Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[sukayuonsensnow]

6 minutes ago, carinthian said:

According to GFS long term snow probabilty chart out to early Feb, Kent has a very low snow risk. It could of course be wrong !

C

Lost all confidence in GFS after the Christmas/New Year period. GFS has performed especially poorly this season, and if anything the fact we aren't seeing winter nirvana charts on it currently may work in our favour later on. I personally see this as a positive sign, if GFS was showing a cold spell 3 weeks away chances are it won't happen. Something will creep up on us out of seemingly nowhere.

I'd say anywhere southeast of a line between Weymouth and East Yarmouth should keep an eye on the forecasts towards the end of the month and early-mid February. Seeing too much uncertainty for these regions in the monthly/long range forecasts compared to elsewhere in the UK. Maybe others depending on how much of an influence low pressure has in NW UK.

[mb018538]

This is getting a bit ridiculous. The ecm 00z run has the high not really budging at all, and even intensifying back up to 1045mb by day 10. This is quite remarkable to be seeing this in mid January!

[throwoff]

31 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Lost all confidence in GFS after the Christmas/New Year period. GFS has performed especially poorly this season, and if anything the fact we aren't seeing winter nirvana charts on it currently may work in our favour later on. I personally see this as a positive sign, if GFS was showing a cold spell 3 weeks away chances are it won't happen. Something will creep up on us out of seemingly nowhere.

100% agree with this. GFS has not been on the money for a long while

[Downburst]

On 17/01/2022 at 09:36, Downburst said:

The odd thing about January to me is even though its 31 days like most months it seems to go on and on. It's still a full two weeks before end of month. Normally that would mean we wouldn't really have  a clue what the weather would be like at the end of the month, but this year there is a  lack of momentum in the global circulation means we have a pretty good idea, but there are changes

Most recent EC 46 day shows the 500 hPa  High anomaly move west and lower pressure in the southern continent for first week of Feb

the previous run on Monday didn't show that low in the south

So there is a good chance first week of February will be a noticeable change with more wintriness in the north at least as its very possible to see a trough to our west and norther west digging in, and of course this could amplify between now and then to return to a normal period of mid winter at least. 

Well that tentative lower pressure for south Europe has gone east and first week February now not much change in the pattern. 

[Mark Smithy]

The reason the GFS is so keen to bring back the Atlantic is this.

I made the mistake a month back of disregarding the signals when the GFS picked up on them. It often seems to get this right.

[That ECM]

A bit of interest? T270 on 06z gfs, says it all.

[TSNWK]

Not one 

3 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

The reason the GFS is so keen to bring back the Atlantic is this.

I made the mistake a month back of disregarding the signals when the GFS picked up on them. It often seems to get this right.

I was wondering why you mentioned the 00z sinking the high south east and I presume the same on 06z.. 

It's an option.. and if GFS has  modeld the jet correct then we need to brace ourselves for traditional zonal from current stagnation...

Happy days...

[Staffmoorlands]

40 minutes ago, throwoff said:

100% agree with this. GFS has not been on the money for a long while

GFS was predicting ice days for this week only a few days back. Reality 7c! 
 

[chapmanslade]

9 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

GFS was predicting ice days for this week only a few days back. Reality 7c! 
 

In fog, if it persists - which is what may happen. I'm currently looking out of the window down on to an inverted layer of freezing fog at 11.00am.

[Ali1977]

I think if we stopped model watching for 10 days we’d still Be looking at a boring FI the way this is going!! Lots of time left for decent freezes but March freezes need much better Synoptics than a Feb one - im not giving up hope just yet. 

[Cold Winter Night]

This morning's EPS has the High sitting here up til day 7/8. We know the drill.

Then, in the 192h-240h period, there is a bit of a split between members/clusters. Some are placing heights further East, and some place it more to the West and North. Clusters 4 and 5 have somewhat lower heights over Southern Europe.

In the Bilt, this results in a larger 2m temperature spread in that period, with the colder members representing the better clusters (for coldies). Nothing impressive by the way, but this does show that the more positive GEFS solutions, and the GEM, are represented in the EPS as well.

The extended 264h-360h clusters have this split too, but both clusters indicate a continued sequence of weakish amplification, with waves roling though, but not a fixed pattern setting in.
No blocking, no zonal onslaught.

Yesterday's EC46 slightly reduced the probability of a NAO+ regime in February (compared to last Thursday), in favour of a bit more Atlantic ridging.

This picture is not far from climatological probabilities, so not really leaning in any direction. BLO+ (positive height anomaly over Scandinavia) is still very much an option. Don't count on a switch to NAO- (Greenland High) though.

[swfc]

Yes, get the cold in first, retrogression, sst, ssw, qbo, sunspots. Hmmm still could be worse ie rain and wind. Does anyone know if you can plant tumble weed, tia

[mb018538]

4 hours ago, Mark Smithy said:

The reason the GFS is so keen to bring back the Atlantic is this.

I made the mistake a month back of disregarding the signals when the GFS picked up on them. It often seems to get this right.

I wouldn’t be putting any faith in the GFS at the moment. Look at those accuracy stats. Horrendously bad. Stick with the ECM (blue line) and you won’t go far wrong. Consistently the best performing model week after week.

[phil nw.]

