Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[northwestsnow]

And Eastern coasts peppered with snow showers..

It's mentioned as an outside chance in todays meto update so one to keep an eye on perhaps.. 

Not convinced about ukmo 144 but GFS gets the thumbs up.

[Nick F]

Another phantom northerly to chase next week from 12z GFS? 

This will be reliant on another ESB storm, this time affecting states along the eastern seaboard with snow and ice (rather staying offshore like the one prior to it) moving N then NW towards Baffin Islands rather than NE towards Greenland - otherwise we don't get the amplification over Greenland.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Another phantom northerly to chase next week from 12z GFS? 

This will be reliant on another ESB storm, this time affecting states along the eastern seaboard with snow and ice (rather staying offshore like the one prior to it) moving N then NW towards Baffin Islands rather than NE towards Greenland - otherwise we don't get the amplification over Greenland.

What about the vortex on this run though which is far more supportive of allowing heights to build…

[northwestsnow]

Very nice !!

[jules216]

Does anyone have model correlation stats for day 6? gFS is so much different then flat UKMO but its less reliable isnt it?

[Ali1977]

Another amplification coming at day 9

[Paul]

1 minute ago, jules216 said:

Does anyone have model correlation stats for day 6? gFS is so much different then flat UKMO but its less reliable isnt it?

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/acc/

 

[Nick F]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

What about the vortex on this run though which is far more supportive of allowing heights to build…

Lets hope it's not the day 7/8 curse of the GFS phantom northerly, Monday/yesterday we had a northerly for Mon/Tues next week, today we have one for Wednesday/Thursday next week.

[Dunstable Snow]

Just now, Nick F said:

Lets hope it's not the day 7/8 curse of the GFS phantom northerly, Monday/yesterday we had a northerly for Mon/Tues next week, today we have one for Wednesday/Thursday next week.

It certainly feels like that doesn’t it - very frustrating! 

[Nick F]

3 minutes ago, Dunstable Snow said:

It certainly feels like that doesn’t it - very frustrating! 

00z EC similarly had a northerly plunge Thursday next week, but like the one we were hoping over the UK for early next week, it's Scandi bound instead. Has GFS learnt its lesson or will it tease us again, or maybe it will come off? Whatever happens, be sure we'll chase anything showing from the models that may deliver snow to the bitter end!

[Battleground Snow]

27 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Another phantom northerly to chase next week from 12z GFS? 

This will be reliant on another ESB storm, this time affecting states along the eastern seaboard with snow and ice (rather staying offshore like the one prior to it) moving N then NW towards Baffin Islands rather than NE towards Greenland - otherwise we don't get the amplification over Greenland.

Some ensembles are still not ready to give up the first northerly,

Model volatility will be high I imagine until both storms have been resolved.

Updated AO forecast is an improvement, I think we need assistance from the Arctic to help the Atlantic ridges overcome and split the trop vortex for anything sustained

Edited January 12, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[Lukesluckybunch]

brilliant run this,cold or very cold up to 300 rinse and repeat scene!..although its the gfs and the fun starts around 180!?would be nice to have some backing from the ECM

[tight isobar]

4 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Based on both curren output- and you’re assumptions!. As you’d probably know our weather is 99:9% of the time a direct clause of what happens both at the eastern seaboard- into the Atlantic. These areas are of massive miss- modelling right now, and if you note both focus, and possibilities of outcomes.. you’ll note there’s an- awful lot riding on it. So I’ll personally await model deciphering on this function atm... b4 making rock solid claims going into even next week

Until there is more notable agreement, I’m sitting on the fence- as above. Unless tonight’s ec-12z sways in a big way! The eastern seaboard is everything- or nothing for us.. and will -line up the nxt two weeks of driven weather ..@storm frequenters!

Edited January 12, 2022 by tight isobar

[geordiekev]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Until there is more notable agreement, I’m sitting on the fence- as above. Unless tonight’s ec-12z sways in a big way!

Yep, so much variation in models within short timescales, the cut off lows modelled off east sea board aiding in pushing up Highs to favourable positions do seem to be watered down as we approach d4/5. Too much uncertainty for any calls.

