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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

Community Team

By Community Team
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread and use the winter chat thread for non-model related discussion.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

For less of a cold-slanted look at the models, please head over to the alternate model discussion. 

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

Just to highlight how things have improved over the last 48 hours. The charts for next Wed's. The first from 2 days ago then the latest. 

gfsnh-0-144.png

gfsnh-0-96.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Just to highlight how things have improved over the last 48 hours. The charts for next Wed's. The first from 2 days ago then the latest. 

gfsnh-0-144.png

gfsnh-0-96.png

Agreed.

Just hope euro show something similar tomorrow

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed.

Just hope euro show something similar tomorrow

Yep, we really need it to jump on board now. Its been a real meanie this season. 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Such a shame the EPS aren't playing ball because the GEFS are steadily improving run by run in the medium term, not a stonker suite yet but a good few stonkers in the suite.

image.thumb.png.69b2ac6c27280044158544a072a26c9b.pngimage.thumb.png.1a3605e4fb15b2c3aafc51aa2ad9c097.png

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FetchCB Aficionado

FetchCB

Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
Posted
6 hours ago, Cambrian said:

At 174h is just about the peak of the high pressure for our millibar-drenched isles in the reliable / semi-reliable on the 12z GFS, 1040mb+ somewhere in the Irish midlands. 

E26928AB-C2F7-479E-909A-40EE04468107.thumb.png.33f0b006698f964cb7ff17e6a12ce268.png

Let’s zoom in dudes and get really high…..wow…..1042mb

D291D46D-0ACA-45AB-A006-797F407532AB.thumb.png.c7fd49b2585ace05a0543fc115827197.png

Though the record appears safe, a very similar place to where we were two years ago to the week, with similar wider factors at play. This is a great little article written by Dr Stephen Burt from the University of Reading. 

winter-3198466_640.jpg

cropped-university-180x180.png London just broke a 300-year-old weather record – but you probably didn’t even notice it - Connecting Research

RESEARCH.READING.AC.UK
A London weather record was broken recently making for an exceptionally crisp, clear winter day – but you probably didn’t notice it, explains Professor Stephen Burt in a recent post...Read...

Even more great because even I could understand it. 

Nippy enough later that night. Pleasant chilly days. 

4471E2EA-3E25-412C-B836-A09BCF1A3B73.thumb.png.73c690e42930eb9a7ae129d03def4830.png 22BC79B4-A28C-4C4F-92C3-1E2ED138C307.thumb.png.c3b963af74714253569d989aa77b922c.png 577F63C3-2EB4-4DD0-877B-5DFA4DA0861D.jpeg.e8425692157be12a3dd268997ad39ec1.jpeg
 

Yeah man. 

Or is it safe? 

Admit this is two weeks away. This would be a record 

 

airpressure.png

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted

Heights showing to the far ne again .

1539963235_h500slp(4).thumb.png.ef03cbba3eec57d329de5bb6b9a41553.png

Nothing comes of it but is still an intermittant signal. Crazy run, then showing possible record high after ...

901822558_h500slp(5).thumb.png.dc30fbd5e07ac991a011c7b801939e70.png

 

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Summer Snow Enthusiast

Summer Snow

Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow? Thunder
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
Posted

Some mega blocked cold ensemble members  in this 18z suite... . This number 4 is the pick of the bunch but quite a number of cold runs in there .....Best set in a while and some showing favourable changes in the 192-240 timeframe .... hopefully we see further upgrades tomorrow 

GFSP04EU18_306_1.png

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Such a shame the EPS aren't playing ball because the GEFS are steadily improving run by run in the medium term, not a stonker suite yet but a good few stonkers in the suite.

image.thumb.png.69b2ac6c27280044158544a072a26c9b.pngimage.thumb.png.1a3605e4fb15b2c3aafc51aa2ad9c097.png

Indeed, a cold spell has to start somewhere, quite an anomaly at 384.

