Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ok but the this mornings 0z isn't out yet right...

Not that I can see but some on here seem to be able to view it? Would they kindly let us know where we can view it please?

[mountain shadow]

9 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ok but the this mornings 0z isn't out yet right...

It's out on this sites chart page.

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Not that I can see but some on here seem to be able to view it? Would they kindly let us know where we can view it please?

Do you guys not know that this site has its own charts page?

They're easier to read than Wetterzentrale although they're a bit slower coming out.

[Paul_1978]

If we can’t get snow, this high pressure spell suits me fine. Settled, cool/cold, a few pea soupers thrown in for good measure. That’s not too bad, and for me better than wind and rain. 

Let’s see how long this GFS easterly teases us. Could be the start of another chase….

[Paul]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Do you guys not know that this site has its own charts page?

They're easier to read than Wetterzentrale although they're a bit slower coming out.

ECMWF Weather Charts - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Weather charts from the ECMWF model - updated twice daily

 

[blizzard81]

I knew about Netweather having all the charts but I just go on meteociel or wetterzentrale. Just out of habit I suppose. I just assumed that Netweather wouldn't have the updated ecm if meteociel and wetterzentrale didn't have them. 

[johnholmes]

This NOAA 6-10 day chart and the 8-14 day one  show the predicted upper air pattern. There is little real sign, yet, of any marked change. Any deep cold can be no more than a brief 24 possibly 48 hour passing spell behind any cold front that manages to penetrate the UK. This probably more likely for the north.

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[Singularity]

Seems a blocking high should take shape near or over the Urals starting 7-8 days from now. That ramps up wave-1 flux into the stratosphere, which for the first time this winter, GFS is predicting to head poleward and into the core of the polar vortex.

Something to keep an eye on. In the meantime, exceptionally settled UK outlook continues. Interesting to see a merger of the Canada & Scandinavia troughs keep being put back or dropped completely by the individual runs (ensemble means don’t show it well due to differences in timing of lows travelling between the two troughs).

Yet sufficient partitions for the UK high to gain enough latitude for more than glancing incursions of polar/Arctic air are tending to stay in the 10-16 day range. Hence the pattern looks so locked-in.

[johnholmes]

Just adding the ECMWF set of charts showing ridging for the UK with the cold trough well east of here most of the 6-14 day period

http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif

 

[Mariescb]

1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

If we can’t get snow, this high pressure spell suits me fine. Settled, cool/cold, a few pea soupers thrown in for good measure. That’s not too bad, and for me better than wind and rain. 

Let’s see how long this GFS easterly teases us. Could be the start of another chase….

Absolutely. Currently -1 where I am with no wind, gorgeous blue sky and the ground is white with hard frost. What's not to love, beautiful winter winter.

[Battleground Snow]

GFS 06z looking much better early on across the Arctic.

Here is my hopecast for the later frames

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Mariescb said:

Absolutely. Currently -1 where I am with no wind, gorgeous blue sky and the ground is white with hard frost. What's not to love, beautiful winter winter.

Absolutely . I will be the last to moan about the projected synoptics. A cold crisp high in winter is second only to powder snow for me. Catching buses to and from work every day in constant wind and rain is incredibly depressing year in, year out so this high pressure is an absolute blessing for me. Lovely frosty morning here with fog drifting in and out. Absolutely lovely. And this under not very impressive uppers (ecm attached) so just goes to show what can be achieved with quite high upper temps. 

[SqueakheartLW]

GEM 00z

I'll take GEM 00z P18 for the period from 26th January onwards

26th

27th

28th

29th

30th

GFS 00z

Failing that if we can't have GEM 00z P18 from 26th January onwards I'll take GFS 00z P29 instead from 24th January onwards. Not quite as good as the GEM 00z P18 but a nice make do run instead

24th

25th

26th

27th

28th

29th

30th

 

[TSNWK]

7 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS 06z looking much better early on across the Arctic.

