Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Staffmoorlands]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The ecm op and suite is the stuff of nightmares for winter lovers it has to be said. I was expecting/hoping for much better this morning but its gone in the opposite direction unfortunately. 

Yes, a poor outlook for snow. Just looking at the models suggests a mainly cloudy week ahead with temperatures around 5-7c across England so not too far away from average 

[minus10]

Jusr running through the 6z run and the persistence of the high and this weather patten with the vortex bang on top of the artic is quite telling. Seems locked in to me for quite some time unfortunately and needs something drastic to change it...

No comment re ECM 

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Jusr running through the 6z run and the persistence of the high and this weather patten with the vortex bang on top of the artic is quite telling. Seems locked in to me for quite some time unfortunately and needs something drastic to change it...

No comment re ECM 

Indeed. As I said yesterday, I would have been more than happy if we managed to get a sunny, crisp and frosty high but it looks like we won't even manage that.

[Cuban Zebra]

Is there a world record for a high pressure being in the same place? Asking for a friend!

[booferking]

52 minutes ago, Summer Snow said:

Yes very amplified and continuing to show two fingers to ECM and GEM which both want the high pressure to collapse at this stage with Atlantic taking over....

It's been doing that all winter unfortunately then receids to backdown struggling badly.

[SqueakheartLW]

Since there's not a huge amount of interest in the models at the moment with a general high pressure bore fest outlook then I thought I would bring in a bit of cheer for the coldies today with the charts from the GFS extended run today that dip to at least -10C at 850hpa or lower just for something better to look at. I have ordered them in terms of nearest to current time out to furthest away.