Enjoy the dryness & chases for now

[tight isobar]

Although it’s getting a little like playing kiss chase as a kid.. chasing ya favourite bird - blindfolded and with a fractured ankle

[northwestsnow]

Hoping to see a bit more Atlantic amplification on EC det this evening.

Ukmo 168 isn't quite there but with  a tweak or two ....

Edited January 12, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Sawel]

18 minutes ago, Paul said:

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/acc/

 

The verification stats held at ECMWF are much more comprehensive and includes many more models which we don't get to see like the Korean Met Agency, BOM (Australia) and a few others. 

https://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/850_z

Also, you can choose which models you want or don't want to compare so you can compare verification stats from all the models or just a couple if you want. Not only that, but you can see the average verification over 3 months as well as monthly.

Oh, and another very useful feature is that you can compare verification for the northern hemisphere as a whole, or, North America only, Europe only, North Pole only and other areas!

Hopefully people will take the time to go on and find out for themselves which models typically verify the best.

Some myths which need to be nipped in the bud regarding verification at the 120hrs - 144hrs range...

Myth 1 - The GFS is one of the big three.

Fact - The GEM had pretty significant improvements a few years back and typically verifies better than the GFS. The GFS has not been getting significant enough improvements over the years to keep pace. Just ask the likes of Ryan Maue over in the US! 

Myth 2 - The GFS is an American model and therefore, has a better handle on modelling the US better than the ECM. 

Fact - The GFS typically models no area of the world better than the ECM.

Myth 3 - GFS handles Greenland heights better

Fact - Although you can't specifically select Greenland, you can select areas like the North Pole. The ECM typically models every area better than the GFS.

 

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hoping to see a bit more Atlantic amplification on EC det this evening.

Ukmo 168 isn't quite there but with  a tweet or two ....

That's not bad considering how poor 144 looked.

ECM middle ground later?

[winterof79]

Is the UKMO 168 heading in the right direction or have i lost the plot

[E17boy]

Hi Peeps  

I know a lot of us are worried about the current output, but just to calm down the nerves we have still got time to get a proper nationwide cold snap and snow.

Going by what we have been through this winter weather wise so far many of us will be happy to even get a few days of snowey weather so here are my calculations.

Even if the next 2 weeks after this week are taken out (taking into account the mess we are in with this Azores high) this is worst case that takes us to 31st Jan, which still leaves us a good 5 weeks to get a pattern change in our favour taking us to 6th March . I know some will say snow can come in April as well but I have discounted the time after 6 th March as days become longer and so does the suns strength so it will be harder for snow to stick around. However we may still be lucky to get a day or two of lying snow until April, but the severity gets less as we go through to spring. 
 

So from above 31st Jan to 6th March 5 weeks and we are asking for a weeks of snowed weather. It can still happen we have still got time. So chin up peeps I am sure we will get there eventually. 
 

The wait goes on

 

regards

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

That's not bad considering how poor 144 looked.

ECM middle ground later?

It's a toppler for sure ..but with a little nudge west of the pattern it could produce a potent cold shot..

I've felt there is scope for repeated topplers for a while ,obviously @jules216 is in a prime location for some very wintry blasts as it stands...

I've no idea what EC will produce but hoping for the best. 

Edited January 12, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Anthony Burden]

56 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Another phantom northerly to chase next week from 12z GFS? 

This will be reliant on another ESB storm, this time affecting states along the eastern seaboard with snow and ice (rather staying offshore like the one prior to it) moving N then NW towards Baffin Islands rather than NE towards Greenland - otherwise we don't get the amplification over Greenland.

Hi Nick,what do you feel the odds are on this second attempt.

[northwestsnow]

FWIW UKMO 12Z 168 is far more amplified than this mornings GEM.

It will be interesting to see if GEM changes track this evening..

Edited January 12, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It's a toppler for sure ..but with a little nudge west of the pattern it could produce a potent cold shot..

I've felt there is scope for repeated topplers for a while ,obviously @jules216 is in a prime location for some very wintry blasts as it stands...

I've no idea what EC will produce but hoping for the best. 

heights dont seem as strong pushing up at 168 ,but i dont think it will be toppler..lets hope for somthing at least half decent on ECM

[swfc]

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