Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Cuban Zebra]

If we were to name this thread, The Hunt for settled and snowless, we’d be feet deep within days!!!

[Sever siberian icy blast 2]

Erm I think this is gonna be one hard frustrating winter, it's a waiting game, into Feb we no can deliver easily under the right synoptics, yes stronger sun etc, but get sub - 5 850s with a channel low with a gentle easterly and it won't get above zero and will settle easily. 

I think I'm praying crypto will pay out by 2030 and il but a house in the alps as a get away! 

[Cold Winter Night]

In the 192h-240h clusters there is one true Scandinavian High (cluster 6). With no less than 4 members
The pessimist will say that that's far from 51 members, the optimist will be certain that these 4 will verify and the realist will note that at least it's more than this morning.

It sticks around as cluster 5 in the extended. The rest is more of what we already know.

[bobbydog]

The problem is, there is no forcing to disrupt the current hemispheric pattern.

Even the strat vortex is a feeble mess.

This limpet high pressure over us, whilst it is bringing frost and fog, is becoming about as welcome as Prince Andrew at a prom party...

 

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

The problem is, there is no forcing to disrupt the current hemispheric pattern.

Even the strat vortex is a feeble mess.

This limpet high pressure over us, whilst it is bringing frost and fog, is becoming about as welcome as Prince Andrew at a prom party...

 

 

Edited January 17, 2022 by feb1991blizzard
Ill advised - ill thought out post - sorry.

[Chesil View]

This winter is starting to remind me very much of some of the late nineties and early 2000's winters where the really cold weather was literally just the other side of the north sea for weeks on end without ever getting here.

[blizzard81]

These are a little more encouraging from the ecm. 

[damianslaw]

14 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

This winter is starting to remind me very much of some of the late nineties and early 2000's winters where the really cold weather was literally just the other side of the north sea for weeks on end without ever getting here.

Apart from winter 00-01 those winters were very atlantic driven, wet and windy, the winter so far has been far from that.. more akin to winter 91-92, 16-17 to an extent and shades of 05-06. 

Edited January 17, 2022 by damianslaw

[Singularity]

For the southern half to two-thirds of the UK, the outlook until further notice is colder than average - even against the 1981-2010 baseline - but with the nights doing most of the work except when & where fog lingers well into the day, perhaps more widely during one or two brief polar incursions.

Its just not an exciting colder than average. It is however delivering some exceptionally springlike weather in places for January with crisp mornings and warming sunshine by noon, which for those at the receiving end who appreciate such conditions, is most welcome after an extremely dull December.

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, Singularity said:

For the southern half to two-thirds of the UK, the outlook until further notice is colder than average - even against the 1981-2010 baseline - but with the nights doing most of the work except when & where fog lingers well into the day, perhaps more widely during one or two brief polar incursions.

Its just not an exciting colder than average. It is however delivering some exceptionally springlike weather in places for January with crisp mornings and warming sunshine by noon, which for those at the receiving end who appreciate such conditions, is most welcome after an extremely dull December.

Yes turning into an average month at least CET wise.. I've commented that I think the 5.5 degree current figure is too high in this respect...

Whilst the sun is gaining a little strength it is still very weak, today temps struggled to make more than 4 degrees after a low of -1 degrees.. the sun is not having much effect, and won't do for a good month or so at least.

[blizzard81]

When high pressure is slap bang over us, things can rapidly change for the better. Look at this example from Jan 1941. How it changed so much within 6 days. 

[stodge]

Evening all

Rumours of the death of anticyclonic clearly exaggerated tonight.

T+240 charts from the 12Z suite:

ECM, GEM, JMA and GFS OP

Not quite "spot the difference" and some notable differences in other parts of the charts but atmospheric pressure of 1040MB or higher across southern Britain - I suspect the barometric pressure records for January will be under threat in terms of the longevity of high pressure. Occasional pulses west allow a northerly feed to bring in some colder air but for now the colder air remains either to the south east or far to the north.

I don't see how we break out of this currently - the Atlantic  jet firing up would seem the obvious route but we're going through a big storm over there and that's not done it - perhaps the ongoing trop-strat disconnect means there's not enough energy upstream to erode the continually rebuilding Atlantic MLB. There is enough energy however to prevent retrogression which would seem the other route to a pattern change so we're at a stalemate - too much energy for retrogression not enough for a zonal breakthrough.