Pretty good agreement from the ens means and the ecm clustering that the high sticks around until at least day 10.Later gefs and clusters though showing it edging south with more of the Atlantic coming over the top.

At first this may not sound good for coldies but maybe time for something away from this stuck pattern with nothing of Winter interest other than a few frosts and local fog,mainly further south.It may not be a milder change,if we can see the jet angled on a nw-se path.

06z gfs mean

This towards the back end of week 2 but at least a trend to follow for something different.More of a wintry possibility from there i would think.

Edited January 18, 2022 by phil nw.

[sukayuonsensnow]

3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Pretty good agreement from the ens means and the ecm clustering that the high sticks around until at least day 10.Later gefs and clusters though showing it edging south with more of the Atlantic coming over the top.

At first this may not sound good for coldies but maybe time for something away from this stuck pattern with nothing of Winter interest other than a few frosts and local fog,mainly further south.It may not be a milder change,if we can see the jet angled on a nw-se path.

06z gfs mean

This towards the back end of week 2 but at least a trend to follow for something different.More of a wintry possibility from there i would think.

I think if we get a cold spell it will be an easterly and may be most likely to affect more southeastern parts. Depends on the orientation of high pressure, and how much inroads low pressure makes into north/northwestern UK.

[SqueakheartLW]

Give me GFS 06z P25 please

Tue 25th Jan 12:00     850hpa temp -1.3C

Wed 26th Jan 12:00     850hpa temp -6.0C

Thu 27th Jan 12:00     850hpa temp -10.2C

Fri 28th Jan 12:00     850hpa temp -10.2C

Sat 29th Jan 12:00     850hpa temp -9.3C

Sun 30th Jan 12:00     850hpa temp -9.9C

Mon 31st Jan 12:00     850hpa temp -9.0C

Tue 1st Feb 12:00     850hpa temp -9.2C

Wed 2nd Feb 12:00     850hpa temp -12.6C

[phil nw.]

8 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

I think if we get a cold spell it will be an easterly and may be most likely to affect more southeastern parts. Depends on the orientation of high pressure, and how much inroads low pressure makes into north/northwestern UK.

It would be good but easterlies are becoming a rare species these days.

We can only take from the charts what they show currently and tbh there is more chance of any cold from the north or north west after this current pattern breaks.The trend is for low heights to continue across the north and maybe trough into Scandinavia rather than any high there.

[Bill4321]

Hi Guys

I've been following the various MOD threads for a long time so thought I'd finally post a chart. The NASA/GOES5 10 day chart has the high more towards the north west possibly Iceland bound allowing colder air into the south east. I'm not sure if the model is rated on here but maybe worth keeping an eye on

 

 

 

Edited January 18, 2022 by Bill4321
Typo

[northwestsnow]

 

Ukmo 144 

Small chance of a pressure rise to our NW ..

[damianslaw]

All eyes on the position of the cold core of the PV. It has shifted from west to east and back again all winter opening up windows for mid Atlantic heights to ridge north but not far enough to allow anything substantively cold from the north.

My hunch is we will a sinking of the high south but not much then SW then west as we see scandi trough form and this could be enough to pull down something cold and wintry from the NW and not just a one day wonder.. before back to westerly..

High pressure then westerlies then north westerlies then westerlies.. both the westerlies and north westerlies will have a cold bite to them. 

[sebastiaan1973]

4 hours ago, Cold Winter Night said:

This morning's EPS has the High sitting here up til day 7/8. We know the drill.

Then, in the 192h-240h period, there is a bit of a split between members/clusters. Some are placing heights further East, and some place it more to the West and North. Clusters 4 and 5 have somewhat lower heights over Southern Europe.

 

 

 

Yesterday's EC46 slightly reduced the probability of a NAO+ regime in February (compared to last Thursday), in favour of a bit more Atlantic ridging.

This picture is not far from climatological probabilities, so not really leaning in any direction. BLO+ (positive height anomaly over Scandinavia) is still very much an option. Don't count on a switch to NAO- (Greenland High) though.

Almost all winter no negative NAO in these charts.

[Don]

1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

Pretty good agreement from the ens means and the ecm clustering that the high sticks around until at least day 10.Later gefs and clusters though showing it edging south with more of the Atlantic coming over the top.

At first this may not sound good for coldies but maybe time for something away from this stuck pattern with nothing of Winter interest other than a few frosts and local fog,mainly further south.It may not be a milder change,if we can see the jet angled on a nw-se path.

06z gfs mean

This towards the back end of week 2 but at least a trend to follow for something different.More of a wintry possibility from there i would think.

This is along the lines of the latest Metoffice monthly forecast.  However, with very little in the way of snow and any likely to be restricted to high ground in the north.

[Ali1977]

Well at least the NH PV looking a bit more battered in this run - comparing it to the 06z

[Cold Winter Night]

7 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Almost all winter no negative NAO in these charts.

Correct. And it's true that we haven't had a real, lasting NAO- (if only...), but it completely missed the Christmas NAO- episode and picked it up only a week or so in advance. The same  a couple of days in January.

I'm not EC46's biggest fan, but this shows all the more that we should not dismiss even a small probability 2-3 weeks out in sub-seasonal products.

[snowray]

Spot the difference....is someone taking the pishhhhh?