Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Just what do you mean by 'trigger low' please?

thanks

Feeling a bit down.

[CoxR]

Big flip away from any cold wintry solutions overnight in GEFS 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[IDO]

A wry smile after watching a rather boring GFS 06z run with HP domination, supported by the mean, that the op was an outlier, coldest solution at D6:

The mean uppers barely dropping below 0c! The D13 mean for UK is similar to the 0z but maybe reinforcing that mean high on the latest run:

I am not hopeful that the pattern can shift west enough for us to benefit from the trough(s) dropping to the east, so based on current output, inter and x-model, there is little comfort for snow lovers pre-Feb.

 

[Ali1977]

Not many to cold ENS to choose from but the control looks good, as do a few others!! Even I’m giving up on Jan, it’s probably a great time to have a week off from model watching to be fair!! 

[emmett garland]

Sweet mercy why can't this be the  late June models 

[Don]

12 hours ago, IanT said:

It’s only the second week of January. Surely a little early for “winter is over”, especially with some powerful features in play elsewhere on our side of the northern hemisphere..!?

Didn't say winter was over, but it wouldn't be good if the high pressure slips south as that type of pattern is difficult to break out of and by then it will be mid to late January.

Edited January 13, 2022 by Don

[bluearmy]

Just an observation- we have seen many periods modelled with dumbelling Atlantic ridges and systems surfing around the top and dropping somewhere into Europe 

my recollection is that they rarely last more than two cycles, irrelevant to what the week 2 modelling shows ….

so if we are to see that pattern verify, we need to try and work out what’s going to follow as it’s likely it will come sooner rather than later …beyond the 23rd I suspect we will see a different solution take over 

[Tim Bland]

Pray for the control  

[damianslaw]

29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just an observation- we have seen many periods modelled with dumbelling Atlantic ridges and systems surfing around the top and dropping somewhere into Europe 

my recollection is that they rarely last more than two cycles, irrelevant to what the week 2 modelling shows ….

so if we are to see that pattern verify, we need to try and work out what’s going to follow as it’s likely it will come sooner rather than later …beyond the 23rd I suspect we will see a different solution take over 

One of two options most likely:

1. It ridges further west and we pull in a cold NW flow and frontal features.

2. It sinks south and the Atlantic rolls in but probably half-hearted.

Equal chances of both.

 

 

29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

 

 

 

Edited January 13, 2022 by damianslaw

[syed2878]

Well another day and another models ball first if I may say so The pattern we are currently in at the moment would be very good for the summer however for cold and snow this is as boring as it gets for the next 10 day or so there is nothing interesting on the models in my opinion let’s hope we can break out of this current pattern sooner rather than later we do however had hard frost over last two nights and even some fog.

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Just an observation- we have seen many periods modelled with dumbelling Atlantic ridges and systems surfing around the top and dropping somewhere into Europe 

my recollection is that they rarely last more than two cycles, irrelevant to what the week 2 modelling shows ….

so if we are to see that pattern verify, we need to try and work out what’s going to follow as it’s likely it will come sooner rather than later …beyond the 23rd I suspect we will see a different solution take over 

I tend to agree with that overall view ba, also there are VERY tiny moves on movement in the ECMWF 500 mb anomaly charts, westward, not really showing on NOAA so far. They MAY be the start of a change in trough and ridge positions? I say, maybe. 

[Cold Winter Night]

Strange model watching days.
As foggy as the current weather. Just as the sun could appear any time ("Do I see some blue above me?"), but it's uncertain if it will, colder charts could appear any time, but it's uncertain if they will.

The EPS ensemble doesn't indicate much of a new direction in the reliable unfortunately, other than the NE trough diving deeper into Southeastern Europe later on, around 240h, causing some separation between the two tPV lobes.

In the extended there are hints of the Atlantic ridge filling in that gap to the North, and lower heights to our South, but not more than hints right now.

For now the majority of members don't bring real cold on the surface in our part of the world before day 15. Flatter clusters are a small minority now.

We are in a pattern that could flip to colder outcomes more easily than a zonal pattern though, it doesn't take giants steps for that to happen, because we have Atlantic amplification and a stretched PV. Let's hope the output will surprise us in the coming days.

[Battleground Snow]

Not much to add to the discussion for the near term, dry sunny and scenic for the next 5-7 days. We could do with that 2nd ESB storm tracking further west to eek out more amplification downstream.

