Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[Anthony Burden]

8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

It's funny how seemingly the EC never fails to disappoint when the GFS is repeatedly showing a better path for coldies. If only for once they'd agree out to day 10 other when they are both showing raging zonality! 

Hi Nick, Judah Cohen climatologist Twitter blog worth a read.

[fromey]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Thing is thought what is causing the gfs to pick the more amplified scenario across scandi?!!is there something in the background that the gfs is picking up but the ecm is not?!!

It’s seeing something but what it is is anyone guess! 

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Thing is thought what is causing the gfs to pick the more amplified scenario across scandi?!!is there something in the background that the gfs is picking up but the ecm is not?!!

Let’s hope so mate . But I have noticed the ECM seems flatter in FI the last few winters . It happened in December with the last failed cold spell , gfs picks it up runs with it for days , ECM jumps on it after a few days . In the end it didn’t come off as we all no . Pretty sure last Jan as well the gfs was 1st to pick up the cold spell and finally the ECM jumped on then the gfs jump off. In the end we got a half decent cold spell . Time will tell . 

[SqueakheartLW]

Can't believe how different the 3 main models are just in the next week. Here's 12z GFS, 12z ECM and 12z GEM

+24h Friday 7th

GFS                                                            ECM                                                         GEM

Seems we have agreement here for tomorrow at least for cold westerly winds with a threat of wintry showers.

+48h Saturday 8th

GFS                                                            ECM                                                         GEM

Again almost broad agreement here for a wet and windy Saturday and something a bit milder too.

+72h Sunday 9th

GFS                                                            ECM                                                         GEM

Slight differences here in how quickly low pressure clears away to our east but otherwise agreement on Sunday having better weather at least in terms of it been drier at least and a little less mild than Saturday.

+96h Monday 10th

GFS                                                            ECM                                                         GEM

This is where the main divergence starts to show itself between the 3 main models. GFS has more of a Scandi high developing compared with the ECM and GEM and as a consequence the GFS is less mild than ECM and GEM which are more keen to push in the next lot of milder air on Monday.

+120h Tuesday 11th

GFS                                                            ECM                                                         GEM

Even more differences here between the 3 main models. GFS is the coldest solution as it was less keen to bring in the milder air to start with and with high pressure more over the UK then we see cold and frosty weather taking over. ECM is the mildest solution with the Atlantic flow over the area of high pressure which is more to our south. GEM seems to be a middle of the road solution and the one you would probably bet on as it is between the other two.

+144h Wednesday 12th

GFS                                                            ECM                                                         GEM

The differences remain here between the 3 models and like with Tuesday the GFS is the coldest option and the ECM the mildest with GEM somewhere between the other 2 but GEM bringing a bit more of a milder influence into more northern parts with a slight southwards shift of the high.

+168 Thursday 13th

GFS                                                            ECM                                                         GEM

We maintain really the same differences between the 3 main models here with GFS remaining the coldest option with now an even more continental feed. ECM stuck firmly in the mild, anticyclonic gloom camp and GEM a halfway horse between them with the high moving more back over the UK once more.

 

With these differences between the main 3 models showing as early as next Monday or +96 hours away all we can really say here is that anything at or beyond Monday is still very much up for grabs.

[geordiekev]

54 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Abd back down at day 9 sadly.. maybe a wedge into scandi at d10?

Again if we get anything near this set up, the depth & movement of the low coming out of the seaboard making big difference to what happens after with the Atlantic high as @icecold showing above

UKMO & the GFS overnight had deeper low propping up heights which effectively have knock on effect on PV. Till Day 5 is sorted everything else FI. Day 2 is FI atm

Edited January 6, 2022 by geordiekev

[Staffmoorlands]

3 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Can't believe how different the 3 main models are just in the next week. Here's 12z GFS, 12z ECM and 12z GEM

+24h Friday 7th

GFS                                                            ECM                                                         GEM

Seems we have agreement here for tomorrow at least for cold westerly winds with a threat of wintry showers.

+48h Saturday 8th

GFS                                                            ECM                                                         GEM

Again almost broad agreement here for a wet and windy Saturday and something a bit milder too.

+72h Sunday 9th

GFS                                                            ECM                                                         GEM

Slight differences here in how quickly low pressure clears away to our east but otherwise agreement on Sunday having better weather at least in terms of it been drier at least and a little less mild than Saturday.

