Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Battleground Snow]

Low height anomalies in Europe  starting to gain traction around Italy in the gefs past 300 hours.

Something to watch on future runs

[Starsail]

1 hour ago, Scandinavian High. said:

We don’t hit jackpot but trends looking good high to push north east.

Insider knowledge SH!!? ☺

More patience required I feel but ultimately that seems like a reasonable direction of travel. 

JH posting a page or so back of little change in the upper air pattern in the next 8-10 days. This is as good a sign as we will get of Little change short term. BFTP and others have suggested late Jan as the time of interest for some time now. That seems reasonable.

The Beast from the East ran 24Feb- 4 Mar 2018 (roughly)). We have 5 weeks till that time frame so plenty of time. 

Southern Scotland is grey and dry at the moment (with occasional drizzle) and has been for a few days so enjoy the blue skies and frost down south. It will prepare the ground nicely for a blanket of snow in the coming weeks. 

Stay positive.

[winterof79]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1479707150586990595/photo/1

 

Also note GFS nailed the building heights further North through UK over ECM and may well have a grip on it building further north

Edited January 15, 2022 by winterof79

[minus10]

The 6z ens for 0z and 6z for Moscow

while a lot of scatter there is a trend for higher pressure over that area later in the month with the op being at higher end of pack. Indicative of a signal for rise in pressure to the ene perhaps. 

Of course, more runs needed...

[mushymanrob]

34 minutes ago, Starsail said:

Insider knowledge SH!!? ☺

More patience required I feel but ultimately that seems like a reasonable direction of travel. 

JH posting a page or so back of little change in the upper air pattern in the next 8-10 days. This is as good a sign as we will get of Little change short term. BFTP and others have suggested late Jan as the time of interest for some time now. That seems reasonable.

The Beast from the East ran 24Feb- 4 Mar 2018 (roughly)). We have 5 weeks till that time frame so plenty of time. 

Southern Scotland is grey and dry at the moment (with occasional drizzle) and has been for a few days so enjoy the blue skies and frost down south. It will prepare the ground nicely for a blanket of snow in the coming weeks. 

Stay positive.

The BFTE in 2018 was driven by a SSW in early February, theres no sign of a SSW in January or February so pinning hopes on late cold/snow is unlikely to be fruitful. Years when we have had late snows in March, other than brief showers, have been driven mostly by SSWs, but not all have.

[MJB]

59 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

The BFTE in 2018 was driven by a SSW in early February, theres no sign of a SSW in January or February so pinning hopes on late cold/snow is unlikely to be fruitful. Years when we have had late snows in March, other than brief showers, have been driven mostly by SSWs, but not all have.

SSW's aren't the be all and end all for cold and snow in the UK , if the PV can weaken enough for some WAA up towards Greenland then we always have a chance and whilst the HP is sat here you just never know . We aren't seeing a raging Atlantic which is often half the battle 

[Battleground Snow]

AO continues to trend more and more negative on today's update. NAO is more split

[Cold Winter Night]

Why does GFS/GEFS always seem to be throwing us nice looking charts in FI?
Many times they give us hope and lead us up the garden path, but we keep looking at them, because there have also been times when GFS was correct in being the first to pick up a significant pattern change. Frustrating really.

What those GFS/GEFS charts do show us, is that it's just a fine line between our present situation and a very wintry setup.

Unfortunately the EPS just doesn't want to go along in that American fun. All the way out to 360h it's pretty much the same.

They do agree on the tPV stretched/splitting off a trough that remains to our East.
High pressure remains dominant in our part of the world, with waves, so alternating between a crest phase (higher heights in the North Atlantic) and a trough phase (higher heights over Northwestern Europe).

No signal to go to a true NAO+. That has been absent for almost the entire winter so far, contrary to what seasonal models showed.

Even though EPS has no clusters that convincingly show it, the GFS scenario of those Ural/Siberian/Russian heights locking that Northeastern trough in place and then connecting to a more amplified East Atlantic ridge is not completely unrealistic.
So let's root for GFS/GEFS being right for once.