P17     Thu Jan 20th 06:00     +126h     850hpa temp -10.2C

P26     Thu Jan 20th 12:00     +132h     850hpa temp -10.4C

P12     Tue Jan 25th 12:00     +252h     850hpa temp -10.1C

P13     Wed Jan 26th 12:00     +276h     850hpa temp -10.9C

P08     Wed Jan 26th 18:00     +282h     850hpa temp -11.1C

P01     Thu Jan 27th 06:00     +294h     850hpa temp -11.6C

P02     Thu Jan 27th 06:00     +294h     850hpa temp -10.4C

P13     Thu Jan 27th 18:00     +306h     850hpa temp -10.0C

P17     Thu Jan 27th 18:00     +306h     850hpa temp -12.3C

P08     Fri Jan 28th 12:00     +324h     850hpa temp -10.0C

P26     Fri Jan 28th 12:00     +324h     850hpa temp -11.1C

P06     Fri Jan 28th 18:00     +330h     850hpa temp -10.7C

P23     Sat Jan 29th 06:00     +342h     850hpa temp -10.4C

P29     Sat Jan 29th 18:00     +354h     850hpa temp -10.5C

P19     Sun Jan 30th 18:00     +378h     850hpa temp -10.9C

P26     Sun Jan 30th 18:00     +378h     850hpa temp -12.0C

P06     Mon Jan 31st 12:00     +396h     850hpa temp -10.2C

P25     Tue Feb 1st 06:00     +414h     850hpa temp -11.0C

P23     Tue Feb 1st 12:00     +420h     850hpa temp -11.9C

P13     Tue Feb 1st 18:00     +426h     850hpa temp -10.4C

P17     Wed Feb 2nd 12:00     +444h     850hpa temp -10.4C

P16     Wed Feb 2nd 18:00     +450h     850hpa temp -11.6C

P06     Thu Feb 3rd 00:00     +456h     850hpa temp -12.0C

P08     Thu Feb 3rd 06:00     +462h     850hpa temp -12.6C

P24     Thu Feb 3rd 06:00     +462h     850hpa temp -17.8C

P01     Thu Feb 3rd 18:00     +474h     850hpa temp -10.4C

P08     Fri Feb 4th 18:00     +498h     850hpa temp -11.3C

P05     Sat Feb 5th 06:00     +510h     850hpa temp -11.1C

P24     Sun Feb 6th 00:00     +528h     850hpa temp -11.8C

Control     Mon Feb 7th 06:00     +558h     850hpa temp -12.1C

P19     Mon Feb 7th 18:00     +570h     850hpa temp -12.1C

P25     Mon Feb 7th 18:00     +570h     850hpa temp -12.6C

P04     Tue Feb 8th 12:00     +588h     850hpa temp -12.5C

Control     Thu Feb 10th 00:00     +624h     850hpa temp -12.4C

P03     Thu Feb 10th 06:00     +630h     850hpa temp -10.9C

P12     Thu Feb 10th 18:00     +642h     850hpa temp -11.1C

P05     Fri Feb 11th 00:00     +648h     850hpa temp -11.2C

P19     Fri Feb 11th 06:00     +654h     850hpa temp -12.1C

P12     Sat Feb 12th 18:00     +690h     850hpa temp -12.3C

P05     Mon Feb 14th 12:00     +732h     850hpa temp -12.2C

P03     Wed Feb 16th 06:00     +774h     850hpa temp -10.8C

[E17boy]

Hi morning peeps,

My take on things

Well it’s the 16th of Jan today and when it is supposed to be the coldest winter period right now but look what mess we have got on our doorsteps. I don’t see anything in the output at this moment in  time to bring us coldies any cheer. This was my exact worry when I did a post back at the end of December regarding the Azores high and if we got this over us it may be a pattern that could be stuck for quite a while.

The days are going past and soon it will be February and then the nerves will really kick in as we will be staring at the last part of winter to scumper anything worthwhile. Alas I hate the dreaded thought for me here in NE London is this winter going to go past without seeing a single flake?

At the moment I can’t see this pattern from the outputs shifting in the near future. So my timeframe is end of January now to see if there are any changes that are worthwhile for the coldies. The problem is there always seems to be too much energy up north that has blocked this high going to a favourable position. Until we don’t see any sign of that subdating than I am afraid the chances for retrogression  are slim.

The other worry is if this high decides to move SE then I fear February may well bring little joy. What we need is a low in Iberia to form to try and squeeze the sh..t out of this slug. Hence why I sometimes think the Atlantic mobile pattern may well have  been better for us as at leat in that there may well be gaps to get cold incursions rather than being stuck in this rut.

We have still just about got time on our side just for now but even that clock is ticking. Something has to now give not in the distance future. Otherwise sadly it will be the last resort and straws make or break situation.

The waiting goes on

Regards 

[legritter]

Hi gang ,what a beautiful chart ,i nearly choked on my sausage bap ,the hunt is certainly still on ,cheers and yes Stella's all round , i cant load this mornings ecm chart its still showing last nights ,any ideas gang .

[NewEra21]

18 minutes ago, legritter said:

Hi gang ,what a beautiful chart ,i nearly choked on my sausage bap ,the hunt is certainly still on ,cheers and yes Stella's all round , i cant load this mornings ecm chart its still showing last nights ,any ideas gang .

Would be incredible if we can land anything like that this winter. But here's hoping.

I'm usually optimistic, but without any SSW this winter I'm not confident as we head into February. Hope I'm proved wrong though. As February has so often been our saving grace, although not very often without a SSW.

Edited January 16, 2022 by NewEra21

[minus10]

32 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Since there's not a huge amount of interest in the models at the moment with a general high pressure bore fest outlook then I thought I would bring in a bit of cheer for the coldies today with the charts from the GFS extended run today that dip to at least -10C at 850hpa or lower just for something better to look at. I have ordered them in terms of nearest to current time out to furthest away.

