Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Kentspur]

2 hours ago, minus10 said:

Well thats incredible as here in hertfordshire so far the temp has barely been below zero for last 2 nights with no fog and very pleasant days of 9 degrees! Tonite 9pm temp is still 3 degrees, no frost, just dew. I think we are just going to have to get used to this for....some time..

I used to work in Welwyn and lived in Hatfield (studying at Uni in Herts) when I first joined this forum there were some memorable times had there, one thing I remember about the weather there is it was always 1.5-2c colder there than it is here, often id speak to my family and friends back here and thered be no frost or snow when Hatfield and Welwyn had either. I remember the channel low event in Hatfield Feb 06 I think it was and there was a good 6inches of snow back home only a couple of inches which melted very quickly whereas in Herts it stuck around a couple of days atleast some of it. Here my car thermometer read 11c earlier so 9c is about right for there I guess. Not frosty here yet either though it was this morning and should be by the morning given the forecast temps

Edited January 13, 2022 by Kentspur

[minus10]

16 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I used to work in Welwyn and lived in Hatfield (studying at Uni in Herts) when I first joined this forum there were some memorable times had there, one thing I remember about the weather there is it was always 1.5-2c colder there than it is here, often id speak to my family and friends back here and thered be no frost or snow when Hatfield and Welwyn had either. I remember the channel low event in Hatfield Feb 06 I think it was and there was a good 6inches of snow back home only a couple of inches which melted very quickly whereas in Herts it stuck around a couple of days atleast some of it. Here my car thermometer read 11c earlier so 9c is about right for there I guess. Not frosty here yet either though it was this morning and should be by the morning given the forecast temps

Yes we have had some cold nights here previously getting down to minus eight on occasions. However recently we seem to have struggled...so far this winter havent gone below minus 2 and this recent couple of days although gin clear skies the temp doesnt go down in the evening like you would expect . Higher 850s i suppose but would have thought the longer nights would still have had an effect. Maybe this will help..

....well at least it looks slightly better 

[Peter H]

On 10/01/2022 at 10:15, northwestsnow said:

I'm not familiar with Ireland North or South sadly but I guess freezing fog could be responsible - is freezing fog denser near water?

The so called “Lough Neagh basin” is notorious for dense and persistent fog, freezing or otherwise i.e. the areas surrounding Lough Neagh. 

Edited January 14, 2022 by Peter H

[PiscesStar]

Morning All... Its a horror show with the briefest of northerly incursions shown.. Couldnt be worse and a massive watering down of anything remotely wintry in my view... Textbook too much energy in the northern arm of the jet which has persisted along with any northern heights squashed backdown in the ebb and flow of the run.. The high sits like a big elephant bang smack on top of the UK. Move damn it...

[northwestsnow]

GFS 00Z =

Victory

[Updated_Weather]

On 14/01/2022 at 05:07, northwestsnow said:

GFS 00Z =

Victory

Very different from 18z in FI..

[jvenge]

GEFS mean from the 0z keeps with a familiar theme from the reliable timeframe to the unreliable. The resulting being nothing unseasonably mild, but also nothing of interest to cold weather fans. Relatively dry since the jet stream goes north of the UK, but some light rain at times.

 

[That ECM]

T300 mean has the high to our west. Attached the good and the bad. 

[mulzy]

ECM Day 10 interesting in the way the Arctic high forms.  Can it nose into Greenland and suck the heights out of Europe?  Big ask but possible.  I know we are scrapping the barrel but it is what it is!

Edited January 14, 2022 by mulzy

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

ECM Day 10 interesting in the way the Arctic high forms.  Can it nose into Greenland and suck the heights out of Europe?  Big ask but possible.  I know we are scrapping the barrel but it is what it is!

tricky call ...

[Kasim Awan]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

tricky call ...

Scuppered by heights to our south. Jan looks a write off imo.

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Scuppered by heights to our south. Jan looks a write off imo.

It's possible sure.

Hopefully  we will see a relaxation of this god forsaken vortex as we head towards Feb but im not ready to throw in the towel for Jan just yet.

We could do with something in the ext eps soon if Jan is going to be salvaged.

So far, a really poor winter,  few snow days (2) and a few Frosts.. 

 

Edited January 14, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Kasim Awan]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It's possible sure.

