Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[ANYWEATHER]

4 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I said yesterday that the UK covers 0.01 percent of the Earth's surface . Getting real cold is a lottery , ....Some very cold nights by the end of the week  as that cold front clears south bringing residual  Artic air......

 

[minus10]

Seems gfs is not just on the same page as the euros but not in the same library !

 

[January Snowstorm]

Yes for much of Europe its been quite a cold Winter with that cold continuing over the next 10 days. They must look on a UK high like we look on a Greenland one!

The Icon is indeed encouraging tonight and can often set the theme for the ECM. Here's hoping!!

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,GFS/UKMO/ICON/GEM bringing in colder 850 hpa  at around 72 hrs due to high retrogression

to our west/northwest.A spell of colder temperatures on the cards with possible snow showers in the east

for how long is still up for grabs depending on movement of high pressure,expect some severe frosts and

freezing fog in places no signs of high pressure losing it’s grip at present very unusual January weather wise.

 

[Gowon]

From the NH view the UKMO is not that different to the GFS and ICON at 144h which are both very similar. The GEM doesn't look like any of them.

 

[GSP]

34 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Holland / Germany are in for at least 4 spells of fairly potent cold in next couple of weeks according to gfs run...we really are geographically  located in the wrong place..

Yep. Perfectly placed for wind farms, not!

[Chesil View]

16 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

and most likely to be not far off the mark...somehow I have no confidence on what the gfs runs are saying after approximately D7-8.

I don't have confidence in any model after day 7-8. Including ECM,seen so many BBC forecasts change in that range.

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS steadily downgrading run by run bit by bit, that is usually the operational, the ensembles usually just completely collapse in 3 runs once they get to 190-240, that is usually with an E'ly though to be fair.

[Singularity]

GEM 12z is a partial reversion back toward a less flat outcome in the 7-10 day range.

I've had a look to see what might explain the sudden switch to flatter outcomes from this model and ECM. The tropics offer little guidance, with not much organisation to deep convection to be found and frictional torques (FTs) having already hit a 'floor' at about -2 sigma, having been heavily countered lately by positive mountain torque events. The net result being the GWO analysis falling gradually through phase 0, within which it has relatively little steering power with respect to the broad-scale weather patterns.

That suggest that the flattening of the pattern is stratosphere-driven. The GFS 12z instead keeps the focus of the lower polar vortex divided between Canada & Scandinavia. There's lately been a trend to put back any cessation of that setup, but of course, it can only go on so long. Still, given that the GFS 06z very much saw an end to it, it's interesting that the 12z has reverted (with GEM also doing to to a lesser extent).

Looking further ahead, with FTs having floored, the groundworks may be laid for a new AAM rise by the closing days of this month. However, the models are all over the place when it comes to what role, if any, the MJO plays in that. Then there's the matter of whether the polar vortex will give HLB formations a hard time regardless. GFS is hinting that it might not, but GEFS and EPS only show partial interest, with a wide spread by a fortnight from now. The view becomes about as foggy as the recent weather in parts of England!

[northwestsnow]

Thankfully EC better this evening...

[Singularity]

        

On the theme of reversions - the ECM 12z has bounced back quite a way compared to the previous 12z. Puts it close to GFS, but with the low south of Greenland having a slightly positive rather than negative tilt to its eastern flank. Appears to be headed for further strong HP centred right over or slightly SE of the UK.

[Cold Winter Night]

192h, ECM bringing a large chunk of tPV East again. Indeed it took a step towards GFS.

[Summer Snow]

ECM Day 10

 

Groundhog day - at least in the movie there was a snowstorm on the way.....in reality for us, it is more of the same with high pressure seemingly glued to our shores for the foreseeable....

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I don't have confidence in any model after day 7-8. Including ECM,seen so many BBC forecasts change in that range.

Nor do I, but in general I know which model will be the least accurate at that range!

[Chesil View]

Yet again  instead of High latitude Blocking  We have mid latitude BOREDOM.

[mountain shadow]

I mentioned at the start of January why we were not likely to see a decent cold spell during January and so it has turned out.

The semi permanent tropospheric PV over NE Canada has proved resilient and there is absolutely nothing the model output that shows it moving or weakening anytime soon. The atmosphere is very stable with nothing to change to the status quo.

I fear we are at least another month away from anything decent at all.

[SqueakheartLW]

It would seem we have another selection of decent ensemble members to choose from within the GFS 12z and GEM 12z. As there are a lot of charts to show here I have split this up into 2 posts. The first one features the GFS 12z selection, the following will the the GEM 12z selection.

GFS 12z

On the 12z I shall present P18 and P25

Yes, 2 members I thought were decent from around that key date the 26th January onwards again so at least this isn't getting pushed back if the best members are the trend setters in the end.