P17     Thu Jan 20th 06:00     +126h     850hpa temp -10.2C

P26     Thu Jan 20th 12:00     +132h     850hpa temp -10.4C

P12     Tue Jan 25th 12:00     +252h     850hpa temp -10.1C

P13     Wed Jan 26th 12:00     +276h     850hpa temp -10.9C

P08     Wed Jan 26th 18:00     +282h     850hpa temp -11.1C

P01     Thu Jan 27th 06:00     +294h     850hpa temp -11.6C

P02     Thu Jan 27th 06:00     +294h     850hpa temp -10.4C

P13     Thu Jan 27th 18:00     +306h     850hpa temp -10.0C

P17     Thu Jan 27th 18:00     +306h     850hpa temp -12.3C

P08     Fri Jan 28th 12:00     +324h     850hpa temp -10.0C

P26     Fri Jan 28th 12:00     +324h     850hpa temp -11.1C

P06     Fri Jan 28th 18:00     +330h     850hpa temp -10.7C

P23     Sat Jan 29th 06:00     +342h     850hpa temp -10.4C

P29     Sat Jan 29th 18:00     +354h     850hpa temp -10.5C

P19     Sun Jan 30th 18:00     +378h     850hpa temp -10.9C

P26     Sun Jan 30th 18:00     +378h     850hpa temp -12.0C

P06     Mon Jan 31st 12:00     +396h     850hpa temp -10.2C

P25     Tue Feb 1st 06:00     +414h     850hpa temp -11.0C

P23     Tue Feb 1st 12:00     +420h     850hpa temp -11.9C

P13     Tue Feb 1st 18:00     +426h     850hpa temp -10.4C

P17     Wed Feb 2nd 12:00     +444h     850hpa temp -10.4C

P16     Wed Feb 2nd 18:00     +450h     850hpa temp -11.6C

P06     Thu Feb 3rd 00:00     +456h     850hpa temp -12.0C

P08     Thu Feb 3rd 06:00     +462h     850hpa temp -12.6C

P24     Thu Feb 3rd 06:00     +462h     850hpa temp -17.8C

P01     Thu Feb 3rd 18:00     +474h     850hpa temp -10.4C

P08     Fri Feb 4th 18:00     +498h     850hpa temp -11.3C

P05     Sat Feb 5th 06:00     +510h     850hpa temp -11.1C

P24     Sun Feb 6th 00:00     +528h     850hpa temp -11.8C

Control     Mon Feb 7th 06:00     +558h     850hpa temp -12.1C

P19     Mon Feb 7th 18:00     +570h     850hpa temp -12.1C

P25     Mon Feb 7th 18:00     +570h     850hpa temp -12.6C

P04     Tue Feb 8th 12:00     +588h     850hpa temp -12.5C

Control     Thu Feb 10th 00:00     +624h     850hpa temp -12.4C

P03     Thu Feb 10th 06:00     +630h     850hpa temp -10.9C

P12     Thu Feb 10th 18:00     +642h     850hpa temp -11.1C

P05     Fri Feb 11th 00:00     +648h     850hpa temp -11.2C

P19     Fri Feb 11th 06:00     +654h     850hpa temp -12.1C

P12     Sat Feb 12th 18:00     +690h     850hpa temp -12.3C

P05     Mon Feb 14th 12:00     +732h     850hpa temp -12.2C

P03     Wed Feb 16th 06:00     +774h     850hpa temp -10.8C

Thanks for keeping up the spirits squeaky even though it was a marathon scrolling thru them all

We can only hope that one of these becomes reality at some point...

[Froze were the Days]

Legritter - don't bother looking at the 0z ecm it's very underwhelming (as it has been all winter, but probably not far off the money)...trying to bring the Atlantic back in by D10.

[SqueakheartLW]

6 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Thanks for keeping up the spirits squeaky even though it was a marathon scrolling thru them all

We can only hope that one of these becomes reality at some point...

