Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Battleground Snow]

47 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Unfortunately there is little cheer from the ensembles at the moment for any sign of real cold and snow,at least as far as they go out.The NH pattern remains quite static with the large Canadian/Greenland vortex segment holding firm and keeping any chance of Atlantic ridging,let along northern blocking,almost nil.

There seems nothing upstream showing up to shake up the cold upper core over NA and it just keeps giving.Ongoing prospects of snow and cold outbreaks for the Winter fans over there,especially on the eastern side.

The ens and clusters show the high still nearby but there does seem to be the trend to flatten the Atlantic jet and place it a little further south by the end of week 2.

                                                               

The westerlies are showing up over more of the country as time goes on.Gefs a little slower to do this but by day 15 that seems to be the favourite outcome currently.

We will continue to see some frosts and crisp sunny days this week and then we will have to see where we go with this high and any sign of the Atlantic moving in over the top as the ens. suggest.

 

Yes, nothing is pointing to significant cold in the next 2-3 weeks. AO forecast has backed off from a negative outlook now.

MJO finally out of 7 and in cod, it did give us blocking but the convective activity wasn't enough for a HLB.

I have a feeling there will be a sting in the tail in March, like a lot of recent years. When the strat vortex goes through its annual decline, I bet there will be crazy synoptic charts, especially when you factor in the east qbo, weakening la Nina and the abundance of cold in the northern hemisphere

We would take a cold snowy March of course, but it would be nice to have a cold "winter month" for one year.

 

Edited January 17, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[Lloyd1]

18 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yes, nothing is pointing to significant cold in the next 2-3 weeks. AO forecast has backed off from a negative outlook now.

MJO finally out of 7 and in cod, it did give us blocking but the convective activity wasn't enough for a HLB.

I have a feeling there will be a sting in the tail in March, like a lot of recent years. When the strat vortex goes through its annual decline, I bet there will be crazy synoptic charts, especially when you factor in the east qbo, weakening la Nina and the abundance of cold in the northern hemisphere

We would take a cold snowy March of course, but it would be nice to have a cold "winter month" for one year.

 

Do you think we are starting to see a change in pattern to our winters now, in terms of March becoming a colder winter month in comparison to the likes of December or is it just by chance we have had a couple of cold snappy spells in March. Thanks 

[Battleground Snow]

16 minutes ago, Lloyd1 said:

Do you think we are starting to see a change in pattern to our winters now, in terms of March becoming a colder winter month in comparison to the likes of December or is it just by chance we have had a couple of cold snappy spells in March. Thanks 

It's possibly caused by having a very strong polar vortex over the winter in recent years, once it relents, the bottled up cold spills down into the mid latitudes, but on the other hand, USA still seem to be able to get cold winter under this set up, but all they really need is a Pacific ridge though to get frigid temps, where as we need about 5 things to come together for us to get significant cold.

I don't think warmer Atlantic sea temperatures help us either, as even a cold north westerly doesn't seem to produce much snow these days either, I remember as a kid in Coventry, we used to get a fair few Cheshire gap streamers.

Others have also mentioned the expanding Hadley cell, which is basically an area of semi permanent high pressure  that stretches from the equator north to around 30 degrees, and effects circulations but again this doesn't seem to affect other areas, e.g Japan.

Solar activity rising again wasn't helpful either this year.

Edited January 17, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[mountain shadow]

13 minutes ago, Lloyd1 said:

Do you think we are starting to see a change in pattern to our winters now, in terms of March becoming a colder winter month in comparison to the likes of December or is it just by chance we have had a couple of cold snappy spells in March. Thanks 

Snow is more likely at Easter than Christmas,  that is fact.

The PV is well below average temp wise and has been since November.

That bitter cold will have to be released at some point.

If there is no SSW then a below average April and May is more likely, if we get a SSW in February then March could be special. 

[swfc]

Good grief the hunt for cold moves to march and spring. Amazing from late November with all the great charts, mjo, snow cover, easterly based qbo and northwests la Nina and Dickension pre Xmas posts. I guess the lesson is there is no lesson and as Tamara said "the nhp and synoptics don't care what the likes of us on here like, weather wise". Enjoy the dry bright weather anyway.