GFS is good at picking out changes at range, but has been picking up phantom signals this winter sadly.

gensnh-31-5-384.png

gfs-london-gb-515n-0e (23).png

Edited by Battleground Snow
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
38 minutes ago, mulzy said:

ECM 0z more similar to the GEM than the GFS sadly.

GFS is trash.

For the most technologically advanced country in the world the US needs to upgrade its weather model.

FWIW EC looks set to bring a PM shot , GEM on the other hand is awful.

ECM0-240.thumb.gif.61386b562bdf4e58047bbceb717458f0.gif

image.thumb.png.fe31c28b250dafcd062aa2cb3869d9a1.png

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted

Extended mean eps nothing like the extended mean gefs.  Extedned eps suggesting a +AO/+NAO pattern, while the gefs flapping around with some kind of half decent solution for NW Europe.

Any bets on which solution will be nearer the mark?

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Extended mean eps nothing like the extended mean gefs.  Extedned eps suggesting a +AO/+NAO pattern, while the gefs flapping around with some kind of half decent solution for NW Europe.

Any bets on which solution will be nearer the mark?

Evens on ECM and about 10-1 for GFS

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Evens on ECM and about 10-1 for GFS

10s?

Very generous imo.

I'm sure we'd both be delighted to be wrong, I can't think of anything worse than wind and rain to usher in Feb.I do hope ( against my expectation) GFS is right.

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Hopeless outlook for rest of January if your looking for cold and snow,gfs trying to bring in something colder in fl but hardly worth even thinking about.

A big pattern change needed for Febuary this Month has gone unless a miracle happens.

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted (edited)

The current cold front moving down from the north has produced not one of drop of rain here. A very weak feature, its moving into high pressure and its moisture squeezed. If this was summer quite normal but mid January.. not so..

Edited by damianslaw
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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

GFS 0z well it shows high pressure going nowhere right through to end of the month.. it seems to be spinning around on itself tries to build to Greenland but keeps being shunted back south into Atlantic. 

End result often fine weather mostly dry temps average or a little above, some frost and fog in clear breaks and some patchy rain or drizzle from weak fronts mostly in the north. 

This is turning into an exceptionally quiet January. Just one named storm so far this season and that was in November!

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Summer Snow Enthusiast

Summer Snow

Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow? Thunder
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
Posted
1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

 

This is turning into an exceptionally quiet January. Just one named storm so far this season and that was in November!

Yes and with November being an Autumn month it means that amazingly we have had no named storms this winter, which we are now half way through.....

With charts like this shown for the foreseeable, it looks like that won't change anytime soon.....

 

GFSOPEU06_90_1.png

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RabbitEars Enthusiast

RabbitEars

Posted
  • Location: Douglas Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summer days with calm seas to swim in, cold frosty snowy winters
  • Location: Douglas Isle of Man
Posted
1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

...

This is turning into an exceptionally quiet January. Just one named storm so far this season and that was in November!

Two named storms... Arwen 25 November 2021 and Barra which on 7 December caused a lot of storm surge damage here in the Isle of Man.  But yes I am surprised at the lack of mobile weather... I do like it calm and mild enough to get out and about... more sun would be nice... but the models look a bit cloudy! 

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Jeremy Shockey Rising Star

Jeremy Shockey

Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
Posted

gfs-1-102.png?6GFS6z  for Thur20th

GFS 06z continues to " tease " the extreme East coast of the UK as the UKMO 0z did earlier too.

Other than that ......more of the same !

 

UW96-21.GIF?16-06UKMO 0z for Thur 20th

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Summer Snow Enthusiast

Summer Snow

Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow? Thunder
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
Posted
4 minutes ago, MJB said:

image.thumb.png.df676b219dde6c960e3f76d071358101.png

Promising 

Yes very amplified and continuing to show two fingers to ECM and GEM which both want the high pressure to collapse at this stage with Atlantic taking over....

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

The ecm op and suite is the stuff of nightmares for winter lovers it has to be said. I was expecting/hoping for much better this morning but its gone in the opposite direction unfortunately. 

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