Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Ali1977]

As expected the northerly toppler has disappeared on the 12z that was showing on the 06z, HP still in charge at day 8. We’re FI hunting for a while yet me thinks!!

[Battleground Snow]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

As expected the northerly toppler has disappeared on the 12z that was showing on the 06z, HP still in charge at day 8. We’re FI hunting for a while yet me thinks!!

Nothing of interest before day 10, but a move away from a super positive AO at least.

A few runs go negative on the graph compared to zero yesterday

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Nothing of interest before day 10, but a move away from a super positive AO at least.

A few runs go negative on the graph compared to zero yesterday

Yes that big Russian high is trying to head our way, along with the cold!! b

Edited January 20, 2022 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

The likes of Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Northern Greece are having a brutal cold spell, and the whole GFS run keeps them in -8/12c uppers

Edited January 20, 2022 by Ali1977

[phil nw.]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The likes of Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Northern Greece are having a brutal cold spell, and the whole GFS run keeps them in -12c uppers

We can see this on the ukmo run as well ali.

Our stubborn high is helping to steer the cold that way.We can certainly do with the high regressing out into the Atlantic which would help bring us chances of something colder from the nw.

That's the only way currently i can see us getting anything wintry in the medium term as that pv is modeled to stubbornly reside to our nw.

[TSNWK]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The likes of Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Northern Greece are having a brutal cold spell, and the whole GFS run keeps them in -8/12c uppers

Meanwhile the UK sits in the little green wedge between cold to the north west and cold to the east..

[Battleground Snow]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The likes of Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Northern Greece are having a brutal cold spell, and the whole GFS run keeps them in -8/12c uppers

I'm going skiing to Bulgaria on a stag do on Feb 18th, so they will be under warm uppers by then.

Gem day 11 would have been a cold northernly

[tight isobar]

Very uninspiring! We are even beginning to loose the tease of colder signals now!. And ya have to wonder if by mid February it may even feel as though spring has sprung!.. we need an urgent change in overall Synoptics quite soon, or its... well need I say!. This is quickly going down as so very near... yet so very far winter season. The heart of the season is soon to be behind us.. yes there is possibilities- but there shrinking fast!.   Let’s just hope against the grain, that something will shortly give!!!!!

[Battleground Snow]

One Rogue ensemble wants a full blown Easterly by next Thursday.

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,UKMO at 168 hrs showing a northerly blast also ICON showing it a bit later interesting perhaps enough orientation from the high pressure to bring a bit of excitement to the site,all eyes on ECM tonight we can but hope for a glimmer of something to cheer up every body on this forum.

 

[Staffmoorlands]

UKMO 168 suggests a short lived cold snap with snow showers for those exposed to the north west winds

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Evening all,UKMO at 168 hrs showing a northerly blast also ICON showing it a bit later interesting perhaps enough orientation from the high pressure to bring a bit of excitement to the site,all eyes on ECM tonight we can but hope for a glimmer of something to cheer up every body on this forum.

 

The GEM and some ENS look open to colder possibilities by day 10/11

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Evening all,UKMO at 168 hrs showing a northerly blast also ICON showing it a bit later interesting perhaps enough orientation from the high pressure to bring a bit of excitement to the site,all eyes on ECM tonight we can but hope for a glimmer of something to cheer up every body on this forum.

 

I suspect when the change from the current settled spell comes it will be a sudden abrupt one as has been the theme of last 14 months weve had long spells of settled weather cancelling out unsettled but the changeover have been very sudden and marked.. it will probably catch us unawares just when it seems everything looks the same... 

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I suspect when the change from the current settled spell comes it will be a sudden abrupt one as has been the theme of last 14 months weve had long spells of settled weather cancelling out unsettled but the changeover have been very sudden and marked.. it will probably catch us unawares just when it seems everything looks the same... 

I hope so, it’s not like the drivers have been acting in their usual manner so what’s to say a flip to a monumental freeze isn’t out the equation. It’s all well and good saying it won’t , and obviously the METO don’t see it, but when has the U.K. weather ever done as expected beyond the reliable - and what has global warming done to these forecasts, maybe the drivers have flipped upside down!! 
A few more days of FI chasing is obviously on the cards, but we will hopefully be chasing more reliable colder options soon !! 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Ali1977

[minus10]

33 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Very uninspiring! We are even beginning to loose the tease of colder signals now!. And ya have to wonder if by mid February it may even feel as though spring has sprung!.. we need an urgent change in overall Synoptics quite soon, or its... well need I say!. This is quickly going down as so very near... yet so very far winter season. The heart of the season is soon to be behind us.. yes there is possibilities- but there shrinking fast!.   Let’s just hope against the grain, that something will shortly give!!!!!

Oh no, things must be bad when we get a downbeat post from you tight isobar....not used to it...time for the mattwolves snow helpline...wait .....he hasnt posted for a while...must be using it himself...

Now , if only, ...look north east

[blizzard81]

23 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I suspect when the change from the current settled spell comes it will be a sudden abrupt one as has been the theme of last 14 months weve had long spells of settled weather cancelling out unsettled but the changeover have been very sudden and marked.. it will probably catch us unawares just when it seems everything looks the same... 

I have been thinking the same thing for the last few days. Things can change suddenly with high pressure cells and they can 'do one' at short notice. The question is.... 'Do one to where exactly?' Hopefully not south or south eastwards. 

[johncam]

I think guys we need to honest with ourselves,  their isn't anything showing in the charts or from the met office to suggest anything wintry at all , I will give it till start of February and if their isn't anything showing it will be time to confine this winter to the bin 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, johncam said:

I think guys we need to honest with ourselves,  their isn't anything showing in the charts or from the met office to suggest anything wintry at all , I will give it till start of February and if their isn't anything showing it will be time to confine this winter to the bin 

Cue a barn storming ecm

[johncam]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Cue a barn storming ecm

Aye no doubt mate ,

[blizzard81]

12 minutes ago, johncam said:

 

Looking more ridgy in the right places. 

[syed2878]

4 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

There was no SSW in 62/3, 46/7 there are no records as recording SSWs started in '58.

We can and do get very cold snowy spell without an SSW. They are not the be all and end of, but after 2018's SSW and the mighty BFTE their importance has been heightened. That was an exceptional case.
I think SSWs are only responsible for about 50% of cold snowy spells of varying length.

  If I may make a point here the winters of 1962 1963 did have an SSW if I am right it was at the end of November on the Canadian side and I think it was the warming at 50HPA watched on gav’s weather Vids winter updates earlier on this year, he talked about it and showed some charts reanalysis from NOAA though I might be wrong about the level the warming took place. As far as I know the December 2010 did not have any SSW again I might be wrong about that and stand to be corrected.

[frosty ground]

47 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

UKMO 168 suggests a short lived cold snap with snow showers for those exposed to the north west winds

An interesting chart after what feels like weeks of nothing 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

An interesting chart after what feels like weeks of nothing 

ECM might be going the same way. 

[blizzard81]

Does that Iceland low REALLY dive back south westwards between 120 and 144? Strange if it does. 

[KTtom]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Does that Iceland low REALLY dive back south westwards between 120 and 144? Strange if it does. 

Good spot, there is no way it can do that which makes the rest of the run pretty pointless?!

Its heading southwest to north east from 96 to 120, hits a brick wall and does a 360 u turn..really!.

Edited January 20, 2022 by KTtom