+96h Monday 10th

GFS                                                            ECM                                                         GEM

This is where the main divergence starts to show itself between the 3 main models. GFS has more of a Scandi high developing compared with the ECM and GEM and as a consequence the GFS is less mild than ECM and GEM which are more keen to push in the next lot of milder air on Monday.

+120h Tuesday 11th

GFS                                                            ECM                                                         GEM

Even more differences here between the 3 main models. GFS is the coldest solution as it was less keen to bring in the milder air to start with and with high pressure more over the UK then we see cold and frosty weather taking over. ECM is the mildest solution with the Atlantic flow over the area of high pressure which is more to our south. GEM seems to be a middle of the road solution and the one you would probably bet on as it is between the other two.

+144h Wednesday 12th

GFS                                                            ECM                                                         GEM

The differences remain here between the 3 models and like with Tuesday the GFS is the coldest option and the ECM the mildest with GEM somewhere between the other 2 but GEM bringing a bit more of a milder influence into more northern parts with a slight southwards shift of the high.

+168 Thursday 13th

GFS                                                            ECM                                                         GEM

We maintain really the same differences between the 3 main models here with GFS remaining the coldest option with now an even more continental feed. ECM stuck firmly in the mild, anticyclonic gloom camp and GEM a halfway horse between them with the high moving more back over the UK once more.

 

With these differences between the main 3 models showing as early as next Monday or +96 hours away all we can really say here is that anything at or beyond Monday is still very much up for grabs.

Need to compare ECM 168 and UKMO 168 - very similar. GFS all over the place every 6 hrs as usual

[Nick F]

5 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Hi Nick, Judah Cohen climatologist Twitter blog worth a read.

Trouble is, as much he knows his stuff re: polar circulations, his predictions are heavily reliant on GFS and GEM free data, hardly ever see him refer to EC products in the extended range. And we know you can't make predictions far ahead without EC too! Not sure why he doesn't use EC.

[Weather-history]

13 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Need to compare ECM 168 and UKMO 168 - very similar. GFS all over the place every 6 hrs as usual

Funny enough the GFS 168hrs mean looks more like UKMO 168  than the ECM 168hr mean

              

[Nick F]

A look at the EPS spread for T+144 and 168 and it's evident there's a lot of uncertainty over heights to our N over GIN corridor and NE/E over Scandi. This likely related to how far north or south the jet stream is to our north ploughing east into Scandi - which in turn affects how far north high pressure ridges over the UK.

Edited January 6, 2022 by Nick F

[Don]

34 minutes ago, Nick F said:

It's funny how seemingly the EC never fails to disappoint when the GFS is repeatedly showing a better path for coldies. If only for once they'd agree out to day 10 other when they are both showing raging zonality! 

Last time I think there was solid agreement out to day 10 was possibly during the run up to the December 2010 cold spells?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, joggs said:

GFS first picking a trend up way out. It seems to handle over America better which the downstream effect effects us. ECM, slowly slowly catchy monkey......

I'd hazard a guess and say by Saturday, ECM will be more amplified.

I won’t, amplification is further down the line.  Come following Saturday then  yes it will show more at t120
 

BFTP

[phil nw.]

Checking the mean charts from both and by T168 they both have the high at a similar latitude.See WH>post above.

Tbh a Scandi high doesn't look to have any early prospects of establishing as the vortex stretches east across the Pole.The better chances for some cold in the UK in the medium term is the sharper Scandi trough showing up towards day 10 on the ECM mean chart.This is providing the High does nudge a little  west to allow a cold north or north westerly further on as suggested there.

Currently i think that looks the best prospect given there seems little appetite for any amplification in the Atlantic. 

[tight isobar]

44 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Never going to happen but we can dream, just 2 days before my birthday so I'm definitely in dream land right now 

 

Don’t bet against it. The American model will “always “ at some point be the pack leader and signal sniffer!..let’s hope it’s golden day is around now!.. @deep viewing of outs coming up!

[sebastiaan1973]

Little chance for a Scandihigh. 

[Penrith Snow]

33 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Funny enough the GFS 168hrs mean looks more like UKMO 168  than the ECM 168hr mean

              

Who cares which models looks alike they are all bloody ugly! Terrible which ever you choose.

[Daniel*]

06z Monday mean MSLP taken from EPS 

12z 06/01, 00z 06/01,12z 05/01

height rises in Scandinavia on increase… will that continue? Ironically we want Iberian heights to extend further north then they can link up and assist Scandi blocking.