 

[North-Easterly Blast]

So far this winter I can think of two occasions when the pattern has got half way there to delivering the UK a significant cold spell, but the pattern has just failed to come together.  The first good pattern for a cold spell we saw was in the week before Christmas, when there was a good HP block to the north of the UK, and it delivering a cold spell looked very possible, but it just did not come together and LP did not undercut the block and instead got in over the UK and then a week later became stationary to the west of the UK bringing the record warm new year.  A week after that we got a brief northerly (a toppler) that gave a colder few days and a bit of snow for a few but nothing major.  Then for the second time this winter at this very moment we are having the second opportunity that looked possible for a significant cold spell to develop, but the HP has just not built far enough north and west of the UK and the pattern has again just not come together to bring a proper cold spell to the UK.  Clearly this winter we have had two failed attempts of a cold spell in the UK.  This winter so far is just like a case of there been a fair amount of cold air to the north and east of the UK, but the pattern just not quite coming together to allow the cold nearby to succeed in becoming established over the UK or even paying us a visit.  Just everything has gone wrong so far this winter on two attempts in the weather pattern to get cold into the UK.

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Apart from winter 01-02 those winters were very atlantic driven, wet and windy, the winter so far has been far from that.. more akin to winter 91-92, 16-17 to an extent and shades of 05-06. 

Winter 1991-92 had some inversion cold at times from a Rex block but saw next to nothing in the way of proper cold synoptics and deep cold air.  This HP spell and the spell just before Christmas so far hasn't or didn't even bring much in the way of inversion cold.  Are you sure damianslaw that you do not mean 2000-01 and not 2001-02?  2000-01 as a whole featured a fair amount of cold outbreaks especially for the north but less so for the south and was average rather than mild overall.  2001-02 saw a fairly cold (but nothing exciting) December mainly under HP over the UK but did have a couple of northerly spells late in the month and a cold HP lasted until early January but then went downhill significantly and the rest of that winter was very mild, especially second half of Jan and most of Feb 2002. 

This January does bear some similarities in my view to Jan 2017, which also had long spells of HP close to the UK in a pattern that never came together from a significant cold perspective.  You are right about 2005-06; that winter had a fair amount of cold air to the east of the UK and was very blocked, but the blocking never set up favourably to bring significant cold to the UK, and it was really a failed opportunity of a cold winter.

[Don]

18 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

When high pressure is slap bang over us, things can rapidly change for the better. Look at this example from Jan 1941. How it changed so much within 6 days. 

Problem is a number of long range forecasts are currently forecasting the high pressure to sink south rather than build north west.  They could be wrong of course but where will the forcing needed come from?

[CoxR]

GFS verification stats 5 days in advance for Northern Hemisphere compared to ECM. Sounds about right!

 

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

Problem is a number of long range forecasts are currently forecasting the high pressure to sink south rather than build north west.  They could be wrong of course but where will the forcing needed come from?

I think there's a good chance it won't sink south. The ecm has moved away from this idea which is exactly what we needed to see. Hopefully the next suite will solidify this. Then we can start thinking about much more favourable alternatives. Namely retrogression of the high. 

[Alexis]

42 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

When high pressure is slap bang over us, things can rapidly change for the better. Look at this example from Jan 1941. How it changed so much within 6 days. 

Fingers crossed we get that and not 1949 - after a very dry anticyclonic January, February was pretty much the same. And March was the coldest of all the winter months, but still nothing to write home about.

[Don]

Any news on the EC46?

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Any news on the EC46?

Yes - again the return of zonality delayed a tad further but still evident in its later output. It looks wrong to me though, High anomaly retrogressing but trough  or better described as low anomaly also backing West at same time - obviouusly cant really tell though as its weekly anomalies.

Edited January 17, 2022 by feb1991blizzard

[cold snap]

GFS 18z trying to bring in  Easterly

[Don]

1 minute ago, cold snap said:

GFS 18z trying to bring in  Easterly

Credit to the GFS, it does its best for coldies!

[Nick F]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

Credit to the GFS, it does its best for coldies!

Not quite good enough though, unless you're on the Adriatic coast of Italy - which sees some snow showers in the cold easterly flow there. 

Still, dry and cold continental flow may rock some people's boats.

Just can't get our now friendly high to gain enough latitude.

Edited January 17, 2022 by Nick F

[Mike Poole]

We are stuck in a rut.

We are looking for a way out.

GFS 18z has this at T192 and T240:

Not budging, well it will have to in the end and the key question is does it budge to the northeast or northwest eventually, or sink?  Still no clear answers so we continue to watch…

[Don]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Not budging, well it will have to in the end and the key question is does it budge to the northeast or northwest eventually, or sink?  Still no clear answers so we continue to watch…

The likely option at the moment is the sinking one sadly.  This is according to the long range models and forecasts.  However, like I said earlier, they could be wrong!

Edited January 17, 2022 by Don

[northwestsnow]

Might look mild , but it really isn't...

I've given up on snow anytime soon ,so I'm hunting Frost and fog

Edited January 17, 2022 by northwestsnow