Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[tight isobar]

Definitely gaining via westward punt.. we can only see where we go nxt frames

[Battleground Snow]

144 ECM so close,

Time for improvements still. Glad it didnt follow icon

[TSNWK]

A shift towards gfs but not enough and I suspect failed the tipping point that allowed heights to keep building on gfs from this time. So just need to see where this high settles in now.

[supernova]

Favourable correction Westwards from ECM but pretty consistent with previous run and nothing to prop the heights I suspect. GFS vs pretty much the rest of the world usually doesn't end well but time for all to change and at least it won't be wet/mild. Onwards we go. MRN.

[Staffmoorlands]

Miserable ECM tonight with cloudy damp weather heading in after 144hrs.

[Cheshire Freeze]

We’re miles away from a cold and unstable Nly this evening. GFS closest but even then the heights are as such that it’s cold and frosty rather than cold and snowy.

Would be nice to see just one snow day this winter (last and only one was in November here).

[Catacol]

7 hours ago, Johnp said:

Is it me, or has Catacol posted a few rather downbeat posts recently and then almost immediately the charts have flipped to showing something much colder?

If so, can he please keep doing it?

Haha - if that tactic will work then I’m willing to try anything! In that spirit - ECM for 144h has real potential…at least it would have if we weren’t looking at falling GLAAM and a dominant vortex. But it’s a chart that is pleasing to the eye nonetheless. A bit of a momentum kick and we would have the perfect wave eddy to pull in an easterly.

Unfortunately it won’t happen that way.

Reverse psychology fingers firmly crossed now. Cmon models - prove me wrong….

[Ali1977]

ECM isn’t good at T192, not much more to say really!! 

[That ECM]

7 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Miserable ECM tonight with cloudy damp weather heading in after 144hrs.

It’s not the greatest but not sure about the cloudy damp bit.

[Lukesluckybunch]

wow this ECM isnt what we wanted,infact its ending up worse then 0z..its a shame because at 120 i thought them heights could have reached greenland,anyways still time for improvements

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

ECM isn’t good at T192, not much more to say really!! 

The vortex axis is all wrong, draped like a blanket across to our N, from Canada to Russia. Very hard to break given there’s little to no forcing that can break it.

[That ECM]

[tight isobar]

WEll I’m sorry- I know I’m gonna be a thorn in many sides.. but I think the ecm is weighing up here and getting it’s scales incorrect!. The way it toys and places pressure sequences are even frame by frame disorderly.. we’ll look at the ens- and also the gfs nxt suite for constructive consideration!

[January Snowstorm]

Quite clearly short term upgrades today in the 120 to 144hr mark. I wouldn't worry about the long term right now because early upgrades will define the longer range...

Finely poised and as ever could go either way. The one thing in our favour throughout is proper cold to our North and East ready to pounce!!

[sheikhy]

Am i correct in saying ecm is at least cold and frosty for england?!!!oh gosh the levels im stooping to now just to be happy to see cold and frost!!!just goes to show how bad this winter has been so far!

[Battleground Snow]

Arpege is good, 114

[Pixel]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Haha - if that tactic will work then I’m willing to try anything! In that spirit - ECM for 144h has real potential…at least it would have if we weren’t looking at falling GLAAM and a dominant vortex. But it’s a chart that is pleasing to the eye nonetheless. A bit of a momentum kick and we would have the perfect wave eddy to pull in an easterly.

Unfortunately it won’t happen that way.

Reverse psychology fingers firmly crossed now. Cmon models - prove me wrong….

Looked up GLAAM and it's a village and a municipal district of Hohenroda in Hersfeld-Rotenburg district in eastern Hesse, Germany 

While I enjoy reading the posts and learning here on Netweather TV sometimes the abbreviations et al' (and all) are difficult to learn - Is there a section for meanings I missed?  Sorry mods.. but even after all these years i still can't find it (-:

Great post Catacol BTW (by the way)   Looking forward to the influence of some strat warming late 2021 to take effect in the atmosphere above my 'neck of the woods' IMBY 

 

Doh ! (oh silly me) i didn't realise that if one places (hovers) the mouse pointer over the said abbreviation for meteorological terms... it up pops up it's meaning <faceslap and palm> emoticon - Carry on (-:

Edited January 11, 2022 by Pixel
old folk take time to see stuff

[Cold Winter Night]

Especially with differences up to 96h-120h and GFS/GEFS showing how significant those details are, it's best to await the EPS clusters instead of taking the EC Op at face value after day 5.

It took a baby step towards GFS earlier on, but later on (168h and later) it's taking the tPV back to Canada with a lot more ease than other models and the 0z HRES/EPS.

[Staffmoorlands]

11 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Am i correct in saying ecm is at least cold and frosty for england?!!!oh gosh the levels im stooping to now just to be happy to see cold and frost!!!just goes to show how bad this winter has been so far!

Frost and fog chances reduce after Saturday based on UKMO/ECM as Atlantic cloud fills our high pressure. 

[supernova]

Haven't seen any comments on GEM, probably cos it sits the high over the UK from start to finish just about. Not so flat as ECM mind.

 

Edited January 11, 2022 by supernova

[northwestsnow]

It's important to weight up the 96 -144 timeframe which is huge for later frames.

IMO EC has edged towards GFS this evening ,but I think we are in last chance saloon on the 00z runs..

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Frost and fog chances reduce after Saturday based on UKMO/ECM as Atlantic cloud fills our high pressure. 

Judging from the pressure charts looks like saturday might see a break in terms of cold and frost but from 120 hours it looks cold and frosty all the way to the end particularly for england!!

[Weather-history]

15 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Am i correct in saying ecm is at least cold and frosty for england?!!!oh gosh the levels im stooping to now just to be happy to see cold and frost!!!just goes to show how bad this winter has been so far!

ECM 12z suggests this but the problem is how much cloud will there be

 

[SqueakheartLW]

Now I am back it's time to see how many of the things in this list from GFS 06z Op were met on the GFS 12z Op

• UK high sinks SE and weakens quite a bit to avoid the Euro high situation     TICK
• Atlantic low sinks south a little and into a position to prop up next high around Greenland     TICK
• Scandi trough drops down from the Arctic into Europe     TICK
• Northerly starts at around +120h or thereabouts     TICK
• We pull down 850hpa uppers around -10C, below this would be a bonus and even better     NOPE
• The ensemble mean 850hpa temps at peak of cold snap/spell gets colder than -7.3C which was the 06z coldest mean was. NOPE (Only drops to -6.5C so a downgrade)
• We can make this cold snap more of an extended cold spell and follow the control run from 06z     NOPE

Negatives

Overall a bit of a downgrade in terms of the OP run and the 850hpa ensemble mean temp of the peak of the cold snap.

Positives

A lot of the initial conditions that potentially get us to the northerly were met. The main problem was that things evolved slightly differently so we missed out on the jackpot but run by run variations. Could be back hitting the jackpot again on the 18z.

[January Snowstorm]

The GEM usually gets a mention!

Not tonight because it's very like the ECM!