Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[MJB]

Deepest FI 

[minus10]

Yet another easterly being touted by gfs6z ?

Please...not another phantom one.....

Edited January 15, 2022 by minus10

[E17boy]

Our high pressures is waiting over us we just need some help to push it north. Weather gods we need you 

[Scandinavian High.]

Some very cold air comes across SE england.

[Tim Bland]

Both 00z and 06z have an easterly of sorts but the euro low is now a common theme 

[minus10]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Both 00z and 06z have an easterly of sorts but the euro low is now a common theme 

Strong ne / siberian high being signalled on these...new trend or another one ( or two) off ?

[Tim Bland]

Wish it went a few more frames! Lots of cold to tap into !…

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Wish it went a few more frames! Lots of cold to tap into !…

but it was cold quite a bit before that time anyway tim..

[Methuselah]

To be or not to be?      

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

but it was cold quite a bit before that time anyway tim..

Agreed.. after we get rid of the next couple of day average tad above clagginess it looks chilly then cold to very cold to epic freeze on the 06z

 

[Tim Bland]

Yes cold and dry for 7-10 days is pretty much nailed. It’s what happens after that interests me though ! 

[PiscesStar]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Yes cold and dry for 7-10 days is pretty much nailed. It’s what happens after that interests me though ! 

I think that pretty much echoes the thoughts of most on here atm mate. Trends looking up and the high to move as you say.... Cold air in situ all aids our chances later Jan into early Feb...  

[minus10]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Yes cold and dry for 7-10 days is pretty much nailed. It’s what happens after that interests me though ! 

Yes. Be interesting to see if the signal for strong ne high persists in some form or another..

[Cleeve Hill]

Still -2 outside and frosty. We’ve had this most of the week. Proper winter weather and the outlook shows more of the same. Should be interesting mid winter model watching. Bring it on.  

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs 6z reminds me of the 70s as a kid

Mild rain then cold frosty for a week or 2 and dry then bang wake up with thick snow

[Cleeve Hill]

1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Gfs 6z reminds me of the 70s as a kid

Mild rain then cold frosty for a week or 2 and dry then bang wake up with thick snow

Yes, definitely has a feel of winter’s past. 

[January Snowstorm]

We all need hope in our lives and from a weather point of view we've had a very tough few weeks. Do I sense though just a small ray this morning that maybe just maybe the models are toying with the idea of something much colder by month end. Worth noting the end of January is when the continent is likely at its coldest!! It isn't too late for a deep freeze, so let's keep hoping!!

 

Also worth remembering that there's been a clear trend the last decade for our deepest cold to come in February 

Edited January 15, 2022 by January Snowstorm

[Chesil View]

More fi teases from the gfs 06z

A long fetch easterly then a cross polar flow. ❄ ? ?  

 

[MJB]

Control looking promising 

[winterof79]

+A0 starting to lose traction and i am getting a feeling that we are going to tap into some colder air from the east come month end.

[sebastiaan1973]

Incredible. Never seen such a big area of positive anomaly in this area.  

[jimben]

7 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Incredible. Never seen such a big area of positive anomaly in this area.  

Probably due to a volcanic explosion

[Singularity]

We certainly look to be under more of an East Pacific focused La Niña influence this month, with the +NAO regime heavily distorted. If it wasn’t for the unusual polar vortex intensity - which may have some tie in to climate change via increased blocking of troposphere-stratosphere radiative energy exchange - I expect we’d be experiencing a -NAO by now, fitting the EP Nina historical composite for Jan-Feb.

You see, while the AO analysis shows a ‘disconnect’, that’s mainly with respect to the Arctic region. There’s still a considerable imprint onto the troposphere, divided between Canada and Scandinavia.

If the possible wave-1 warming materialises and weakens the polar vortex while the tropics continue to drive big mid-Atlantic ridges, a negative NAO will become more feasible.

The MJO casts a pall or uncertainty over this though - we can’t be sure whether it will align more with a La Niña base state by late Jan, or begin another trip from Indonesia across the Pacific. Both outcomes are on the table at the moment, though modelling seems keener on the latter - which would support a continued EP Nina influence.

[Eagle Eye]

Haven't followed the models for a while, 9 days to go till my bday and seemingly anything could happen so fingers crossed (although it'll be a miracle if it does come off)

[winterof79]

GFS has a persistent signal for siberian heights to start influencing from 192z

Here are the charts starting with yesterday's 12z through to 06z today