Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[johncam]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

its not very interesting because it moves northeast..not southeast

Exactly , we need the high to at least back further west that would allow the trough to drop more south east 

[StingJet]

23 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

yes day 10 is absolutely brilliant! hahahahah

Indeed , great eagle eyes there B81!     Shetland and Orkney Isles dialling in some blizzards ..North is best on that chart !  Said potential needs to drop south a few hundred miles 

Edited January 19, 2022 by StingJet

[Cold Winter Night]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

its not very interesting because it moves northeast..not southeast

A large portion of the tPV on the move is very much interesting IMO.

And I'm glad it's not leaving NE Canada on a Southeasterly trajectory, because that would take us into a zonal, Atlantic pattern.

Now it's height rises over North America that push the tPV from the Western hemisphere to the Eastern Hemisphere far to our North, leaving the possibility open for "our" High (we can now call it that, can't we?) to push further North, leaving the back door open for part of the trough to sink South into Europe.

Ideally of course

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, StingJet said:

Indeed , great eagle eyes there F81!     Shetland and Orkney Isles dialling in some blizzards ..North is best on that chart !  Said potential needs to drop south a few hundred miles 

yea shetland to get an absolute pasting! in the south you maybe even need your sun cream! 

[Ali1977]

15 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

its not very interesting because it moves northeast..not southeast

It all moves East though, probably wrong but if not this is indeed a very good thing - much easier to build heights in behind it, and this also brings the cold very close to our North should we get any PM type flow.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 19, 2022 by Ali1977

[SqueakheartLW]

Shows how bad the output has got when the best cold charts are very few in either GFS 12z or GEM 12z

These are the best ones I can find from each model

GEM 12z

P6 +348h

I would take this at the moment considering what we have been getting even if it is a brief cold snap.

GEM 12z Mean at +348h

The mean however suggests an Atlantic westerly is on the way back, not great for cold or snow unless we can get some cold zonality into the mix here.

GFS 12z

P15 +384h

Come on weather gods, please deliver something like this at some point this winter.

GFS 12z Mean at +384h

A similar idea with the GFS mean like with the GEM mean in the fact the Atlantic is predicted to return. GFS looks worse with the direction of the wind however with a more W to SW flow rather than the more W to NW flow with the GEM so more likely Tm airmasses showing with the GFS.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It all moves East though, probably wrong but if not this is indeed a very good thing - much easier to build heights in behind it and brings the cold very close to our North should we get any PM TMtype flow.

here in the UK,where would you say are the best places for heights to build maybe northeast us into canada? would be nice to see that area to turn green and yellow

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

here in the UK,where would you say are the best places for heights to build maybe northeast us into canada? would be nice to see that area to turn green and yellow

No idea, no sign of anything building to the NE yet - maybe we need to be looking for ridges again and hoping they get high enough into the Arctic to topple into an easterly !! I’m still hoping all this weirdness leads to a sting in winters tail, that no one expected - even the METO 

[Blessed Weather]

1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

(SNIPPED)

I know there was an SSW before the late Feb 2018 easterly, and the cold spell of mid Jan 2013 and early Feb 2009.  Was there a SSW in the 2009-10 winter any time or before the Dec 2010 freeze?  

Does anyone know of a link to a site of past year's stratospheric temperatures?

This NOAA/CPC website is very useful. If you take the February 2018 SSW you can see the event on the following (10hPa 60-90N) temperature and zonal wind (U) charts that I've marked with an arrow.

On the link below you need to click on the 2018 T Mean N for the first chart and U Mean N for the second:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/

 

[Cold Winter Night]

20 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Now it's height rises over North America that push the tPV from the Western hemisphere to the Eastern Hemisphere far to our North, leaving the possibility open for "our" High (we can now call it that, can't we?) to push further North, leaving the back door open for part of the trough to sink South into Europe.

Ideally of course

Extended cluster no.4 does something like this, lowering Euro heights.
Clusters 1 and 2 try to, in a more half-hearted manner.

Wide variety of options though.

