Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Rocheydub]

For those new to the chase for cold on the MOD thread. Now is a good time to take a break from the models. Step away for a couple of days, go outside, enjoy the crisp evenings and in a few days time, come back and at least the monotony of the current output will have changed (hopefully). I do this every year and find it quite refreshing.

[TSNWK]

I'm in for the 18z.. was nicely surprised with the 150 westward shunt of cold middle of next week by ECM .. another similar shunt and bingo... I mean if it can move cold east by hundreds if miles at similar range over a couple of runs then why not west?

Edited January 14, 2022 by TSNWK

[suxer]

1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

For those new to the chase for cold on the MOD thread. Now is a good time to take a break from the models. Step away for a couple of days, go outside, enjoy the crisp evenings and in a few days time, come back and at least the monotony of the current output will have changed (hopefully). I do this every year and find it quite refreshing.

Don't kid yourself you'll look at every model suite 

[MP-R]

47 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Its like hp is attracted to the uk like a magnet. When you think that we are a comparative small area compared with Europe and the Atlantic and yet the hp finds its way here...

 

Still i suppose it could be worse if it was anchored to the south...

No doubt we will be having the same conversation about low pressure come July!

[SqueakheartLW]

We can hope for a change to this ensemble mean SLP chart on the 18z. Don't have much hope for any significant change to the full predicted 384 hours of endless high pressure predicted by the GFS

Yesterday's 18z means at 168h (Thu 20th Jan 18:00), 240h (Sun 23rd Jan 18:00) and 384h (Sat 29th Jan 18:00)

Today's 00z means at 162h (Thu 20th Jan 18:00), 234h (Sun 23rd Jan 18:00) and 378h (Sat 29th Jan 18:00)

Today's 06z means at 156h (Thu 20th Jan 18:00), 228h (Sun 23rd Jan 18:00) and 372h (Sat 29th Jan 18:00)

Today's 12z means at 150h (Thu 20th Jan 18:00), 222h (Sun 23rd Jan 18:00) and 366h (Sat 29th Jan 18:00)

Not particularly interesting to see very little happening basically for the rest of the month if these means are correct

Edited January 14, 2022 by SqueakheartLW

[fromey]

Just seen this in twitter land, something to keep an eye on.

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, fromey said:

Just seen this in twitter land, something to keep an eye on.

Just backs up the models showing a persistent ridge in our vicinity with any cold plunged south into East Europe. 

[TSNWK]

10 minutes ago, fromey said:

Just seen this in twitter land, something to keep an eye on.

If you're in Greece...

[snowbob]

Well the title is hunt for cold

i have had to spend ages defrosting the car the last three mornings and everything outside is frozen and frosty, already again.

we have cold we just don’t have the snow lol

cmon 18z give us something that most want, SNOW 

the cold is actually here. Gas is pumping away every night. It’s deffo cold here

Edited January 14, 2022 by snowbob

[Battleground Snow]

10 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

If you're in Greece...

500 mile adjustment and we are in the mix at t144.

[damianslaw]

What drivers do we need in place to kill this high pressure is the question.. it's rare to see highs last upwards of 2 weeks but this one just looks like spinning around and around.. highly unusual for mid Jan normally see them sink south go far west or on occasion north or north east.. but not just sit around limped to the UK..

If it was Spring I would be less surprised but its January where is the Atlantic..  why is the jet staying clear of us.. odd because we have significant cold spilling out of USA which should be fuelling it. I'm puzzled.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

500 mile adjustment and we are in the mix at t144.

Agreed.  As per ECM.. gave us 150 between 168 yesterday and 144 today for next Thursday... Got to be within envelope

 

[Don]

8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

The current spell is very non-descript but with a nudge NW this would be an excellent cold frosty period, low single digit maxima and regular sub freezing nights.. alas weve been stuck in the 4-7 degree range throughout.. not cold but not mild just very forgettable. 

Yes, unfortunately high pressure this winter has been reluctant to nudge north west and I fear that when it does eventually move, it will be south west, or even worse south east!

[Ali1977]

The ICON trough was a little closer at T120 with an adjustment west, the GFS is a little more amplified at T84 around Newfoundland but not sure that’ll help more of the U.K. tap into the cold later next week - can’t see any snow other than possible light flurries in the far NE of Scotland , but it may help with sharper frosts !! 

Edited January 14, 2022 by Ali1977

[Don]

Maybe this thread should be re-named 'Dreaming of snow', coz that's as close as we will get for the foreseeable, unless you take a trip overseas.....

[damianslaw]

17 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, unfortunately high pressure this winter has been reluctant to nudge north west and I fear that when it does eventually move, it will be south west, or even worse south east!

Mmm there is quite a cold dig of uppers forecast to move south into east Europe.. more likely will head SW than SE but this could be the trigger to a colder NW flow with a temporary westerly flow inbetween. 

[TSNWK]

Disappointment as cold has backed east this run at 144.. night gang…

[Don]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Disappointment as cold has backed east this run at 144.. night gang…

Disappointing run during winter 2021/22, never!   We've only got another two months of this! 

[feb1991blizzard]

Not sure what people were expecting!!!   -   The ensembles D11-15 are the only interest period of this suite for me. Take it no joy on the EPS ext.

 

[Dancerwithwings]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

Maybe this thread should be re-named 'Dreaming of snow', coz that's as close as we will get for the foreseeable, unless you take a trip overseas.....

Don you should know better, without the chase for what them models that shows us 4 times a day...that is the interest on every run in Winter is happy times for us cold lovers that keep us alive....Whether it brings us a negative or a positive outlook.....that’s what this thread is all about...my glass is always full

[Dancerwithwings]

12 minutes ago, Georgina said:

There’s more chance of snow at Easter than Christmas still plenty of time

And right you are, some of us had snow in November, and GEM was spot on 7days prior in predicting it

[Summer Snow]

Been watching GFS building high pressure to far northeast over last few runs.....if this becomes a growing trend,it could help push the pattern further West in time perhaps? 

[minus10]

Oh dear......

[Don]

3 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Oh dear......

Even the pub run can't deliver and long range models look equally as uninspiring!

[BelgianBlizzard]

We need MATTWOLVES to lift up the spirits ...where are you man? We need an optimistic view on these charts!