Hopefully  we will see a relaxation of this god forsaken vortex as we head towards Feb but im not ready to throw in the towel for Jan just yet.

We could do with something in the ext eps soon if Jan is going to be salvaged.

So far, a really poor winter,  few snow days (2) and a few Frosts.. 

 

Looks like Jan 2022 could go down with Jan 2020 as the least snowiest Jans on record. I understand the optimism for the rest of winter, for me that doesn't stretch past a few toppper cold snaps in February which I think may be the coldest winter month of the season as la nina weakens, eqbo advances and seasonal vortex weakening.

Edited January 14, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[blizzard81]

Something I have noticed over the last 15 years or so is that the last few days of January tends to be the time we get a snow fall that actually lays. There have been quite a few ocassions. Nothing special and maybe only laying for a day but better than nothing. The GFS ens are persistently showing a cold final week of Jan and the ecm op at day 10 is no slouch either. 

[Staffmoorlands]

Still looking quite mild for Monday and Tuesday next week. Double figures for some areas

 

[Chesil View]

Nothing of any great interest snow wise showing on the ops. As ever gfs has some interesting ensemble runs later on but then it alway does and maybe 1 in a 100 might prove to be the one.

In my nick of the woods winters with no substantial or even settling snowfall are a common occurrence.

And I can recall years like 89 or the late 90's when nothing fell  at all in my locale until April.

So my mantra tends to be hang in there because it can often come late.

Having said that a Dec 2010, Jan 2013 or late feb/ March 2018 are an absolute joy when the models give a good handle on things and we count  down to a snowy spectacle.

Keep the faith snow fans.

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,ECM / UKMO showing latter part of next week colder 850 hpa that will bring temperatures 

down again after a less cold period with perhaps double figures for a few.Still high pressure dominated 

very unusual January central England temperatures for the month could return to average possibly just 

below.

[warrenb]

41 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Still looking quite mild for Monday and Tuesday next week. Double figures for some areas

 

Depends where you are, upper temps are the same here at the moment but it is -2c with a thick frost. Will probably get up to 6 or 7c today. The joys of living in a valley on the lee side of a hill to the south and the sun barely getting above said hill.

[minus10]

7 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Depends where you are, upper temps are the same here at the moment but it is -2c with a thick frost. Will probably get up to 6 or 7c today. The joys of living in a valley on the lee side of a hill to the south and the sun barely getting above said hill.

Yes topography and location must make a difference . Third night here where temp barely got down below zero despite clear skies. Lovely sunny days ....wouldnt mind if we had a decent frost....in January!! .Also where is the forecast fog??

More of the same from the charts, turning cloudier for a while i think...

[Staffmoorlands]

18 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Depends where you are, upper temps are the same here at the moment but it is -2c with a thick frost. Will probably get up to 6 or 7c today. The joys of living in a valley on the lee side of a hill to the south and the sun barely getting above said hill.

A lot more cloud and drizzle from Saturday so no frosts. Turning cooler later next week

[mushymanrob]

11 hours ago, Nick F said:

Now, if only we could shrink the mammouth high to half its size and get cold air from the east underneath ... 

............. or shunt it northwards into greenland?.

[damianslaw]

7 hours ago, PiscesStar said:

Morning All... Its a horror show with the briefest of northerly incursions shown.. Couldnt be worse and a massive watering down of anything remotely wintry in my view... Textbook too much energy in the northern arm of the jet which has persisted along with any northern heights squashed backdown in the ebb and flow of the run.. The high sits like a big elephant bang smack on top of the UK. Move damn it...

Depends on what you class as a horror show.. from.a snow chance perspective yes it isn't great for the foreseeable.. but from a wind rain and mild perspective it's a far sight better than many January fayre..m no raging jet sending barrels of stormy weather and flooding.. indeed it's a result in this respect. 

[TSNWK]

8 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

............. or shunt it northwards into greenland?.

Anything on the day 10 - 14 500s to suggest that @mushymanrob

[TSNWK]

Be interesting to see if this gfs follows up on what this mornings ecm was hinting at day 10.. gap in vortex over Greenland and heights climbing up

[TSNWK]

14 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Be interesting to see if this gfs follows up on what this mornings ecm was hinting at day 10.. gap in vortex over Greenland and heights climbing up

Day 11 attempt failed maybe this one will work...