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Extended cluster no.4 does something like this, lowering Euro heights.
Clusters 1 and 2 try to, in a more half-hearted manner.

Wide variety of options though.

I quite like the luck of clusters 1 and 2 in the extended, gets rid of our HP as well as Europe’s - plenty snow opportunities in a colder NW’ly type set up - maybe

[blizzard81]

Looks like meteociel has just died.....of boredom probably. A very trying day on the model front. I can normally squeeze a positive glimmer or two but I can't today unfortunately. 

[Uncertainty]

7 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

Really bleak for coldies over the next 7-10 days.

AO and NAO positive with a raging trop vortex.

A cool WNW feed the best we can hope for in this time period.

Looking further ahead small hints of strat warmings, but nothing substantial.

La Nina looking to weaken fast, but it's too late for this year to make much difference now. ECM does have a little push out of cod on the MJO, but not by much and phase 6 composite for February is pretty much what we have now anyway.

The near miss at Xmas hurts even more now, as even a 7 day cold spell over the festive period would have been great.

Having said all that, February is still 11 days away and when the vortex does relent, there will be a lot of bottled cold to spill south into the mid latitudes, hopefully not all to USA and Canada.

 

That mjo chart is promising though. Mondays 46 took it well into the IO but it seems to take it back a little to the WP. The P7 composite is more interesting and I do think we’ll end up there or thereabouts later in Feb.

I have said for a while it always looked like there would be a zonal spell end of Jan, though it’s been delayed thanks to this incredibly persistent U.k HP. The question is how long will it last and what next. My guess is a shortish stormy spell, perhaps heading cold zonal and then blocking reestablishing. We have another +EAMT on the horizon and the clusters don’t have that Feb 2020 feel about them just yet. Might be a good time as @damianslawoften suggests to ease off the models and regroup once we see how this unsettled phase manifests.nevertheless credit to @Ali1977et al who provide updates all Winter round. There’s been a very good realism to this forum recently without being overly miserable so credit to everyone for staying objective and telling it how they see it.

As I said, I still think this winter has one last trick up its sleeve but it won’t be for a while yet. 
 

[damianslaw]

8 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

That mjo chart is promising though. Mondays 46 took it well into the IO but it seems to take it back a little to the WP. The P7 composite is more interesting and I do think we’ll end up there or thereabouts later in Feb.

I have said for a while it always looked like there would be a zonal spell end of Jan, though it’s been delayed thanks to this incredibly persistent U.k HP. The question is how long will it last and what next. My guess is a shortish stormy spell, perhaps heading cold zonal and then blocking reestablishing. We have another +EAMT on the horizon and the clusters don’t have that Feb 2020 feel about them just yet. Might be a good time as @damianslawoften suggests to ease off the models and regroup once we see how this unsettled phase manifests.nevertheless credit to @Ali1977et al who provide updates all Winter round. There’s been a very good realism to this forum recently without being overly miserable so credit to everyone for staying objective and telling it how they see it.

As I said, I still think this winter has one last trick up its sleeve but it won’t be for a while yet. 
 

Feb 20 only month I've ever taken off from model watching...

I sometimes suggest doing so in the depths of summer and more especially September when the weather can become quite uneventful.. but rarely in the core of winter. This January though is testing many a weather enthusiast for it's slow evolution. It feels like we are in hibernation mode waiting for things to wake up.. it will do eventually! Hang in there!

[skifreak]

Would take Feb 20 to mid end May 20 repeat! February 2020 brought huge amounts of snow to the Scottish Ski Areas, season was morphing into an epic when Covid pulled the plug. Have seen some charts in the ensembles suggesting the Northern Highlands could see 50cm plus of snow, while South of the Great Glen and thus the ski areas see next to nothing. Risk the blizzards could get South of Shetland to the mainland and still not benefit the ski areas!

[PiscesStar]

Painfully slow progress this morning I see. On the latest gfs run... Time is ticking... Is this going to go down as the winter that promised so much and delivered SO LITTLE?? 

