Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,still the theme continues with high pressure dry and probably colder as UKMO shows further retrogression 

To the west/ northwest next week encouraging to see,beginning to feel confident of some pleasant surprises in

the not so distant future.

[TSNWK]

43 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes ukmo were yesterday's thanks- and have deleted that post.Mind you today's from the UKMO look pretty decent.

Try again

Signs of some colder air coming south later next week.GFS looks like a glancing blow but the UKMO shows a more direct feed of cold across much of the UK.

Maybe a few wintry flurries down the east coast.Nothing to out of the ordinary but night frosts should become more widespread. 

Pleasantly surprised with the uppers on ukm 120 and ukm 144 will be a cold couple  of days and maybe a flurry of two .scoots of east at 168.. but its  defo a swing towards to cold on today's ukm

Edited January 14, 2022 by TSNWK

[Staffmoorlands]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Pleasantly surprised with the uppers on ukm 120 and ukm 144 will be a cold couple  of days and maybe a flurry of two .scoots of east at 168.. but its  defo a swing towards to cold on today's ukm

Blink and you miss it. Can’t see any cold reaching the south

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yup we're eating away at winter now. Could easily be 1st of March and still nothing. I can see it happening.

Not at Buxton, just need some sort of toppler, like modeled on last few GFS runs, if any topplers come off, Buxton guaranteed snow

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Blink and you miss it. Can’t see any cold reaching the south

Well at least it's something to blink and see briefly.. your chart is 168 where as I say cold air is scooting off.. for balance we have the 120 and 144 posted..... Let's try and work with it nd see if we can get a further  step in coldies favour overnight ukm prefabably ECM in a tick

[Ali1977]

Just one of these will do please, surely it’s not a big ask

[TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Just one of these will do please, surely it’s not a big ask

If only Ali....

[Jeremy Shockey]

UKMO 12z @ t144

 

GFS 12z @t144

 

ECM 12z @t144

The " big 3 " all broadly similar at t144.  May give us a brief Northerly of sorts and quite cold down the East side on the UK

[Ali1977]

Just now, Jeremy Shockey said:

UKMO 12z @ t144

 

GFS 12z @t144

 

ECM 12z @t144

The " big 3 " all broadly similar at t144.  May give us a brief Northerly of sorts and quite cold down the East side on the UK

It’s quite incredible after the last few weeks that they agree so closely at day 6!! 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

It’s quite incredible after the last few weeks that they agree so closely at day 6!! 

Now can all back west a smidge... Can someone compare last night's 144 with today's 120 on ECM please.. be interesting to if the was any correction west and if so then why not again with tonight's 144

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Now can all back west a smidge... Can someone compare last night's 144 with today's 120 on ECM please.. be interesting to if the was any correction west and if so then why not again with tonight's 144

Last nights 168 compared to tonight's 144.

[Dancerwithwings]

20 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

GFS 18z Colder uppers further West, I know it’s just short of a weeks time..but it’s noticeable/movements on this run,  heights West & North.... this HP!!! where is it going W/N/E/S...

12z 

18z

Looking the latest models, the 18z GFS was hinting at this yesterday regarding the HP shifting west, and today the others are showing that as well, but yes along way to go as yet....positives though

[TSNWK]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Last nights 168 compared to tonight's 144.

Thank you . Defo a nice shift west of the 0 850 line for next Thursday.. 168 last night had Southampton to to aryshire. Tonights 144 has Scilly isles up through Ireland's and Western isles.. nice jump west.. same again and we might have a little short term fun... For balance this morning's 10 day teeze with a gap in the vortex has gone 

Edited January 14, 2022 by TSNWK

[Kasim Awan]

58 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Not at Buxton, just need some sort of toppler, like modeled on last few GFS runs, if any topplers come off, Buxton guaranteed snow

Not at all the case Buxton can get nothing from a northerly toppler it's quite common.

[johncam]

ECM is a snorefest from start to finish , apart from a 24/36 colder blip , now wishing it was spring where no doubt we will get great synoptics but sun is too strong by then

Edited January 14, 2022 by johncam

[blizzard81]

Late January continues to look interesting to me. I'm not fussed about the lack of interest thus far from the ecm ext ens. These tend to flip at the drop of a hat. 

[Staffmoorlands]

Good consistency with all the models again tonight. Looks like high pressure will be sticking around for sometime and the Met Office  are hinting that February may also be dry too!

Edited January 14, 2022 by Staffmoorlands

[stodge]

Evening all

The story continues to be relentlessly anticyclonic - if only it were July or August, some might say. I love this weather type - crisp, clear days, great for walking.

I digress (sorry, Mods).

Positioning and orientation always the key along with whether we can catch a break with the energy in the northern arm of the jet. Both GFS OP and Control offer a tease towards the end of the month and I'll take -12 850s all day every day in January (and even positive 850s under an inversion). 

The rinse and repeat model of the HP declining SE and a new cell of HP coming off the mid-Atlantic toppling as there's too much energy further north to promote decent amplification,

I suspect this will be one of the driest Januaries for some time if the pattern holds.

[blizzard81]

This morning's ecm ens for debilt. I expect the mean line will be much lower between that Jan 21st to 23rd dip on tonight's update. After that, a slight relaxing but its beyond this where the models are nowhere near as certain as they appear to be. 

[Staffmoorlands]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

This morning's ecm ens for debilt. I expect the mean line will be much lower between that Jan 21st to 23rd dip on tonight's update. After that, a slight relaxing but its beyond this where the models are nowhere near as certain as they appear to be. 

Don’t get much worse than that in winter! 

[Lukesluckybunch]

it must be said the ECM ens are pretty terrible!

[minus10]

Its like hp is attracted to the uk like a magnet. When you think that we are a comparative small area compared with Europe and the Atlantic and yet the hp finds its way here...

 

Still i suppose it could be worse if it was anchored to the south...

[Gregulator]

I think everyone's got model fatigue........

 

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Gregulator said:

I think everyone's got model fatigue........

 

Its understandable. 

[Dancerwithwings]

4 minutes ago, Gregulator said:

I think everyone's got model fatigue........

 

Never....bring on the 18z...pub run