[summer blizzard]

Day 10 and the Euro still has our high going strong.

[MP-R]

43 minutes ago, Lloyd1 said:

Do you think we are starting to see a change in pattern to our winters now, in terms of March becoming a colder winter month in comparison to the likes of December or is it just by chance we have had a couple of cold snappy spells in March. Thanks 

March won’t become a winter month but will continue to produce late wintry spells in the same way as September will often bring at least one late summery spell. Cold Marches overall I think will continue the ‘every 3-5 years’ cycle.

That said, with regards to temperatures, even down here the first half of March almost always compares with or is colder than the first half of December. Beyond midmonth though, much less so unless exceptional.

It would not surprise me if we get a cold wet March this year if the current pattern breaks with the jet moving south but also slowing down throughout the month. Pure conjecture of course but we might be in a Feb-Apr 2012 type scenario but a month earlier.

[Battleground Snow]

Back to the (near future)

Icon showing interest in euro troughing, ECM has no sign of this at all, icon and GFS on same page atm

[Staffmoorlands]

UKMO 12z showing a more unsettled outlook by 144hr especially for the northern half of the UK. This was mentioned yesterday by Louise Lear (BBC)

[Alexis]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Snow is more likely at Easter than Christmas,  that is fact.

Sort of. Snow is more likely if Easter falls in March, but more likely in December than if Easter falls past a certain date in April.

Overall, it's more likely to be Easter. But this year with it being late I'd go for more likely at Christmas!

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Staffmoorlands said:

UKMO 12z showing a more unsettled outlook by 144hr especially for the northern half of the UK. This was mentioned yesterday by Louise Lear (BBC)

What will the 168 chart show 

[Don]

16 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

What will the 168 chart show 

Little to please cold lovers I'm sure!

[TSNWK]

19 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

UKMO 12z showing a more unsettled outlook by 144hr especially for the northern half of the UK. This was mentioned yesterday by Louise Lear (BBC)

Good.. I know it's risky...but I'm increasing minded to go for pattern reset and take my chances...

[Don]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Good.. I know it's risky...but I'm increasing minded to go for pattern reset and take my chances...

Yes, when we've had these 'rests' before, we've just been subjected to weeks of mild zonality!

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, when we've had these 'rests' before, we've just been subjected to weeks of mild zonality!

Yes Don folk been banging on for weeks for the holding high and then the non descript ridging and retrogression . Think it's a bit late to move the goal posts on that one but it's still only january

[Staffmoorlands]

Not the best 12z so far. It looks dry and settled for England and Wales with temperatures around average.

Scotland looks much milder after a brief cold snap and potentially a bit wetter. Could be looking at 12-14c for Aberdeen 

[northwestsnow]

GFS setting up an FI special..?

[Ali1977]

Quite a few ENS building heights up into and thru Iceland at T174, the mean showing this. It will probably come to nothing no doubt!!

A few examples here, inc the control 

Edited January 17, 2022 by Ali1977

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS setting up an FI special..?

[northwestsnow]

Just now, swfc said:

It's getting there

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Quite a few ENS building heights up into and thru Iceland at T174, the mean showing this. It will probably come to nothing no doubt!!

A few examples here, inc the control 

Yes Ali some look OK if not familiar. PV looks ominous to the nnw tho

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

It's getting there

It is mate, be fine mid April

[northwestsnow]

Well yes there's a huge PV but GFS has cold air in the mix at times via PM shots..

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well yes there's a huge PV but GFS has cold air in the mix at times via PM shots..

Yes I guess you got to grab what you can altho for me don't want the odd cold blast. Very disappointing tbh but worse things in life pal

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,GFS/ICON keen on bringing colder 850 hpa temperatures nothing really changes still

all about positioning and orientation of high pressure,will be more confident of colder options if ECM

gets on board later fingers crossed.

[Northern Sky]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well yes there's a huge PV but GFS has cold air in the mix at times via PM shots..

GFS ends up cool/cold pretty much throughout the run. Little snow but plenty of frosts. 

It's (or it would be if it actually happened) much better than mild dross but I'm starting to miss a bit of wind and rain, never mind snow!