Longer term the AO (gfs) is not looking to go as negative as the last few days had suggested, we really need it to with a mid lat high just drifting about

MJO ECM at sigma -2 in phase 8 on the latest RMM update doesn't seem to be helping again either, although there is a 8 or 9 day lag on this.

GFS VP200 filtered forecast sees it in phase 8/1 over the next 2 weeks.

The only positive is we are not locked in a rampant zonal pattern, and a high can migrate North at relatively short notice,

Gefs ensembles offer a little glimmer way out, but have to say it has been poor the last month, always over amplifying in FI.

Icon overnight and UKMO weren't bad, especially the icon, you can see a nice negative AO development there.

Let's see what it throws out now, the run is just starting. 

Edited January 13, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[NewEra21]

The only faint hope I have atm is that we all remember during that failed xmas cold spell, the models a week or so out had HP in total control with what looked to be set in stone with such consistency run upon run. And we all know that didn't turn out to be the case, hell the HP lost control over us in just a few runs out of nowhere. 

So here's hoping this HP drifts further N/NW in future runs. Not the most likely outcome, but its all I can cling to currently.

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Just an observation- we have seen many periods modelled with dumbelling Atlantic ridges and systems surfing around the top and dropping somewhere into Europe 

my recollection is that they rarely last more than two cycles, irrelevant to what the week 2 modelling shows ….

so if we are to see that pattern verify, we need to try and work out what’s going to follow as it’s likely it will come sooner rather than later …beyond the 23rd I suspect we will see a different solution take over 

Agree and the surface nicely cooled were we to get a cold incursion post the block.

[baggielad]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Just an observation- we have seen many periods modelled with dumbelling Atlantic ridges and systems surfing around the top and dropping somewhere into Europe 

my recollection is that they rarely last more than two cycles, irrelevant to what the week 2 modelling shows ….

so if we are to see that pattern verify, we need to try and work out what’s going to follow as it’s likely it will come sooner rather than later …beyond the 23rd I suspect we will see a different solution take over 

Remember before the models started churning out the more festive, snowier charts before Christmas, they were indicating a long  anticyclonic period.

[Cambrian]

This is a reasonable pattern for mid-January if we don’t mind waiting a while. It would be very surprising if we’re still under the same high pressure at the end of the month. As long as the mid Atlantic stays blocked, the subsequent development when the high eventually leaves the UK and Ireland should hold reasonable prospects for some more notable wintry weather, probably either from the north or northwest. 

Since the operational runs of the main models are all so resolute in their consistency for high pressure for the next 10 days, which as enjoyable as it is outside might be deemed to be a bit boring, we should allow ourselves a day 11 chart, this one from the 0z JMA operational run. Good uppers too.

 

If we bring it back a day to day 10, and then compare the JMA op with the 0z ECM op for 240h, we can see straight away how much flatter the ECM is. If we look at the ECM ensembles spread though, the main ambiguity is around the GIN corridor, where the PV trough drops on the JMA. Both models have a shallow Azores low developed by day 10, the important difference being in the heights and extent of the ridging to the north of that. 
JMA / ECM

  

Possible route ahead for day 10/11? It would liven things up a bit, but I doubt it. Something like this may well be a plausible route towards the end of the month though. 

[IanT]

16 hours ago, Don said:

If that happens, winter will be a goner but great for those wanting an early spring (which isn't me!!)

 

15 hours ago, IanT said:

It’s only the second week of January. Surely a little early for “winter is over”, especially with some powerful features in play elsewhere on our side of the northern hemisphere..!?

 

2 hours ago, Don said:

Didn't say winter was over, but it wouldn't be good if the high pressure slips south as that type of pattern is difficult to break out of and by then it will be mid to late January.

Errrr..... 

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, baggielad said:

Remember before the models started churning out the more festive, snowier charts before Christmas, they were indicating a long  anticyclonic period.

Neither of which went very well! 

[alexisj9]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Neither of which went very well! 

That I think was the point, the extended anticyclonic period now might not be right either. Anyway, on wards and upwards hopefully. Fingers crossed the high moves west, or north east at some point. Not showing just yet, but anomalies earlier, where showing spread over scandi.

[Lukesluckybunch]

centre of the low at 54h slightly further west on 12z

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

centre of the low at 54h slightly further west on 12z

Love the commitment... Maybe this tiny change will expand with exponential divergence to narina by 198 .

[Battleground Snow]

Not quite enough amplification on the 144 UKMO

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Not quite enough amplification on the 144 UKMO

its not too bad a northerly flow at least,but yes got toppler written all over it

[Gowon]

Where's this going?