I hope so too, especially this one purely for those uppers

P24     Thu Feb 3rd 06:00     +462h     850hpa temp -17.8C

[SqueakheartLW]

Give me P10 from the latest GFS 06z please

Not only is it the coldest member of the GFS for the cold snap on Thursday with uppers dipping down to -12.1C

20th January 12:00     850hpa temp -12.1C

 

P10 then goes on to be with the coldest members too from 26th January onwards with uppers averaging around -10C

26th January 12:00     850hpa temp -12.2C

27th January 12:00     850hpa temp -10.3C

28th January 12:00     850hpa temp -10.0C

29th January 12:00     850hpa temp -11.2C

30th January 12:00     850hpa temp -10.1C

31st January 12:00     850hpa temp -9.7C

Coldest individual chart from GFS 06z

P26     Thu Jan 27th 12:00     850hpa temp -13.4C

[Cambrian]

Even with a slow moving pattern, looking out to and beyond day 10 is fraught with ambiguity, but maybe now there are some consistent patterns cropping up that warrant some mention. 

This is very much just for what it’s worth a current hunch. It is difficult to navigate the trends in the models when they have such a consistently strong signal for maintaining the Atlantic high, sometimes out to two weeks, just rolling it around the ocean, but experience tells us the setup probably won’t last that long in reality. 

(As an aside, it would be interesting to know if anyone collates data on the highest average barometric pressure over the UK / Ireland for a given month or winter because we must be getting close to a record there.)

So looking for changes, there is the first tentative signal of a plausible breakdown from the northwest in 10 days time, indicated by the 12z ECM op yesterday and 0z today. The precise detail is different but the direction is broadly the same, with the high slipping west or southwest. The 12z GEM op from yesterday showed similar. 
 

  

Many of us might well be pleased for this by then, if for nothing else, just to shift the high and open up for the chance of eventually getting some lower T850s in cleanly. 

To some extent today’s 6z GFS operational run at 240h is a variation on the same theme of retrogression. 

Admittedly, some runs keep the low further to the north, but the point is across the three models, there is a growing trend for runs showing prominent retrogression of the high pressure to the mid Atlantic by that stage, and for.a low pressure to work its way down from Greenland. 

The GEM op only runs to 240h, but the GEM control goes on to day 11 with this…

 

And on to day 14 / 15 with this….some properly cold air getting here

 

I rate the GEM control in these kinds of situations where we’re looking for a pattern change  - it’s as good a sniffer as we have, it sniffed out the November northerly first and stuck to its guns even when the GEM op wavered a bit. I sometimes feel the ops overplay the potential development of small features and lose the basic evolution.

When the high finally gets kicked off the park, plenty in the charts to suggest it’s most likely to be replaced first by a westerly then by an alternating northwesterly / northerly pattern by the end of the month, good chance indeed of going back to the pre-Christmas pattern of high pressure alternating with spells of NW-SE aligned jet, containing successive bursts of polar maritime and Arctic air. 

Except of course the Atlantic is colder, the Arctic is colder, and the cold to the northeast that is engaged as systems head southeast is deeper. I actually think that there are better than usual prospects for wintry weather at the end of January going into February. 

This might all be completely wrong of course but it seems the most likely end of January outcome to me, and you’ve godda have a go! 

[Cold Winter Night]

I still find it very strange to see that a large proportion of the GEFS output after 240h has no counterpart at all in the EPS, not even as a small cluster. And unfortunately that's precisely the output coldies crave.

If you would follow only GFS/GEFS, you would get the impression that a cold spell towards the end of the month is a decently supported, serious option. Here at 312h:

If you would follow only ECM/EPS, you would get the impression that a cold spell around that time is out of the question.
It's only getting worse there, from High to mild and mobile.

GEFS is infamous for being more optimistic for coldies than EPS, but the difference the past few weeks is incredible.

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Cuban Zebra said:

Is there a world record for a high pressure being in the same place? Asking for a friend!

If there is I'm sure Siberia probably holds it, and no we've no chance of breaking it.