 

Ignore these charts below having problems

Edited January 6, 2022 by Daniel*

[Mike Poole]

Not had time to post earlier today, but I think it needs to be stressed that the period of interest is not within the 10 day period, so whatever dross is shown up to then is what it is.  A subtle change in the extended clusters T264+ chart today:

The majority cluster is still the Greenland high, the second and to some extent the third show the Atlantic ridge transferring to Scandi, while the fourth looks less promising.  

But - at this range, none of the charts have the blue border (+NAO) so while the destination remains unclear, on this model at least, zonal flow from the Atlantic seems unlikely.  We are in the game for the latter third of January, I think.  That’s no guarantee, but it is something to chase over the next week or two!

[SqueakheartLW]

However grim the ECM output looks right now it would have appeared the same at this stage in 1947.

This was the chart for 6th January 1947 vs today's chart

1947                                                          2022

More of a Scandi high in 1947 but at this stage the Atlantic was going to win out just like it is at the moment.

Fast forward to 14th January and things in 1947 looked even more grim for coldies

1947                                                          2022 predicted chart from ECM

Things looked far worse on 14th January 1947 than what is predicted by ECM for the same date. Long fetch SW winds and very mild conditions. At least ECM isn't showing that for next week. However that ECM chart looks a bit more like the one for 18th January 1947.

Of course we all know what happened in 1947. The high built through the UK and then pushed up to Scandi and started off the big freeze that dominated the rest of that winter and the early spring too.

 

So you never know. The ECM may have already sniffed out a 1947 redux. Yeah, right, if only

Fingers crossed it has.

[swfc]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Not had time to post earlier today, but I think it needs to be stressed that the period of interest is not within the 10 day period, so whatever dross is shown up to then is what it is.  A subtle change in the extended clusters T264+ chart today:

The majority cluster is still the Greenland high, the second and to some extent the third show the Atlantic ridge transferring to Scandi, while the fourth looks less promising.  

But - at this range, none of the charts have the blue border (+NAO) so while the destination remains unclear, on this model at least, zonal flow from the Atlantic seems unlikely.  We are in the game for the latter third of January, I think.  That’s no guarantee, but it is something to chase over the next week or two!

Good Post mick. Not alot to go at but every one needs a goal

[Ice Day]

So a quick scan of tonight's GEFS vs yesterday's 12z shows a definite step back from some of the colder/snowier options on offer, although there are still some corkers, deep in FI of course.

   

However, given the pretty significant differences at just day 6 across the GFS / ECM / UKMO, volatility is today's watchword. Treat any output over the next few days, either mild or cold, with a healthy dose of scepticism.

  

Fingers crossed the GFS leads the way on this, but that's somewhat unlikely and wishful thinking on my part!

[legritter]

Hi gang , im hoping tonights gfs run can bring some cheer , is it sniffing out something or leading some of us on that garden path to mild muck after catching us like a fish on a hook .tonights ecm sent me off on one , the dog Bap did a runner upstairs, i fell asleep after my sausage bap , woke up and read tonights model output posts .Well gang ,great posts ,thanks for all those posters who research the charts etc , this can be a challenging hoby , still plenty of winter left ,cheers to you all .

[The Enforcer]

11 hours ago, The Enforcer said:

Still there at T+144:

 

Still consistently messing things up at T+144. At least it hasn't got any closer:

Edited January 6, 2022 by The Enforcer

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Firstly I think too many on here seem to think some of those posting on twitter are messiahs or clairvoyant,regarding if they said it then it must be looking good!!  Seriously folks many of them don't even know as much as many of the posters on here do! Apart from me off course

I think we could be onto something towards the final 3rd of the month and in towards February! I'm not gonna use 47 as comparison because that's been done to death,and its never a good idea to pattern match with previous years.

I think the 46 anomalies out towards months end look favourable.. looks like better Heights towards the NW...and at the very least an increase in the mid Atlantic ridge. I'm not going any further because these long range models always lose there way beyond 3 weeks and are subject to major variables.

Hope you get lucky with possible snow showers thus evening and on Friday....could be some lovely scenes

Keeping the cold alive at Matt.coldcamp.com forever and ever amen

[Frigid]

7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

So a quick scan of tonight's GEFS vs yesterday's 12z shows a definite step back from some of the colder/snowier options on offer, although there are still some corkers, deep in FI of course.

   

 

though short term, the ensembles look much better on todays 12z. possibly a cooler start next week than anticipated

[legritter]

Just read The post from SqueakheartLw ,the hunt is on gang  ,free baps all round , best weather forum around. Cheers ..