P18

26th January 12:00     850hpa temp -11.9C

27th January 12:00     850hpa temp -12.8C

28th January 12:00     850hpa temp -12.3C

29th January 12:00     850hpa temp -10.8C

30th January 12:00     850hpa temp -8.7C

31st January 12:00     850hpa temp -8.9C

1st February 12:00     850hpa temp -6.5C

P25

26th January 12:00     850hpa temp -3.4C

27th January 12:00     850hpa temp -8.8C

28th January 12:00     850hpa temp -9.8C

29th January 12:00     850hpa temp -9.6C

30th January 12:00     850hpa temp -9.6C

31st January 12:00     850hpa temp -11.6C

1st February 12:00     850hpa temp -8.9C

[SqueakheartLW]

GEM 12z

As for the GEM 12z I have also identified 2 decent members and on this one I present you P4 and P13

P4

26th January 12:00     850hpa temp -8.0C

27th January 12:00     850hpa temp -8.0C

28th January 12:00     850hpa temp -9.7C

29th January 12:00     850hpa temp -11.2C

30th January 12:00     850hpa temp -7.7C

31st January 12:00     850hpa temp -13.3C

1st February 12:00     850hpa temp -12.0C

P13

26th January 12:00     850hpa temp -10.8C

27th January 12:00     850hpa temp -7.9C

28th January 12:00     850hpa temp -5.2C

29th January 12:00     850hpa temp -7.4C

30th January 12:00     850hpa temp -7.0C

31st January 12:00     850hpa temp -9.3C

1st February 12:00     850hpa temp -10.8C

[Dancerwithwings]

squeakheartLW....Just a thanks for your time...better than somber/negative posts

All is fruitful in what’s on show, let’s hope it’ll come to fruition

[SLEETY]

Tiny signs of optimism aAfter squeakheartlw post and ECM was an improvement from this morning,,yes the last two frames were crud ,but they rarely verify anyway,

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 12z ......chances for a few down the East coast on Thursday.

[Uncertainty]

Day 10 ECM and it’s as you were…

 

If it carries on much longer, it might be known as the ‘great’ U.K. high of January 2022. Such is it’s extraordinary persistence.
 

Its still going at the end of the JMA run, with yet more reinforcements arriving from the Atlantic, never amplified enough to force a snow event here, but enough to ward off the storm track once again 

 

GFS Still at it at day 475

It is also becoming increasingly likely that February will have to go some cyclonic way to save the Euro based seasonals from their DJF forecasts.
 

The hideous 0z EPS might have done it, but hopefully some change there tonight (hint - there is…)

The good news for members of the Anti long fetch SWerly alliance tonight is that the EC op has dropped the breakdown completely, breaking the run of 2 in a row that brought in a rather ugly pattern by day 8-9.

Yesterday’s 12z at day 10

 

Todays 12z 216

 

The difference between the models seem to stem from the Storm leaving the US around day 7

Icon has it stalling and deepening, reamplifying the Atlantic ridge.

The GEM is faster with the low and thus ends up with less separation between it and the Scandi trough. We are spared a full Atlantic onslaught due to some of the energy rather dubiously heading S into a low to the far SW

ECM is a halfway house, threatening to amplify at day 7

Only to push the high back towards the U.K. 

The GFS, and even the NAVGEM, are closer to the Icon

 

 

So overall quite good support for the ‘continued amplification / reinforcement of the U.K. high option touted by the GFS recently. And, for now at least, another delay of the long awaited cyclonic push. 
 

Finally, having viewed a good proportion of the extended eps, and now the clusters, I can tell you they are far less terrible than zonal domination of the 0z. Though still not particularly exciting.

The big question for me remains

- When the breakdown finally does come, will it be followed by weeks of Feb 2020 style  oblivion? Or Will it be a short zonal spell heralding  a pattern change to a more eventful, perhaps snowy / cold evolution for the final third of winter?

Im sure I know what the EC46 is going to say, but I still think it the AAM rebounds and if the Ural heights do manage to take hold (big ifs) then the east Nina background state might allow for the option most of us on this thread crave. No real evidence for that yet. But nothing conclusive to say it’s off the table either…
 

 

[legritter]

Hi gang ,some great posts yet again on our top notch weather forum .we seem to get extremes of weather these days , for our part of the northern hemisphere its been flat and boring lately ,I've managed to remain Calm ,no toys out of the pram ,slightly upset at the charts , but great to see posters chasing any sign of cold ,even glancing shots .So my Straw clutch at the moment is the nxt pattern change ,with 6 weeks of Meteorological winter left and not forgetting March and the fact that we have a very cold Arctic, i think theres a very good chance that our very unwelcome high pressure will soon get fed up with our shores and do one .GFS soon , keep the faith gang ,. 

 

 

[SqueakheartLW]

22 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

GFS 12z ......chances for a few down the East coast on Thursday.

That's a rather big coastline. Those showers come a way inland if that chart verifies. Even Scunthorpe could be in the game there.

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

That's a rather big coastline. Those showers come a way inland if that chart verifies. Even Scunthorpe could be in the game there.

Yes, and there’s just about enough time to Thursday for an upgrade or two, now maybe if the high could shift just marginally out further west.....