Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[goosey007]

29 minutes ago, booferking said:

GFS moves the Northerly run to run 2000km in 24hrs cannon folder

I have to agree GFS been as worst as its ever been for consistency this winter.......its well behind the euros as it stands !! 

[Battleground Snow]

It's quite comical how over half the ensembles still have the cold blast at t144.

GFS op was near the top of the pack just for Info,

I think the ship has definitely sailed for the 18th, but if it's wrong early on it may affect the later frames more.

The best I can offer at the moment is that an negative AO looks likely, which may present us with more chances down the line

Edited January 12, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[feb1991blizzard]

Must admit these NH patterns keep presenting their selves (very decent ones for the date), you would normally say that at some point before mid March a potent cold spell is almost inevitable, but given recent years i will stop short of that, i will instead suggest that the actual model watching season will be interesting for the duration.

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

A YouTube Video below form Tuesday demonstrates the problems even for the US forecasters with the current weather pattern over the US.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnUF4O1t0dU

 

Skip the adverts there is then about 5 mins which demonstrates that they have little faith in any model at the moment.

Suggesting it could be thursday or even friday before they have a handle on it.

So how can we expect to know what is going to happen here 2500miles downstream!!

MIA

I’m glad someone posted this- and yes it’s model pantomime all round atm. With an unusual array of ifs/ buts/ maybes.. things could look and feel vastly different to what’s being modelled right now .. by this time nxt week!

[Laurence]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Thanks to BT, I've hardly been on here much, these past few days. But, one thing I have noticed is the sheer number of cherry-picked perturbations being posted. Talk about building our own garden paths!

More like crazy paving

[PiscesStar]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Must admit these NH patterns keep presenting their selves (very decent ones for the date), you would normally say that at some point before mid March a potent cold spell is almost inevitable, but given recent years i will stop short of that, i will instead suggest that the actual model watching season will be interesting for the duration.

Very very wise indeed. Me too. However, I remain optimistic that the cards as it were will fall in our favour at SOME POINT 

[northwestsnow]

These repeated toppler attempts are still seeing energy digging in to Europe.

That helps.

[PiscesStar]

8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I’m glad someone posted this- and yes it’s model pantomime all round atm. With an unusual array of ifs/ buts/ maybes.. things could look and feel vastly different to what’s being modelled right now .. by this time nxt week!

Yes cries of "its behind you!" ("PRE christmas shenanigans that eft us with a hefty Dollop of egg on our faces) and hopefully look forward to subsequent runs where GFS shows us the high preferably positioned for a happy ending and lots of encores of a wintry nature... 

[tight isobar]

10 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

Yes cries of "its behind you!" ("PRE christmas shenanigans that eft us with a hefty Dollop of egg on our faces) and hopefully look forward to subsequent runs where GFS shows us the high preferably positioned for a happy ending and lots of encores of a wintry nature... 

The proposed USA storm track and trace.. will have our own overheads. Looking v- different.. come early / mid nxt week.. via flattening the seaboard pattern- or indeed adding back lashing Amplification... both which could flip model Synoptics on their heads!.. we wait and see?!!...

Edited January 12, 2022 by tight isobar

[North-Easterly Blast]

6 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Starting to wonder just how anticyclonic this January could turn out. January 1997 was a pretty anticyclonic month

January 2006 was also a pretty anticyclonic month.

[northwestsnow]

Into FI 6z brings a potent toppler with snow showers and very cold minima for the east.. 

You can see the onset as that brutal Arctic air moves south...

later the same day !

Yes it's GFS ,yes it's FI , but even a mid Atlantic high can produce short blasts ..

 

[Day 10]

21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

These repeated toppler attempts are still seeing energy digging in to Europe.

That helps.

Hi NWS, my thoughts too. I've just posted similar in our thread, I feel it could be a case of when not if the high ridges far enough to become cut off. It feels like it's been trying all Winter, end of Jan maybe???