Here is my hopecast for the later frames

Certainly having a sniff on moving the heights to a more favourable position.. heading north east though not north west

[Lukesluckybunch]

how frustrating it is,at 192 we are close to somthing very cold! in terms of a easterly again we miss out!

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

how frustrating it is,at 192 we are close to somthing very cold! in terms of a easterly again we miss out!

Yep. Not far off at all. 

[E17boy]

14 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

GEM 00z

I'll take GEM 00z P18 for the period from 26th January onwards

26th

27th

28th

29th

30th

GFS 00z

Failing that if we can't have GEM 00z P18 from 26th January onwards I'll take GFS 00z P29 instead from 24th January onwards. Not quite as good as the GEM 00z P18 but a nice make do run instead

24th

25th

26th

27th

28th

29th

30th

 

 

[marksp]

Not much to say really if looking for snow, sure its cold, and dry, also foggy, but watching models when we have this is a bit of a drag at present.

[SqueakheartLW]

GFS Extended

Split this up into 2 posts since I wanted to feature a nice GFS extended member too. How about P29 from the GFS extended run from the 26th January onwards. Would make a nice cold start to February too. Not anything severe in terms of 850hpa temps but just generally cold. To save on the sheer number of charts I have only posted the 850hpa temp charts for each day. The rough pressure pattern can still be seen anyhow.

26th Jan                                                   27th Jan                                                    28th Jan

29th Jan                                                   30th Jan                                                   31st Jan

1st Feb                                                     2nd Feb                                                   3rd Feb

4th Feb                                                    5th Feb                                                     6th Feb

7th Feb                                                    8th Feb                                                     9th Feb

10th Feb                                                  11th Feb                                                   12th Feb

13th Feb                                                  14th Feb                                                  15th Feb

16th Feb                                                  17th Feb

[Summer Snow]

12 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Certainly having a sniff on moving the heights to a more favourable position.. heading north east though not north west

Might be our way out of current set up to a colder pattern......some of the 0z GEFS and 0z op hinted at this earlier....once the pattern remains amplified we have a chance of things falling more favourably further down the line.....hopefully ecm jumps on board over coming runs as currently it is hinting at high gradually sinking southeast in later frames which would leave us in a very poor position heading in to end of Jan / Last month of winter proper 

[Scandinavian High.]

8 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

how frustrating it is,at 192 we are close to somthing very cold! in terms of a easterly again we miss out!

We don’t hit jackpot but trends looking good high to push north east.

[jamesthemonkeh]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Was a dry blocked Jan foreseen by any long range models?

Not the CFSv2 which I follow - at times at had hints of high pressure anomoly to our west, but (and this is going from memory) was mostly showing low pressure anomaly across  the UK and to the north - though it did trend to show it slightly more over Scandinavia before January's pressure anomalies disappeared from the website.

[MJB]

Could get anything from this 

[E17boy]

Hi peeps,

Will today be a day when we finally see some kind of hope on the horizon to the end of this slug high pressure? Who knows but something funny inside me is saying there are maybe tiny hints of a change but no guarantee. Let’s see what churns out today.

The frustration is getting a bit unbearable but it’s mid January today, time is still with us until we reach that February last fence. Something somewhere is definitely looking at our shores whether it’s for the better or worse who knows. We need to look for a way out to break this stuck pattern. I know a few have said they prefer this rather than a mobile run of westerlies. I totally get where you are coming from, however if this high sitting over us is going to do us no justice except eat some of what winter we have left then I would say bring back the Atlantic to shift this. At least in the Atlantic setup we have more chance of finding. A gap for cold rather than being stuck under this rut where we know there is no chance or way out until the high shifts to a favourable place. So that’s my thoughts at the moment 2 sides of the sea saw 1 is bring back the Atlantic so we can at least shift back to the normal run of things and then look at for our chances side 2 keep this high and wait for it all I shift to a favourable location but risk loosing the days we are counting. Anyway the waiting goes on

[Lukesluckybunch]

pretty good 6z here pretty cold throughout becoming very cold end of the run!im liking the trends here for end of january