Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[blizzard81]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

it didnt turn out how i thought,high sits to close by doesnt go north

It never looked like going north to me. Lets see what tomorrow brings..... Big sigh! Lol. My hopes are fast going south. A bit like next weeks high pressure

[MJB]

I wonder if this will budge NW to allow the East to enter the UK

[swfc]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

I wonder if this will budge NW to allow the East to enter the UK

Do you mean move NE to Scandinavia ie easterly? 

[Don]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

It never looked like going north to me. Lets see what tomorrow brings..... Big sigh! Lol. My hopes are fast going south. A bit like next weeks high pressure

If that happens, winter will be a goner but great for those wanting an early spring (which isn't me!!)

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 There's not a huge amount in it at 240, but still the 12z just a bit better for me, more fragmented vortex, well aware though of course that the 384 chart could show a screaming ne flow with -12c whistling all the way down to Cornwall.

In my eyes, that's quite a big difference. 

[tight isobar]

behave- we know where this is going!!!

[PiscesStar]

7 minutes ago, MJB said:

I wonder if this will budge NW to allow the East to enter the UK

In other words, to a more Favourable position... Contrary in the main ToThe position it so frequently ends up in time and again!! Fingers crossed folks it does... Ticking clock... 

Edited January 12, 2022 by PiscesStar

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, MJB said:

I wonder if this will budge NW to allow the East to enter the UK

Of course it will. Its the pub run. 

[swfc]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

behave- we know where this is going!!!

Yep off it goes

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

behave- we know where this is going!!!

Lol. Pub run nonsense. Nothing more. Nothing less. Bless it. 

[MJB]

GFS never lets you down

[blizzard81]

The pub run has brewers droop. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

The pub run has brewers droop. 

is this run really that bad?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I’m drawing a line now.. it’s late January/ early February for anything of note.. and that alone needs to be seen in evolvement form!!.. it’s turning out to be a so near yet so far winter!.. it’s completely frustrating!!!!!!!

You must be frustrated Tight..its not like you to get downbeat. But I do feel your anguish...my remedy is simply to just laugh it off and wait for better model runs. I've noticed solar activity being brought up again! Not so sure,it's not stopping parts of the states from being hit with severe wintry episodes! I think to many of us look to blame every possible factor when we don't get what we want in this country.

I'm now starting to doubt positive teleconnections also,this year they've all been stacked favourably for cold yet have so far failed to deliver! But I've noticed how the met have never spoken about a cold winter! And it kind of makes me feel that they've been influenced by AGW scuppering it! And perhaps that could be a dangerous game to play for future winters because GW will not scupper ever cold snap in future winters...infact we could still have extreme weather events brought about by it.

Word if caution to those already saying next year will be worse due to much poorer teleconnections! Really? It seems to me that very favourable signals can be easily overriden by a strong Vortex...even if it fails to connect to the strat!  So on the back of poor teleconnections next year we could end up with an almighty strat split and that will render all those poor signals just as useless! 

So I would say...we still have time this year...a lot of cold air will be in place even come March which could deliver big time especially early to mid month....and certainly do not be stressing over a worser set up next year folks...because a major split could easily throw all that out of the window again!

We will get lucky again...things even themselves out in the end.

 

 

 

[Don]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

is this run really that bad?

It's not great for the UK!

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

is this run really that bad?

For a pub run....... Yep. 

[PiscesStar]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

It's not great for the UK!

Yes, gfs shoves the cold and snow down to Greece  

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

For a pub run....... Yep. 

the theme is still the same from the 12z attempted reloads from the northwest..problem is how many chances do we need! haha but i think the trend is decent! 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

You must be frustrated Tight..its not like you to get downbeat. But I do feel your anguish...my remedy is simply to just laugh it off and wait for better model runs. I've noticed solar activity being brought up again! Not so sure,it's not stopping parts of the states from being hit with severe wintry episodes! I think to many of us look to blame every possible factor when we don't get what we want in this country.

I'm now starting to doubt positive teleconnections also,this year they've all been stacked favourably for cold yet have so far failed to deliver! But I've noticed how the met have never spoken about a cold winter! And it kind of makes me feel that they've been influenced by AGW scuppering it! And perhaps that could be a dangerous game to play for future winters because GW will not scupper ever cold snap in future winters...infact we could still have extreme weather events brought about by it.

Word if caution to those already saying next year will be worse due to much poorer teleconnections! Really? It seems to me that very favourable signals can be easily overriden by a strong Vortex...even if it fails to connect to the strat!  So on the back of poor teleconnections next year we could end up with an almighty strat split and that will render all those poor signals just as useless! 

So I would say...we still have time this year...a lot of cold air will be in place even come March which could deliver big time especially early to mid month....and certainly do not be stressing over a worser set up next year folks...because a major split could easily throw all that out of the window again!

We will get lucky again...things even themselves out in the end.

 

 

 

Just a note on solar activity - It has next to no/minimal impact on the winters of North America. Predominantly North West Europe is the region that suffers in terms of winter synoptics. All to do with the northern arm of the atlantic jet. 

[MJB]

No it's not a bad run at Luke - it's dry average temps , sometimes below average . Frost and Fog will be around, as long as the HP is close by we are still in the game for it to settle in a favourable position .

Not a good run would be long fetch SWlies with temps at 12-14c overcast and damp.

[E17boy]

Hi peeps

Final one from me today

to be honest as soon as I saw this Azores high get on the scene something inside was screaming no no can’t have this had a bad feeling from the start. If it’s fog and some frost you like then the coming weather pattern may appeal to you. However for the snow lovers the distress sirens have been ramping up. There is no way out of this, this high is going to at least take 10 to 15 days of our winter away from us.

I know am in the thoughts that I would have preferred a mobile pattern rather than being stuck under this doom and gloom where things are not moving. At least with the mobile pattern there is better chance of finding an opportunity for colder incursions and we don’t have to wait on days end for things to change.

night night all 

[jellybaby1969]

Until meto and ECM show a cold snowy spell at +96 we can basically call time.

[damianslaw]

8 minutes ago, jellybaby1969 said:

Until meto and ECM show a cold snowy spell at +96 we can basically call time.

Recent Meto updates do hint that heights may advect further north and west to at least bring some colder air from the NW in time.. think last week.. nothing exceptional but perfectly plausible indeed I'd say likely. 

[Pixel]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Recent Meto updates do hint that heights may advect further north and west to at least bring some colder air from the NW in time.. think last week.. nothing exceptional but perfectly plausible indeed I'd say likely. 

Ok since it's quiet and I've been sitting on this question for years..

A lot of knowledgable folk on here talk about "heights" and "low heights" ... is this a very high pressure system and lower high pressure system or are the low heights a low pressure system?

Please, in simple terms put me out of my misery - Thanks in advance 

 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

good news guys the op is a huge mild outlier!..past the 22nd

Edited January 12, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
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