Edited January 12, 2022 by Nordic Freeze

[alexisj9]

33 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It's quite comical how over half the ensembles still have the cold blast at t144.

GFS op was near the top of the pack just for Info,

I think the ship has definitely sailed for the 18th, but if it's wrong early on it may affect the later frames more.

The best I can offer at the moment is that an negative AO looks likely, which may present us with more chances down the line

That tells me scatter starts during Saturday, and Sunday is even worse, I'd put fl around then at the moment.

Edited January 12, 2022 by alexisj9

[minus10]

30 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

A YouTube Video below form Tuesday demonstrates the problems even for the US forecasters with the current weather pattern over the US.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnUF4O1t0dU

 

Skip the adverts there is then about 5 mins which demonstrates that they have little faith in any model at the moment.

Suggesting it could be thursday or even friday before they have a handle on it.

So how can we expect to know what is going to happen here 2500miles downstream?!!

MIA

Very interesting. Yes it seems that the weather pattens are either just becoming more difficult to forecast/ predict even sometimes  at relatively short timescales or the models are somehow not interpreting the signals correctly. I was under the impression that all  models used the same base data as it is shared, maybe i'm wrong on that. Still find it incredible that there can be such differences at relatively short timescales as is happening...

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Nordic Freeze said:

Hi NWS, my thoughts too. I've just posted similar in our thread, I feel it could be a case of when not if the high ridges far enough to become cut off. It feels like it's been trying all Winter, end of Jan maybe???

TBH I don't think at this stage we will get a cut off high - 

But I do feel repeated toppler attempts are possible,  and a potent one not out of the question..something like 6z a possibility.

[JOPRO]

36 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Must admit these NH patterns keep presenting their selves (very decent ones for the date), you would normally say that at some point before mid March a potent cold spell is almost inevitable, but given recent years i will stop short of that, i will instead suggest that the actual model watching season will be interesting for the duration.

I Agree, i think as long as HP is hanging around over us or out to our west i think we are in with a shout at some point.

[jules216]

When was the last tíme models actually underestimated blocking then overestimated? Like 2013 or something? At this stage not only UK but also 2000km east will miss out on the northerly. Almost like Christmas where we just by about 100km managed to squeeze within cold, the model innacuracy estecially GFS has Been at its worst this winter, the whole GFS SUITE including. Model that has been the steadiest and most relistic within 7 days more often then not has Been UKMO.

[Midlands Ice Age]

18 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Very interesting. Yes it seems that the weather pattens are either just becoming more difficult to forecast/ predict even sometimes  at relatively short timescales or the models are somehow not interpreting the signals correctly. I was under the impression that all  models used the same base data as it is shared, maybe i'm wrong on that. Still find it incredible that there can be such differences at relatively short timescales as is happening...

I have now found other weather sites in the US.

Most of them go into detail about how waves of cold Arctic air from central Canada are being pulled southwards in towards the Eastern USA. Some have a greater sliding, and others such as the GFS take these colder plunges almost due south until they reach the Gulf Of Mexico. They then undergo rapid cyclogenysis with the warm air, and depending how far south they get before turning up the Eastern USA coast will determine how far they  develop and therefore their direction.  If they deepen rapidly when they get into New England they can begin to turn back into the mainland, and then they will start to circle, particularly if other lows are in the vicinity .  This then promotes/enables the Atlantic high to begin to develop.

It is apparently an unusual situation, even for the US.

GFS and its tendency to generate blown up lows will show the best/worst of the situations. 

 MIA 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Mattcoldcamp helpline calling all weather geeks in distress....dont give in hope right now...our phone lines might be down due to switchboard overload but things could still become more favourable for Winter further into the month..

We at least have some seasonal conditions right now...woke up to a stunning landscape of glistening Frost this morning and more to come this week.

Plenty of ensembles look more favourable for something more noteworthy to develop later on in the period! The models are struggling this season and even more so in the states it appears...plenty of time for Winter to still deliver just yet. A significant cold snap if one comes about will most likely appear out of thin air...its got that kind of look about it this year!

