Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[KyleHenry]

5 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Oh dear......

Catch 22, you want 1040 mb High pressure so that when a gap opens during each TPV evolution. Means stronger WAA and more successful high latitude blocking. One of these evolutions will drop kindly eventually. February being the next window of opportunity.

[Don]

Just now, BelgianBlizzard said:

We need MATTWOLVES to lift up the spirits ...where are you man? We need an optimistic view on these charts!

He is possibly despairing now too!

[feb1991blizzard]

lift off winter 2022!!

[Ali1977]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

lift off winter 2022!!

Oh yes, much more interest this morning  

[Chesil View]

More plus 300hrs teasing from the gfs. Same old same old really. This time an easterly of sorts..

[carinthian]

A bit of a short , sharp, shock icy blast for Eastern Britain on Thursday. Even possible snow flurries East Yorks into East Anglia on this run from GFS.

 c

[That ECM]

ECM having a Saturday morning sleep in?  Left a note saying move this around a bit. I see met going for high to be around until second week of feb.

[Captain Shortwave]

Good agreement for a glancing blow of cold air from the north followed by high pressure building right over the top. Surface temperatures should remain cold, especially on the ECM day where very little in the way of mild air will infiltrate at the surface. There should be plenty of sunshine away from areas prone to stubborn fog patches.

 

The pattern probably delivers a few snow showers down the east coast during the middle of the week, otherwise the dry spell continues.

Edited January 15, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Chesil View]

10 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Good agreement for a glancing blow of cold air from the north followed by high pressure building right over the top. Surface temperatures should remain cold, especially on the ECM day where very little in the way of mild air will infiltrate at the surface. There should be plenty of sunshine away from areas prone to stubborn fog patches.

That's yesterday's 12z ecm.

Mind you today's when it comes out will probably look exactly the same

[IDO]

Solid support from the models for the next 10-days, at least, for HP close to the UK. It fidgets around and bells, so that we may get a variety on that theme. The GEFS goes out till the end of Jan and the mean continues with UK HP:

D8-16> 

The core of the mean high does sink SE enough to give some support to the GFS op signal that we could see a retrogression of the trough to our east. But straw clutching as at this range the mean may still end up UK-dominant as we close out January. The D16 mean has been steadfast in the NH profile for days:

D16 mean>  London 2m temps> 

UK, Pacific and Russian/Siberian highs, directing the tPV to our NW. It is Groundhog Day and a rut showing no sign of escaping from with the lack of tropical forcing. Average sums it up temp-wise for my locale, and dry. Need a jolt to the status quo, and we know with weather something could pop up out of the gloom, but the models and pros support UK high so that is that for the foreseeable.

[mulzy]

5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

That's yesterday's 12z ecm.

Mind you today's when it comes out will probably look exactly the same

ECM 0Z is a high pressure borefest.  The tease at day 10 is largely gone.

[Chesil View]

9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

ECM 0Z is a high pressure borefest.  The tease at day 10 is largely gone.

Surprise surprise.

[Kasim Awan]

Not sure these charts will deliver snow showers down the east coast. Looks dry to me.

[Duane S.]

I’m not sure where any forcing is right now to pull our high westwards. 
 

Personally, I’d happily take these charts in January. It we aren’t going to get snow chances then let it be dry. And it’s always less steps to a snowy outlook from this sort of set up than from a raging zonal one.

[northwestsnow]

EC det looks chilly and dry.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if some locations register -3/-4 next week...

And that to me is a wintry outlook,  sadly snow looks as far away as ever ..

[mulzy]

FWIW, the mean ext eps showing a +AO/+NAO setup.  Still high heights at the mid latitudes but this is sinking further south.  Sorry to be bearer of bad news but this is bleak for any deep cold for the UK.

[Captain Shortwave]

50 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

That's yesterday's 12z ecm.

Mind you today's when it comes out will probably look exactly the same

The output has been so similar over the past couple of days that I didn’t even notice

Well here are the 850s for midday Thursday on the GFS/GEM

 

 

cold enough in the east, especially the GFS for a brief window for some showers and for those to fall as snow.

Edited January 15, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

FWIW, the mean ext eps showing a +AO/+NAO setup.  Still high heights at the mid latitudes but this is sinking further south.  Sorry to be bearer of bad news but this is bleak for any deep cold for the UK.

If the eps are correct January is a write off for High Latitude blocking.

Sounds like the crappy clusters have grown over the last day or two,typically.

Truth be told I'm fast losing the will with this winter  and I use the word ' winter ' very reluctantly because the only decent snow event here came at the end of November- over 6 weeks ago.

It's easy to come on here and moan , I guess as ive got older I've learned to reign in emotions but don't let that hide the disappointment.

I think I joined weather forums in 2002, truth is the chase in Winter is turning into a wild goose chase 90% of the time - its kind of like supporting a really crap football team at this point , losing every week eventually saps the enthusiasm.

I really hope we get something decent in Feb but with the seasonal just pointing to more +NAO dross i think I've worn this tea shirt before a number of times infact.

I suppose the outlook is dry and chilly ,which beats wind and rain,synoptically though its plain awful..

[Johnp]

5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The output has been so similar over the past couple of days that I didn’t even notice

Well here are the 850s for midday Thursday on the GFS/GEM

 

 

cold enough in the east, especially the GFS for a brief window for some showers and for those to fall as snow.

Cold enough, but I doubt there’d be any precipitation. 

[Kasim Awan]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If the eps are correct January is a write off for High Latitude blocking.

Sounds like the crappy clusters have grown over the last day or two,typically.

Truth be told I'm fast losing the will with this winter  and I use the word ' winter ' very reluctantly because the only decent snow event here came at the end of November- over 6 weeks ago.

It's easy to come on here and moan , I guess as ive got older I've learned to reign in emotions but don't let that hide the disappointment.

I think I joined weather forums in 2002, truth is the chase in Winter is turning into a wild goose chase 90% of the time - its kind of like supporting a really crap football team at this point , losing every week eventually saps the enthusiasm.

I really hope we get something decent in Feb but with the seasonal just pointing to more +NAO dross i think I've worn this tea shirt before a number of times infact.

I suppose the outlook is dry and chilly ,which beats wind and rain,synoptically though its plain awful..

Mirrors my stance atm to a T. The saving grace is that last winter nicely showed that decent winter weather is still possible. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

any news on ECM this morning,doesn't appear to be out yet..

[joggs]

27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If the eps are correct January is a write off for High Latitude blocking.

Sounds like the crappy clusters have grown over the last day or two,typically.

Truth be told I'm fast losing the will with this winter  and I use the word ' winter ' very reluctantly because the only decent snow event here came at the end of November- over 6 weeks ago.

It's easy to come on here and moan , I guess as ive got older I've learned to reign in emotions but don't let that hide the disappointment.

I think I joined weather forums in 2002, truth is the chase in Winter is turning into a wild goose chase 90% of the time - its kind of like supporting a really crap football team at this point , losing every week eventually saps the enthusiasm.

I really hope we get something decent in Feb but with the seasonal just pointing to more +NAO dross i think I've worn this tea shirt before a number of times infact.

I suppose the outlook is dry and chilly ,which beats wind and rain,synoptically though its plain awful..

I'm a Bradford fan so this winter is not too bad lol

[damianslaw]

Was a dry blocked Jan foreseen by any long range models?

[mountain shadow]

17 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

any news on ECM this morning,doesn't appear to be out yet..

Look at the t+0 chart and you'll not be far off the t+240 chart.

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Look at the t+0 chart and you'll not be far off the t+240 chart.

Ok but the this mornings 0z isn't out yet right...