[chris55]

I think in the mid term our only chance is a more amplified Atlantic ridge toppling into some sort of sceuro’ high. 
 

Looks a long shot to get a proper easterly flow going though, as with the pressure from the PV over the top any scandi/Sceuro’ high would tend to be flattened. 
 

However a continental influence at least to begin with could then develop into something a bit better. 
 

GFS ensembles showing quite a big spread in 850s, those colder runs going with the northerly toppler into the Sceuro high.

 

 

Edited January 20, 2022 by chris55

[mb018538]

I think we are starting to see signs that this very long anticyclonic spell will start to break down around the end of the month/start of Feb. AAM has fallen off a cliff, and the strat and trop are starting to connect. With such a strong PV, this pretty much means mobile Atlantic weather is going to move in.

For the time being though, the rest of January looks very dry for all barring the far NW corner of Scotland. Little or no rain for many.

[Nick F]

41 minutes ago, chris55 said:

I think in the mid term our only chance is a more amplified Atlantic ridge toppling into some sort of sceuro’ high. 
 

Looks a long shot to get a proper easterly flow going though, as with the pressure from the PV over the top any scandi/Sceuro’ high would tend to be flattened. 
 

However a continental influence at least to begin with could then develop into something a bit better. 
 

GFS ensembles showing quite a big spread in 850s, those colder runs going with the northerly toppler into the Sceuro high.

 

 

Perhaps briefly in the short-term, but I'd say a Sceuro high is looking the least likely option in the medium to extended range of the models at the moment.

There are signs of a pattern change upstream over N America in ensemble means, with the current trough over the east moving back to the west and ridging developing over eastern N America. This pulls the ridge over NW Europe west over the Atlantic towards the end of the month into early Feb - allowing more of a westerly to northwesterly trajectory of the upper flow from Greenland / NE Canada into northern/northeastern Europe. So, with time, turning more unsettled and mobile in the north and perhaps eventually in the south at times. With chances of Pm air across the north increasing, could bring some much needed snow for the Scottish ski industry, but for the rest of us, any sign of snow way off!

Edited January 20, 2022 by Nick F

[sheikhy]

27 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I think we are starting to see signs that this very long anticyclonic spell will start to break down around the end of the month/start of Feb. AAM has fallen off a cliff, and the strat and trop are starting to connect. With such a strong PV, this pretty much means mobile Atlantic weather is going to move in.

For the time being though, the rest of January looks very dry for all barring the far NW corner of Scotland. Little or no rain for many.

So basically if we thought it was bad now its about to get a whole lot worse!!!

[Guest]

No doubt where February is heading....milder, wetter and a whole lot more zonal.

Edited January 20, 2022 by DCee

[mb018538]

27 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

So basically if we thought it was bad now its about to get a whole lot worse!!!

Not necessarily.....I certainly don't have a crystal ball! Just my thoughts on where we are heading. Met Office latest forecast looks quite similar with a NW/SE bias setting up into early Feb, which is traditional UK zonal fayre. 

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,This amazing high pressure that has been with us through January looks like holding on to the end of January before a more mobile system possibly shows it’s hand.ECM shows a short northerly once again so we continue to live in hope. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ali1977]

Going Zonal isn’t a bad thing and we should expect temps to rise as we lose the colder nights. We need to get rid of the U.K./Euro HP as with that still in place we have no chance, so a spell of Zonal is a step in the right direction hopefully!! 
 

The zonal set up looks good for the Cairngorms at least with the snow row back in the 20s into Feb - I imagine Feb  is the best month to profit from PM type flows as the sea is at its coldest and the NH is at its coldest
 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Ali1977

[Singularity]

Depending on how you feel about late season cold weather, a possible silver lining to the emergence of a strongly +AO pattern is that it provides a good pathway for vertical wave activity flux to reach the mid-upper stratosphere and put the polar vortex under greater pressure than it has been so far this winter.

Of course this depends on high pressure being in the right place i.e. across the Urals. GFS is keen on that but support from other modelling isn’t strong at this time.