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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

Community Team

By Community Team
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread and use the winter chat thread for non-model related discussion.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

For less of a cold-slanted look at the models, please head over to the alternate model discussion. 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

We just need the ECM and EPS to jump away from those depressing charts, the GEFS have showed many great charts the last few days and finally the ICON shows a little promise

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

We just need the ECM and EPS to jump away from those depressing charts, the GEFS have showed many great charts the last few days and finally the ICON shows a little promise

thats true ali and we are looking at this 12z to be much better then 6z

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

Colder uppers quite well into the U.K. at T90 now , with quite a few snow showers in the NE Scotland 

D4ABA107-EEC3-43EE-B08E-6E8B89D08763.png

Even the east coast getting in the action for snow 

5C0593D4-22C4-4344-B1FA-6EDD1DE62EA9.png

38DAF842-B0AE-4641-93B7-F69706679ABD.png

Edited by Ali1977
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SqueakheartLW Accomplished

SqueakheartLW

Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Colder uppers quite well into the U.K. at T90 now , with quite a few snow showers in the NE Scotland 

D4ABA107-EEC3-43EE-B08E-6E8B89D08763.png

Even the east coast getting in the action for snow 

5C0593D4-22C4-4344-B1FA-6EDD1DE62EA9.png

38DAF842-B0AE-4641-93B7-F69706679ABD.png

All we need to do now is angle the flow to come more from the NE to put more of us in the game

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SqueakheartLW Accomplished

SqueakheartLW

Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
Posted
Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

ukmo not buying into anything amplified.very flat hp close by to uk

The only comfort we can take from this is that UKMO was one of the models most bullish on the idea of the cold spell pre Christmas so if UKMO is off the idea then that can be seen as a positive

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

The only comfort we can take from this is that UKMO was one of the models most bullish on the idea of the cold spell pre Christmas so if UKMO is off the idea then that can be seen as a positive

is it me or the UKMO seems to be showing a similar idea for days now

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted (edited)

Such fine margins on this...just further little adjustments nw could make all the difference....trouble is just as likely to get little adjustments the other way...

1429591333_h850t850eu(83).thumb.png.df7a6e545d477f10ec1dc3f4980a0059.png

Or bigger knowing the gfs...

Edited by minus10
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Staffmoorlands Community Regular

Staffmoorlands

Posted
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL
Posted

ICON vs the UKMO/ECM - I think we know the winner here

13 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

The only comfort we can take from this is that UKMO was one of the models most bullish on the idea of the cold spell pre Christmas so if UKMO is off the idea then that can be seen as a positive

The UKMO was never bullish. It was the GFS and a couple of ECM runs that were showing a big freeze up at Xmas 

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted
1 minute ago, Staffmoorlands said:

ICON vs the UKMO/ECM - I think we know the winner here

The Icon

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted

Talk about BullsEye...target uk

gfs-0-216.thumb.png.3f180db0a5d47aa4ab80ca7665429b38.png

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

This UK high is fastly becoming the new euro high. Not looking like the PV to the nnw will allow any real ridging. Only plus for me is its dry

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Staffmoorlands Community Regular

Staffmoorlands

Posted
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL
Posted
2 minutes ago, swfc said:

This UK high is fastly becoming the new euro high. Not looking like the PV to the nnw will allow any real ridging. Only plus for me is its dry

BBC are going with the ECM which suggests the high slipping south east leading to more unsettled and milder weather from the west by day 8-10

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

BBC are going with the ECM which suggests the high slipping south east leading to more unsettled and milder weather from the west by day 8-10

BBC always go with ECM.  It's their suppliers model of choice.

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted

Holland / Germany are in for at least 4 spells of fairly potent cold in next couple of weeks according to gfs run...we really are geographically  located in the wrong place..

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted
14 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Holland / Germany are in for at least 4 spells of fairly potent cold in next couple of weeks according to gfs run...we really are geographically  located in the wrong place..

I said yesterday that the UK covers 0.01 percent of the Earth's surface . Getting real cold is a lottery , ....Some very cold nights by the end of the week  as that cold front clears south bringing residual  Artic air......

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted
30 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

BBC always go with ECM.  It's their suppliers model of choice.

and most likely to be not far off the mark...somehow I have no confidence on what the gfs runs are saying after approximately D7-8.

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted
3 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Holland / Germany are in for at least 4 spells of fairly potent cold in next couple of weeks according to gfs run...we really are geographically  located in the wrong place..

Yes, in Holland we are in a great location for fantasy cold spells. All it takes is a little imagination!

GFS looks pretty good again. And no doubt ECM 12z won't look good, again.

 

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