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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

Community Team

By Community Team
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread and use the winter chat thread for non-model related discussion.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

For less of a cold-slanted look at the models, please head over to the alternate model discussion. 

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, AFCBSNOW said:

I will take -7 uppers over Bournemouth, any day of the week!!

U can have -9 850s if u want

D917C531-E18C-44E8-A8E1-22FA93A58787.png

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
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Posted
Just now, mountain shadow said:

But if you believe the UKMO then you won't. The snow will be over Norway, Sweden and Denmark.

The GFS 12z is a big downgrade on the 6z, but then I don't think anyone was expecting that to be correct.

It is not a big downgrade at all.. it had pulled back from the nearly perfection from 06z it might well be a trend that is continued to but I cannot agree with big donwgrade

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

GFS 144h. Still decent. WAA still going, trough going South.
If we would not have had that 6z run, nobody would complain.

11jan12GFS-144.thumb.png.45dd27fa4886a2fc2671927b65c39f0e.png

It's a still a good run for sure not as clean as the 6z I know...there seems a little more energy towards the NW on this run which is making that clean sweep into Greenland a little more difficult..but if we are seeing slow but subtle changes right now than I will take it.

Once an High becomes established its always going to be difficult just exactly where it ends up.

But in the shorter term expect Frost and fog with the hints of something more wintry further along the line! Hey at least this beats West to East Zonal..and I certainly don't see anything like that right now.

gfsnh-0-150.png

6A7CD4CD-EC66-48AC-8300-AE980398B8B2.gif

E89E2078-7B84-41C2-8B49-30B8B86AB5D8.png

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Ukmo has moved towards gfs. But will it move enough on future runs. Hoping ecm does.

6A7CD4CD-EC66-48AC-8300-AE980398B8B2.gif

E89E2078-7B84-41C2-8B49-30B8B86AB5D8.png

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Popular Post
Posted

We were never going to get the exact same 06z run again, but it produces the same synoptic with the trough>cut-off low, so great stuff compared to the 0z:

0z> 914610308_gfseu-0-180(2).thumb.png.45916ba38900689bbdac9f5316a27884.png 12z> gfseu-0-168.thumb.png.fbe5ca46af1183e8f5c0a5be22c72580.png

Just need support from EC and for consistency (and hopefully some upgrades!).

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Well I’ve seen worse charts in depths of winter mlb.. and now deep cold 850s.. and to boot a high pressure cell going in exactly the correct direction

D1AC77A7-8C67-48FE-B59A-F0F917DCEF62.png

972E5142-44F7-439D-BF25-22A1C37AE7E6.png

FB34F49F-4C44-4C95-99A8-251BE34734D5.png

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

The doom and gloom regarding the gfs 00z run to have a 12z gfs t144 chart is definitely not a downgrade

It's not as good as the 6z though which gave a monumental straight Northerly at only Day 6. That has gone.

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ukmo has moved towards gfs. But will it move enough on future runs. Hoping ecm does.

6A7CD4CD-EC66-48AC-8300-AE980398B8B2.gif

E89E2078-7B84-41C2-8B49-30B8B86AB5D8.png

Yep ukmo also starting the slant

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted

The 12z is basically a light version of the 6z.

The big High is further South. This time we end up under the High, but notice the Genoa Low and how far away the North American tPV is.

11jan12GFS-180.thumb.png.98df1fb3c1162c1bfb55852d761a6ff4.png

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

The gfs . Almost perfect Synoptics.. and WE ARE getting into the semi- reliable! Edit; the snow potential from such sway would be upgraded day- by day...

33960EFF-A029-4BF5-AA87-8B71F05FE491.png

Edited by tight isobar
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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted

Cold high....

image.thumb.png.522ee313003e3cb1ba6a09b203b13988.png

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, minus10 said:

Cold high....

image.thumb.png.522ee313003e3cb1ba6a09b203b13988.png

Banging chart..

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

There’s still some great ENS in there. Over to the ECM which may well improve lots.

Max temps next Tue

 

Sorry that’s min 

93ECE5AD-20EB-42F4-86B3-5047226C2E79.gif

CF39E9DB-2D7D-4611-A911-8096E4EB02E5.gif

Edited by Ali1977
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

There’s still some great ENS in there. Over to the ECM which may well improve lots.

Max temps next Tue

93ECE5AD-20EB-42F4-86B3-5047226C2E79.gif

Yep Ice-days getting more loaded via ens/supports.. I’m going for it... “the gfs has this correct “

Edited by tight isobar
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

So if we agree that this run is slightly less glamorous than the 06z then I guess we need to see where it sits in the ensembles this mornings op was about 3rd from the bottom around 168 to 240 ish.. what we don’t want is this 12z being a cold outlier or lower in the pack compared with this morning.. off course it would be lovely to see it sitting in the top half..

 

 

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
Just now, TSNWK said:

So if we agree that this run is slightly less glamorous than the 06z then I guess we need to see where it sits in the ensembles this mornings op was about 3rd from the bottom around 168 to 240 ish.. what we don’t want is this 12z being a cold outlier or lower in the pack compared with this morning.. off course it would be lovely to see it sitting in the top half..

 

 

With this mean at 120 there will be others than are like the OP further on

gensnh-31-1-120 (5).png

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Frigid Experienced

Frigid

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

The 12Z gfs is far from a downgrade. Same idea of a northerly and heights lurking around to either go to Scandi, Greenland or on top of us. would give some terrific frosts!

just be glad it’s nothing like the 00z

Edited by Frigid
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