Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Staffmoorlands]

5 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Am I missing something here - looks a great run (GFS). V cold for the south and east especially…cold across many other parts too. Slight east progression but overall same theme - COLD

You are correct, a wintry week ahead with snow for south and east especially. Will be interesting to hear Gavin Partridge thoughts later on

Edited January 11, 2022 by Staffmoorlands

[phil nw.]

Well GFS the 06z was the best possible pattern we could have hoped for but it's encouraging that the 12z run still shows a cold plunge next week.

Some early detail to sort out further upstream which will affect the shape of any mid-Atlantic ridging.On that subject it is Interesting to watch that new low forming around T60 near Florida that rapidly deepens ,runs up the east coast of NA and phases with the Canadian trough further north by T120.

T60                                                         T84

T120

This forces WAA up the west coast of Greenland and draws the UK high north westwards.Both GFS and UKMO show this evolution but differ at t144 on the ejection of the trough into the Atlantic with the GFS driving more energy south creating a better ridge.

 

Edited January 11, 2022 by phil nw.
added time to images

[CoxR]

seems like there is a general eastward shift of the storm and the high in the ensembles, so a less snowy suite overall probably?

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

With this mean at 120 there will be others than are like the OP further on

That mean is brilliant looks better than the op to my eye.. low nicely cut off and the vortex cold more on a south westerly slant.. most agreeable…..

[northwestsnow]

Control looks good..

[Lampostwatcher]

Control looks great if you compare it to the gfs 00z which we woke up to this morning 

[CameronWS]

Based on the people shouting massive downgrade or upgrade you would think there’s been a complete pattern change… in reality the models are just either shunting the cold northerly East or West a few hundred miles.

If it goes Far East we miss out, in the middle we get a partial northerly (better for the east) and if it goes far west we get a belter.

Also worth considering it was just last winter at this range Northerly’s where being modelled to directly hit us - they all ended up going west. What to say the models won’t shift the core cold west again this year which would actually be favourable?

[Lukesluckybunch]

wow the mean at 132 is giving us a straight northerly!

[Ali1977]

Some of the better T150 ENS. Enjoy.

[tight isobar]

Also to note; via snowy Synoptics- that’s all academic at this range, and we need to avoid imby wants... the pattern has almost flipped in regards upstream/ home Synoptics = high placement/ evolve.. this exites me as this is a classic turn of foot.. that usually bears fruit .. as per we’ll see what the Euro conputer says against its rival @ gfs

[minus10]

Interesting jet stream high into greenland....pretty large area of hp to west and north...

 

 

 

[bluearmy]

42 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs on its standard bit by bit, run by run revision ….

Those who are looking at the 12z suite and thinking ‘well that’s not too far away from the 06z’, need to remember that gfs generally does this slow bit by bit return to the other output.  The gefs are a little more encouraging in this respect because they show the gfs 06z suite wasn’t completely off piste. However, the likelihood is that the next two suites will slowly take the gfs back to the broadly agreed scenario. 
 

I did remark yesterday that as the runs are ticking down, the amplification is gaining sharpness and amplitude - is the current gfs ahead of the curve in that or just up to it’s usual stuff?? 
 

If the 12z eps clusters don’t offer any new support to the gfs then pretty safe to assume there won’t be quite the depth of cold gfs has shown today early part next week ….

[That ECM]

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

wow the mean at 132 is giving us a straight northerly!

well …….if you squint and twist your face a bit ….

 

Gefs mean actually a very good match for the gfs op at day 6 despite the differing clusters 

Btw, your ‘straight northerly’ with slp over 1020 wouldn’t deliver much - better than what the other models are showing though! 

Edited January 11, 2022 by bluearmy

[phil nw.]

I think that up T120 we have seen some encouraging output and given that the 12z ecm yesterday showed better ridging of the high at T168 compared to the same time 24hrs earlier then let's hope it gives us another step forward to cold later on this evening.

Up to now it seems once we get within the 5 day range the models are finding better amplification in the Atlantic.Fingers crossed ecm does the same as it did yesterday.

[minus10]

 

So second run where the high is more west than over us or east of us. Is this a new trend or will, as Blue says it trend back to the previous scenario....lets hope it can keep west with other models also trending that way....(please...)

 

 

[minus10]

 

    ecm....

 

[That ECM]

Gfs momentum. 

[Singularity]

    

UK details aside, interesting that GFS has again created a new, quite large cut-off low near the Azores in 6-7 days time. This allows the high to keep trying to build north even without the most helpful of polar patterns in force. We even see a bit of an omega blocking formation with a shot at a cold north-easterly via the polar jet cutting back on the SE flank of the high. A rare way to see a bit of continental cold without either of a -NAO or Scandinavian High.

The 00z runs had no such development (GFS and ECM shown as examples). The UKM 12z wasn't interested, but that model is often one step behind on new developments (for some reason!). All eyes on the 12z ECM to see if it adds it. I'm not saying it will, mind.

[Trom]

49 minutes ago, IDO said:

We were never going to get the exact same 06z run again, but it produces the same synoptic with the trough>cut-off low, so great stuff compared to the 0z:

0z>  12z> 

Just need support from EC and for consistency (and hopefully some upgrades!).

The standard deviation on the 06Z ensembles showed the North West to be the area of greatest uncertainty.   So no surprise the 12Z op shows differences in this region.  The good news was that despite the variability the ensembles showed in the North West many still produced cold for the UK.  The 12Z ensembles still show the greatest variability at +168 in the Greenland area.

[TSNWK]

If realistically we accept for now that ecm will not delight as the two previous gfs run have then would we at least want to be seeing up to around 168 that would suggest there gfs past two runs has some backing from the best performing model ecm.

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    

UK details aside, interesting that GFS has again created a new, quite large cut-off low near the Azores in 6-7 days time. This allows the high to keep trying to build north even without the most helpful of polar patterns in force. We even see a bit of an omega blocking formation with a shot at a cold north-easterly via the polar jet cutting back on the SE flank of the high. A rare way to see a bit of continental cold without either of a -NAO or Scandinavian High.

The 00z runs had no such development (GFS and ECM shown as examples). The UKM 12z wasn't interested, but that model is often one step behind on new developments (for some reason!). All eyes on the 12z ECM to see if it adds it. I'm not saying it will, mind.

im not saying it will either perhaps somthing middle ground,better then UKMO not as good gfs,but the trends appear to be pretty strong from the gfs with the mean etc...

[Ali1977]

The GFS 12z would probably have frost for about 5 days with little or no meltdown to it still being January, now if only we could have a little weather front in the initial northerly to cover of snow on the ground then nights would be much colder,  and it would probably end up being an old school severely cold spell!! 

[Staffmoorlands]

GEM similar to UKMO in saying NO to any snow next week

 

Edited January 11, 2022 by Staffmoorlands

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

GEM similar to UKMO in saying NO to any snow next week

 

It really is gfs versus the rest…