Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[phil nw.]

We can see around day 6 the Atlantic jet having a surge from upstream which subsequently flattens the Atlantic heights somewhat.

 

This may well come from the effects of a number of lows running up the eastern NA seaboard over the coming week.These are heading up from way south from the base of the elongated Canadian trough and they are dragging a lot of warmth up that eastern coast.This sharpens the boundary layers as the bitter cold surges out into the Atlantic,driven by the lee flow of these lows. 

That is a serious amount of cold air heading from the north west into the Atlantic in the following days.It may be the start of a change to something more unsettled  from that direction.

[damianslaw]

51 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

We can see around day 6 the Atlantic jet having a surge from upstream which subsequently flattens the Atlantic heights somewhat.

 

This may well come from the effects of a number of lows running up the eastern NA seaboard over the coming week.These are heading up from way south from the base of the elongated Canadian trough and they are dragging a lot of warmth up that eastern coast.This sharpens the boundary layers as the bitter cold surges out into the Atlantic,driven by the lee flow of these lows. 

That is a serious amount of cold air heading from the north west into the Atlantic in the following days.It may be the start of a change to something more unsettled  from that direction.

Unsettled and in any flow from the NW - some potent cold I would imagine given the depth of cold to tap into..

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Unsettled and in any flow from the NW - some potent cold I would imagine given the depth of cold to tap into..

Afraid not. The atlantic is the great modifier. 

[phil nw.]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Unsettled and in any flow from the NW - some potent cold I would imagine given the depth of cold to tap into..

A North westerly should be quite cold Damian,plenty of cold nearby.

[blizzard81]

More downward spikes in the ecm ens from 26th onwards. Ties in with the gfs ext ens. 

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

A North westerly should be quite cold Damian,plenty of cold nearby.

Yes by late January the arctic has cooled signficantly, likewise Canadian arctic/NE USA usually nearing its coldest point.. North westerly airstreams late Jan to mid March have a cold bite to them.

[SqueakheartLW]

Give me GEM 12z P4 at +348h

OR

GFS 12z P10 at +372h

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes by late January the arctic has cooled signficantly, likewise Canadian arctic/NE USA usually nearing its coldest point.. North westerly airstreams late Jan to mid March have a cold bite to them.

Its a massive ask these days to get anything noteworthy from a polar north westerly and even if we did, it would end up being a slushy mess for most on here. It just wouldn't cut the mustard. 

[IDO]

The ECM mean is, as you were:

D10> 

The op was a clear aberration, an outlier that the D8+ ECM is well known for, but surpassed itself here. London pressure:

So looks like HP in charge.

Edited January 15, 2022 by IDO

[Lukesluckybunch]

pattern slightly further west at 78h,lets hope it makes for better run

[TSNWK]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

pattern slightly further west at 78h,lets hope it makes for better run

Yep colder air about 50 miles further south west on east this run.. this in addition to a similar shunt between 06z and 12z

Edited January 15, 2022 by TSNWK

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Yep colder air about 50 miles further south west on the is run.. this in addition to a similar shunt between 06z and 12z

surely cant be wrong at short range! haha..dare say might be a good run this one,just looks a improvment the curve on the hp

Edited January 15, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
adding

[Tim Bland]

Can’t be the only person wondering if we can shift this pattern west a few hundred miles west in 5 days…

[blizzard81]

God bless the pub run. It always likes to send us to bed in a good mood. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

siberian hp link up? surely not this early!

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Can’t be the only person wondering if we can shift this pattern west a few hundred miles west in 5 days…

Constant tease. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Snow showers nudging E Scotland, E England on this run.

EDIT : beaten to it, only just started viewing run right now, late to the party.

Edited January 15, 2022 by feb1991blizzard

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Can’t be the only person wondering if we can shift this pattern west a few hundred miles west in 5 days…

If we can get the same south west corrections of the Pv trough into Europe as we have previous 2 runs for the next 2 run then might be few surprises end of week 

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Can’t be the only person wondering if we can shift this pattern west a few hundred miles west in 5 days…

Low pressure trying to pull off a miracle, probably just won't make it here

[TSNWK]

So god darn close here…

[Updated_Weather]

On 15/01/2022 at 22:11, Tim Bland said:

Can’t be the only person wondering if we can shift this pattern west a few hundred miles west in 5 days…

All very possible of course. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

So god darn close here…

it was far better up to this timeframe,so thats enough i think for the moment,somthing to work from!

Edited January 15, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
spelling

[TSNWK]

Interesting….

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Interesting….

yep i think we going places on this run!

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

it was far better up to this timeframe,so thats enough i think for the moment,somthing to work from!

There's definitely scope for substantial short term improvements on the morning runs.