Keep the faith a little longer.

[tight isobar]

9 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Mattcoldcamp helpline calling all weather geeks in distress....dont give in hope right now...our phone lines might be down due to switchboard overload but things could still become more favourable for Winter further into the month..

We at least have some seasonal conditions right now...woke up to a stunning landscape of glistening Frost this morning and more to come this week.

Plenty of ensembles look more favourable for something more noteworthy to develop later on in the period! The models are struggling this season and even more so in the states it appears...plenty of time for Winter to still deliver just yet. A significant cold snap if one comes about will most likely appear out of thin air...its got that kind of look about it this year!

Keep the faith a little longer.

with ya on that -@ short term- even very short term notice. I’m expecting a preety big flip nxt 48-72 hrs.. with beneficial outcomes.. or indeed otherwise. I think it’s now unquestionable!. 

[Staffmoorlands]

14 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

with ya on that -@ short term- even very short term notice. I’m expecting a preety big flip nxt 48-72 hrs.. with beneficial outcomes.. or indeed otherwise. I think it’s now unquestionable!. 

Back in the real world, cloud and drizzle is likely to feature in the forecasts from Saturday with temperatures not far from the seasonal norm.  By early next week we will be wishing for a more mobile pattern!

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Back in the real world, cloud and drizzle is likely to feature in the forecasts from Saturday with temperatures not far from the seasonal norm.  By early next week we will be wishing for a more mobile pattern!

For once I have to agree with you

[IDO]

The forecast pattern for the next 16 days is pretty nice for cold and snow with five troughs diving to mid-lat into Europe. Sadly the UK is too far west to benefit from what could be a snowy spell for much of Europe. We do get some colder uppers but they are aligned with the high rather than the trough. 

D1-8> D8-16> 

The pieces are just not with us this winter so far; very frustrating as it is a reasonable setup bearing in mind minimal HLB'ing.

[Cold Winter Night]

Almost this whole winter/cold season so far we have not seen pronounced Euro-Atlantic weather regimes.
Following the ensemble in the regime format, the output (and eventual reality) have not strayed far from the centre.

Up to day 8, this remains the case, this time leaning NAO-, with heights lacking the latitude into Greenland and extending into NW-Europe too much to make it a greater amplitude NAO- regime.

Still heights are higher than usual in the North Atlantic and Southern Greenland and there is a continuous low anomaly near the Azores. The result is a mid latitude block. Here's what that pattern looks like on the EPS mean anomaly chart:

That's still a good starting point.
As you look at all the different model runs, there are many attempts to ridge further North in the Atlantic at many different lead times.
The move of the tPV core to the East we've been looking at for a while now is in the 24-48h range, and will happen. Now things depend on the extent of its moving back to the West.

A couple of days ago, it seemed that all of it would return to Canada, but the clusters 192h-240h show that a more extensive chunk of vortex might remain near Russia as a trough.

With the North American tPV perhaps going a bit further South, squeezed between Atlantic and East Canadian ridging, a split, (or semi-split, is that a thing?) between the two tPV cores is not outside the range of possibilities, creating some room for height rises to our North. The extended clusters 264h-360h have shown this the last couple of runs. This morning's GFS 6z FI would fit in with these clusters.

I agree with what some others have said, with the current pattern, a flip to a colder setup for us is not completely out of reach. We remain in the game, especially into February.

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Back in the real world, cloud and drizzle is likely to feature in the forecasts from Saturday with temperatures not far from the seasonal norm.  By early next week we will be wishing for a more mobile pattern!

Based on both curren output- and you’re assumptions!. As you’d probably know our weather is 99:9% of the time a direct clause of what happens both at the eastern seaboard- into the Atlantic. These areas are of massive miss- modelling right now, and if you note both focus, and possibilities of outcomes.. you’ll note there’s an- awful lot riding on it. So I’ll personally await model deciphering on this function atm... b4 making rock solid claims going into even next week