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Cambrian said:

Even with a slow moving pattern, looking out to and beyond day 10 is fraught with ambiguity, but maybe now there are some consistent patterns cropping up that warrant some mention. 

This is very much just for what it’s worth a current hunch. It is difficult to navigate the trends in the models when they have such a consistently strong signal for maintaining the Atlantic high, sometimes out to two weeks, just rolling it around the ocean, but experience tells us the setup probably won’t last that long in reality. 

(As an aside, it would be interesting to know if anyone collates data on the highest average barometric pressure over the UK / Ireland for a given month or winter because we must be getting close to a record there.)

So looking for changes, there is the first tentative signal of a plausible breakdown from the northwest in 10 days time, indicated by the 12z ECM op yesterday and 0z today. The precise detail is different but the direction is broadly the same, with the high slipping west or southwest. The 12z GEM op from yesterday showed similar. 
 

  

Many of us might well be pleased for this by then, if for nothing else, just to shift the high and open up for the chance of eventually getting some lower T850s in cleanly. 

To some extent today’s 6z GFS operational run at 240h is a variation on the same theme of retrogression. 

Admittedly, some runs keep the low further to the north, but the point is across the three models, there is a growing trend for runs showing prominent retrogression of the high pressure to the mid Atlantic by that stage, and for.a low pressure to work its way down from Greenland. 

The GEM op only runs to 240h, but the GEM control goes on to day 11 with this…

 

And on to day 14 / 15 with this….some properly cold air getting here

 

I rate the GEM control in these kinds of situations where we’re looking for a pattern change  - it’s as good a sniffer as we have, it sniffed out the November northerly first and stuck to its guns even when the GEM op wavered a bit. I sometimes feel the ops overplay the potential development of small features and lose the basic evolution.

When the high finally gets kicked off the park, plenty in the charts to suggest it’s most likely to be replaced first by a westerly then by an alternating northwesterly / northerly pattern by the end of the month, good chance indeed of going back to the pre-Christmas pattern of high pressure alternating with spells of NW-SE aligned jet, containing successive bursts of polar maritime and Arctic air. 

Except of course the Atlantic is colder, the Arctic is colder, and the cold to the northeast that is engaged as systems head southeast is deeper. I actually think that there are better than usual prospects for wintry weather at the end of January going into February. 

This might all be completely wrong of course but it seems the most likely end of January outcome to me, and you’ve godda have a go! 

Great post Cambrian..you have given me some hope.

I had wondered whether there could have been a link up on gfs6z at 240 then again 339 between the heights to ne and our friendly but vortex too strong.

 

 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

ICON going for it here in later stages,looking good!

[The Eagle]

ICON is a noticeable, though not there yet, improvement by day 8 and that alignment coming out of Newfoundland looking a bit more attractive but still too advanced eastward for decent propagation of WAA up the west side of GL on this run.

But an improvement, let's see if there is anything in it

 

[SqueakheartLW]

16 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ICON going for it here in later stages,looking good!

Is the ICON about to be:

ICON to the idea of possible cold and snow finally

rather than remaining:

ICOFF to the idea of possible cold and snow

[Summer Snow]

22 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ICON going for it here in later stages,looking good!

Interesting....this model never bought in to the failed pre Xmas cold spell and proved correct.....and has performed well since then also.....might be on to something hopefully 

[SqueakheartLW]

Just now, Summer Snow said:

Interesting....this model never bought in to the failed pre Xmas cold spell and proved correct.....and has performed well since then also.....might be on to something hopefully 

As long as that low to the west of Greenland doesn't flatten off the pattern

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

As long as that low to the west of Greenland doesn't flatten off the pattern

yes do you think heights will continue into greenland there?

[SqueakheartLW]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

yes do you think heights will continue into greenland there?

You would hope so but knowing the luck we have here in the UK it probably won't happen

[SqueakheartLW]

Colder uppers look slightly further west on GFS 12z vs 06z