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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

Community Team

By Community Team
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread and use the winter chat thread for non-model related discussion.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

For less of a cold-slanted look at the models, please head over to the alternate model discussion. 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Still plenty of cold look ENS, ready to hit the U.K.

220B996E-C914-48C0-AB7E-B7138DAE7826.png

046BE28C-F38D-4D87-93C5-C315BF6A649C.png

DCC32CEC-A4ED-4390-B128-F04390520404.png

2205457C-6310-43A6-9529-6581C2A8334B.png

789F5A13-7146-44E6-B3F1-9105610AC8A1.png

34A03DC7-9363-4C8F-88DF-68486734BC68.png

7DDDAE0C-302B-497B-922E-07DD1054781C.png

C9D57DA9-F20A-4646-8E0E-240015EAD3B4.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
6 minutes ago, davehsug said:

I always find it strange that the Northern Pacific doesn't seem to suffer from the same model uncertainty as the Atlantic.

Its more climate that dominates there though isn't it, psedo, quasi or intra decadal oscillations rather than just random weather, and the ENSO state, which is easier to model at long range is much more reliable for forecasting in the Pacific, even the Northern latitudes, ENSO really means squat in Britain, when just used as a single forecasting tool.

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
Just now, Ali1977 said:

Still plenty of cold look ENS, ready to hit the U.K.

220B996E-C914-48C0-AB7E-B7138DAE7826.png

046BE28C-F38D-4D87-93C5-C315BF6A649C.png

DCC32CEC-A4ED-4390-B128-F04390520404.png

2205457C-6310-43A6-9529-6581C2A8334B.png

789F5A13-7146-44E6-B3F1-9105610AC8A1.png

34A03DC7-9363-4C8F-88DF-68486734BC68.png

7DDDAE0C-302B-497B-922E-07DD1054781C.png

C9D57DA9-F20A-4646-8E0E-240015EAD3B4.png

If only huh? We need to see these in abundance on the morning ops if we are to stand any chance of a significant cold spell. 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

If only huh? We need to see these in abundance on the morning ops if we are to stand any chance of a significant cold spell. 

P5, that’s what we want - just like the 06 GFS op run.

37B8F115-48A7-4FE1-923B-01C234025ACB.png

 

B01E1EE8-636A-4F31-852D-2A674CF0E2B5.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Same old story from the crappy gfs!!!!back to square one!although if you believe the ecm we were always at square one anyway!!!!

It's just not working out this winter so far for us is it?!

Edited by Don
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CoxR Contributor

CoxR

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Still plenty of cold look ENS, ready to hit the U.K.

220B996E-C914-48C0-AB7E-B7138DAE7826.png

046BE28C-F38D-4D87-93C5-C315BF6A649C.png

DCC32CEC-A4ED-4390-B128-F04390520404.png

2205457C-6310-43A6-9529-6581C2A8334B.png

789F5A13-7146-44E6-B3F1-9105610AC8A1.png

34A03DC7-9363-4C8F-88DF-68486734BC68.png

7DDDAE0C-302B-497B-922E-07DD1054781C.png

C9D57DA9-F20A-4646-8E0E-240015EAD3B4.png

based on general shift eastwards over last 2 GFS runs, in line with every other model, it is far far more likely for the high to sit over the top of the UK 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

I count 13 Northerlies out of 30 ENS, some brutal cold. It’s by far from over, let’s see what the morning brings !! The better ones here 

CCEC313E-65AF-4F90-9401-537F63573FD1.png

189A9065-A100-459C-AE87-6A4011F3CFE3.png

6E8AF74F-9F2C-4DD8-AF8E-EAD9C8E6FA1B.png

F6DE4017-8D87-4F70-88C6-1B769C528B22.png

CEFDCD23-B710-4B7A-BC82-543BFC41D059.png

6D8F65EA-A356-4C5C-A071-24FE5A7BBB79.png

6354EF19-726B-4078-B3C1-99CE24BD2E45.png

67F48D6C-5C62-4306-9464-B1446D804290.png

Edited by Ali1977
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mean and control are not bad, maybe a tiny bit worse than earlier, time to change but trending the wrong way for sure

gensnh-31-1-126 (3).png

Agreed, a step to the right. enough time for a step to the left but not much.

B7A25FD7-7185-4EF4-B33E-6676F4792DDC.png

7F63BE94-9ADB-46E4-B921-83E163242666.png

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Oh p5 got this 

FF6E47C6-11BD-4B57-8230-046EA3810BF4.png

0DBB43FD-EE98-4713-94A0-EB4082BD67D9.png

D8099D7A-DA9A-4627-B7A4-A54D189F6E07.png

P7 trumps 5

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
  • Popular Post
Posted

If you're just going to moan about the model output, or post to say it's game over, do so over here please..

If more appear in this thread, they'll be moved, or they'll go missing. 

 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

There is enough in the eps clusters to maintain interest in the possibility that we could get a frigid northerly next week at some point. …..not as sustained cold as the 06z gfs was but beggars can’t be choosers at the moment! 
 

so we’ll all be here in the morning but the gfs step back from the 06 to the 12 to the 18 back to where it began the day is typical of the model 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, weathercold said:

I’d like to know what you’re seeing here - looks a bust to me unfortunately 

I’m seeing formats like this- with almost.. or actually square Atlantic- to Europe Synopticsof block situ, yet with partial- broken embedded cold.. like a child’s ill put together jigsaw.. I’m sorry but pre-@144 via any model running ?‍♂️, it’s pantomime!.. and that is as clear as tomorrow become day- to see!!

5B0712FE-42C1-4F12-8E70-51EA8B9966F9.png

Edited by tight isobar
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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

P7 trumps 5

Yer was just posting it Ali -16 uppers in

850D7315-D9C8-49AA-8B11-D46C299B93FD.png

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yer was just posting it Ali -16 uppers in

850D7315-D9C8-49AA-8B11-D46C299B93FD.png

More believable than the out- of block- and height formation.. that is for sure  of the raw run ?‍♂️ 

Edited by tight isobar
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sorepaw1 Rising Star

sorepaw1

Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Is the GFS 18z having loading problems tonight. 

I can't view the 18z past T96 hrs.

I'm using weatheronline expert charts 

Anyone else experiencing this.

Edited by sorepaw1
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

More believable than the out- of block- and height formation.. that is for sure  of the raw run ?‍♂️ 

@legritter did you give all the stellas to TS instead of sharing them about? love your posts, not sure this is more believable than the op though.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

OP and control quite a bit above the mean.

If we had one of those sub -10 runs it would have been a happier place here.

On to tomorrow!

gfs-london-gb-515n-0e (18).png

There’s about 4 degree spread on the 15th and a 18 degree spread on the 18th.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Op pretty much an outlier then.

Last chance saloon for a big Northerly 00z runs..

Stranger things have happened ..

I'm just glad we've a few days of calm ,seasonal weather.

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