Because even though I loathe windy, rainy weather, this 'nothingness' of endless dark, low hanging Stratus and fog isn't much better.
I envy those of you who get to enjoy crisp frost days under this same High.

 

[Updated_Weather]

On 15/01/2022 at 10:31, Lukesluckybunch said:

how frustrating it is,at 192 we are close to somthing very cold! in terms of a easterly again we miss out!

Not really frustrating when imo it’s FI so changes are very likely. In our favour or not. 

[Decemberof2010]

P8 is the holy grail. 
A single cherry picked ens member at 16 days out!!!!

What can go wrong?

 

[winterof79]

44 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

AO continues to trend more and more negative on today's update. NAO is more split

Yes i posted yesterdays i think where it was losing traction its now going -negative

[TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN]

18 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Yes i posted yesterdays i think where it was losing traction its now going -negative

As a newbie on here is a negative NAO signal good or bad for the UK and possible winter weather...sorry for the novice question?

Edited January 15, 2022 by TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN said:

As a newbie on here does a negative NAO signal good or bad for the UK and possible winter weather...sorry for novice question?

Saves me waffling

When the AO index is negative, there tends to be low pressure in the polar region, weaker zonal winds, and greater movement of frigid polar air into middle latitudes."

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a back-and-forth shifting of atmospheric pressure between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific and North Atlantic. ... When the AO is strongly negative, a weaker, meandering jet dips farther south, allowing Arctic air to spill into the mid-latitudes.

Edited January 15, 2022 by winterof79

[Troubleatmill]

10 minutes ago, TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN said:

As a newbie on here is a negative NAO signal good or bad for the UK and possible winter weather...sorry for the novice question?

Possibly good, means blocking i.e high pressure in the North Atlantic . High pressure in the correct part of the Atlantic would bring cold air to us 

 

 

 

Edited January 15, 2022 by Beano
Missed

[CoxR]

11 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Saves me waffling

When the AO index is negative, there tends to be low pressure in the polar region, weaker zonal winds, and greater movement of frigid polar air into middle latitudes."

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a back-and-forth shifting of atmospheric pressure between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific and North Atlantic. ... When the AO is strongly negative, a weaker, meandering jet dips farther south, allowing Arctic air to spill into the mid-latitudes.

-AO is characterised by high pressure in the Arctic

[Paul]

More info on AO here:

And NAO here:

North Atlantic Oscillation

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

The North Atlantic Oscillation is a large-scale atmospheric pressure see-saw in the North Atlantic region

 

[Ali1977]

Cold topplers moves slightly west again, no real snow but will certainly be cold!! 

[TSNWK]

 NIce shift west with the cold at 120

 

[chris55]

6z GFS not bad. Looks to be toying with pressure rises towards scandi with the Atlantic held back.

I get the feeling our next phase of ‘potential’ will be from a scandi high  

 

12z so far

Edited January 15, 2022 by chris55

[TSNWK]

Now to see if this pesky high makes another move north east into next weekend..

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Now to see if this pesky high makes another move north east into next weekend..

Nope.. to much energy over the top this time will flatten now and we go back to fi chasing in this run.

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 144

 

Dry.

We can't get blocking far enough North though, and look unlikely to for the foreseeable.

 

 

[Howie]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Nope.. to much energy over the top this time will flatten now and we go back to fi chasing in this run.

The easterly qbo really isn't doing a good job at weakening the jet stream is it? 

[TSNWK]

Ukm 144 different by a lot against gfs… no cold waft here.

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, MJB said:

SSW's aren't the be all and end all for cold and snow in the UK , if the PV can weaken enough for some WAA up towards Greenland then we always have a chance and whilst the HP is sat here you just never know . We aren't seeing a raging Atlantic which is often half the battle 

Im fully aware of that, i am however referring to historical data which strongly suggests that proper snowfalls in march  usually, but not always come via a SSW. 1969, 1970, 1979, 1985, 2013, 2018 for eg. 

Those years all had late snow, and all had a SSW. Im struggling to remember any other year that did at least in my locale.  

By late i mean second half of feb  ans march. 

 

And there is a raging atlantic, its tracking energy north of the uk resulting in flooding in norway.

Edited January 15, 2022 by mushymanrob