Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[tight isobar]

Goes missing- but now has force and fold of heights.. and we’ll start continental draw... by way of evolution!.. so .. what’s not to like?

[Kasim Awan]

GFS back east. 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Goes missing- but now has force and fold of heights.. and we’ll start continental draw... by way of evolution!.. so .. what’s not to like?

Uppers are now green where before we were deep blue probably about 10 degrees warmer on this run… 

[That ECM]

Doh. Ah well. 

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Uppers are now green where before we were deep blue probably about 10 degrees warmer on this run… 

And they will be- as much as the HP cell is absent- then inbound- there is plenty from as early as 136 to consider!..

Edited January 11, 2022 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

We need the classic rump of some sort of shack down- via ALL raw @ 144 hrs .. b4 anyone can make realistic assumptions!- and that we don’t have.. but will do soon I’m sure.. for better- worse!

[sheikhy]

Same old story from the crappy gfs!!!!back to square one!although if you believe the ecm we were always at square one anyway!!!!

[weathercold]

Game over - time to move on here sadly.

[That ECM]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Same old story from the crappy gfs!!!!back to square one!although if you believe the ecm we were always at square one anyway!!!!

Let’s not lord the ecm tho.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

We need the classic rump of some sort of shack down- via ALL raw @ 144 hrs .. b4 anyone can make realistic assumptions!- and that we don’t have.. but will do soon I’m sure.. for better- worse!

The door is closing on this one unfortunately so 'worse' is coming. 

[tight isobar]

Example.. the pressure pattern takes yet another turn.. but we’ll squeeze likely eye watering Synoptics.. in the way of caa- into southern most England on this run going forward!

[TSNWK]

Colder uppers over northern Tunisia than us this run… huge amount of co”d tap into if the high can creep back upwards 

[davehsug]

25 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

Reinforcing a good deal of what many others have said,  the downstream effect of the mode of exit of the system from Canada places day 6 as the confidence crux for us, and it’s no clearer following the 12z runs today than it was after those of yesterday. There is so much ambiguity at the 144h timeframe, it’s hard to look much further ahead with even any small sense of surety. 

Here are the ECM and GFS ensemble means and spreads at 144h.

 
 

 

Both have a deep Scandinavian trough with the zone of greatest spread in the North Sea / Norwegian Sea areas. Both show wider spread over Greenland too. It’s still feasible that we could see greater amplification into southern Greenland and the Scandinavian trough further west come next Monday.

Also, for that matter, the markedly lower spreads over Iceland and western Russia show where the PV and associated troughing is much less  likely to visit.

Incidentally, have a look at that ghoulish monster face screaming at us from the Canadian lobe of the PV. It’s all gone a bit Scooby Doo there, hasn’t it?! No liability accepted for any accidents caused by anyone rushing to the bathroom after I pointed that one out. 

At this stage, for early next week, there’s still a wide range of possibilities to be resolved- it’s still most likely going to be a chilly high for us with a slack northerly supply, but there is also still some surprisingly resilient potential for a bit more of a direct northerly punch from the trough - seasonal weather for early January either way, and with the swings back and for, it could well take a couple more days to resolve. 

Fascinating model runs today and the pub run still to come!

I always find it strange that the Northern Pacific doesn't seem to suffer from the same model uncertainty as the Atlantic.

[booferking]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Goes missing- but now has force and fold of heights.. and we’ll start continental draw... by way of evolution!.. so .. what’s not to like?

It's another missed opportunity and winter is ticking by its snow most of us crave on here it will be February before you know it the pv in is to strong once again, why is the pv so strong there because that's were the bulk of the cold air is this year feeding the pv it's been like that all winter and its a winter killer for us.

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, weathercold said:

Game over - time to move on here sadly.

How yabased that?? What because the bigger crowd shouts if the 18z folds itsa fail!!?? - we cannot get a definitive mark point even @144 for cell/- vortex/ and placement... c,mon

[Kasim Awan]

Very blocked setup but this time it's centered over the UK.

[northwestsnow]

18z looks mainly dry and chilly..

Still seeing lots of frosty mornings on that run out to day 8...

[goosey007]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Same old story from the crappy gfs!!!!back to square one!although if you believe the ecm we were always at square one anyway!!!!

isnt this pub run though ..................GFS will be back to raging northerly 

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Example.. the pressure pattern takes yet another turn.. but we’ll squeeze likely eye watering Synoptics.. in the way of caa- into southern most England on this run going forward!

Not on this run cold air backing eastwards… but I’ll take a peep in the morning. Night 

[weathercold]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

How yabased that?? What because the bigger crowd shouts if the 18z folds itsa fail!!?? - we cannot get a definitive mark point even @144 for cell/- vortex/ and placement... c,mon

I’d like to know what you’re seeing here - looks a bust to me unfortunately 

[blizzard81]

I think tomorrow will be the final decider. Like I said, the door is closing fast but the latch hasn't clicked just yet. 

Edited January 11, 2022 by blizzard81

[Cuban Zebra]

Unbelievable!! There are some on here that are going to wind up in an early grave! I was told a long time ago to compare runs to runs, ie. 12z to 12z etc..  that way you don’t get drawn into madness every 6 hours comparing runs!! Wait till we’ve seen tomorrow’s 6z and 12z before writing the winter off!!

[E17boy]

Hi peeps,

Hope you all are well, been a rainy dismal day here in NE London. Drizzle and low cloud made it feel depressing.

Anyway back to the models and weather. Some of you may remember from my last post a couple of days ago I pointed out that I was not seeing anything on the horizon that would be what us coldies are waiting for (ie widespread snow). Where do my thoughts stand today, unfortunately there is no change that I am seeing at least for the next 2 weeks. My take is yes high pressure will become a dominant feature together with fog and frost. Temperatures may well be suppressed where fog lingers for the longest maybe some spots just struggling above freezing, however I do expect most parts to be higher than this. 
I am again going to be very honest and to the point , at the moment I still don’t see any sign of this high moving to a favourable location to bring us the bitter cold winds and snow we are waiting for, and I will come and hold my hands up if I am wrong in this for the coming 2 weeks. I know this is not what some will want to hear but deep in my heart I have the feeling this azores high is going to kill the next couple of weeks of January, the feeling is a sinking feeling to the south .

I am taking a big gamble and this is my guess that the rest of this month will not produce anything worthwhile, apart from floating phantom northerlies, which I think will be false hopes.

Some of the models keep chopping and changing but I think the high being more south than north looks more likely.

Which finally will leave us with February to rescue winter. At this moment of time it would not be favourable to make any assessments on what this month will hold. The waiting goes on. 
 

stay safe all

regards 

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, weathercold said:

I’d like to know what you’re seeing here - looks a bust to me unfortunately 

This run looks bust, as In not like the last run, but the changes on the Eastern sea board only need to be 100/200 miles or so and the effects on our area can be huge. The chances are slim, very slim, but the overnight runs may well improve .

Edited January 11, 2022 by Ali1977

[markw2680]

Game over? Christ the models can’t agree at all on the earlier stages let alone the later, until they can agree early on then nobody knows. Game over is soooo over used on here it’s ridiculous