]

I'm not disappointed by the 06z GFS.

Looks like plenty of opportunity for cold getting to us from the east initially..

Heavy snow currently in my location 

And getting heavier. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

I'm not disappointed by the 06z GFS.

Looks like plenty of opportunity for cold getting to us from the east initially..

Heavy snow currently in my location 

And getting heavier. 

yes we was close to a properly easterly on the 6z at 168..lets hope we can build on this ,on the 12z

[bluearmy]

The 06z suite doesn’t take us any closer to a cold spell 

at the range we are looking at, this isn’t a surprise

the much maligned ec46 will later show if that model is sniffing anything week 3. I don’t expect much looking at the day 15 mean but I will be more interested in the clusters for that week to see how many members are on the MAR/sceuro trough page 

[Mariescb]

1 hour ago, Nick2373 said:

This is a quote from a very respected forecaster on another site. There’s something brewing without a doubt!

Thier words below not mine.

 

I'll stick my neck out and say I'm more confident that something is brewing. It fits in perfectly with the analogues / WAI.

 

Very interesting and completely at odds with some recent posts by very respected people on here. The plot thickens.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Nick2373 said:

This is a quote from a very respected forecaster on another site. There’s something brewing without a doubt!

If that’s Brian, he’s probably speaking about his home made beer ! 

[Stu_London]

Don't be surprised if the GFS completely drops a cold FI in the next few runs, only to reintroduce the idea at a shorter timeframe possible day 8/9.

Seen it many time before. 

And even this does happen, there will be no guarantee that anything notable will come to pass. At that range the number of variables that may or may not scupper such a spell remains an astronomical number.

The only thing that is fairly certain is that model watching over the next week or so will be more interesting (and stressful, for those that never learn) than it has been over the last week or so.

[Nick2373]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If that’s Brian, he’s probably speaking about his home made beer ! 

Spot on Blue, he’s very cautious  and doesn’t really call on things. 

[Anthony Burden]

27 minutes ago, Mariescb said:

Very interesting and completely at odds with some recent posts by very respected people on here. The plot thickens.

Hi yes a very respected person on weather outlook,would take that comment very seriously.

[Staffmoorlands]

12 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

Spot on Blue, he’s very cautious  and doesn’t really call on things. 

Is he a trained forecaster? 

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Hi yes a very respected person on weather outlook,would take that comment very seriously.

He's made bad calls in the past.

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

He's made bad calls in the past.

I think everyone has and does Feb, me everyday