Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Garden and path seems apt to describe the models this winter - as quickly as they give they take away.

Poor runs overnight off the back of poor 12z and 18z. I’m sure we can all find the odd ensemble run to argue a cold spell is still a viable option but let’s be honest here - it’s a bust.

On to the next chase….surely one has to land just hopefully not by the time we reach late March. 

They’re only garden path if you’re selective in the ones you view. They are also garden path in terms of Tplus. We go looking into fi hunting for cold but no one forces anyone up the garden path they go because they choose too. Can always stick to Ukmo and go no further that Tplus 72 but where’s the fun in that?

[Mike Poole]

4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

First out is the ICON- awful again...just a conveyor belt of mid latitude heights pushing in from the Atlantic, PV draped to the N of these heights like a heavy lid.

If we move towards ENSO neutral in spring, we're heading for the likelihood of a 2018 May-July like period with continued and repeated Azores HP ridging. You can mark my words on that one. Everything is so static and there's seemingly nothing to force us out of this pattern. 

I'm sure @Mike Poole will be pleased to hear my (very) early thoughts on this  

Ha, haven’t even thought about summer yet.  What strikes me is that the Atlantic has been dead since about this time last year.  I remember wondering in autumn whether it would resurge, hoping it would stay in slumber into winter - it has done, but it sticks in the throat that we’ve still not managed to land anything remotely cold anyway!  If the pattern persists, plus the strengthened and displaced Azores high, we could be wondering the same in the run up to summer.

UKMO and GFS this morning are like chalk and cheese at T120 and even earlier.  I can’t decided whether these GFS solutions are just part of the envelope of uncertainty, or whether it is seeing something different to the other models.  If the latter, then the next question is what it seeing nonsense or not?  I now suspect it is, but the 12z suite should consign the early (T144) northerly to the bin.  Later prospects still in play.  We will see…

[TSNWK]

Just now, That ECM said:

They’re only garden path if you’re selective in the ones you view. They are also garden path in terms of Tplus. We go looking into fi hunting for cold but no one forces anyone up the garden path they go because they choose too. Can always stick to Ukmo and go no further that Tplus 72 but where’s the fun in that?

Precisely.. I'm more than happy to walk up the path and take me chances and I've learned so much by doing so... 

[TEITS]

Rather odd output this morning and I shall use Aberdeenshire as an example.

On the 18th Jan in Aberdeenshire the UKMO has upper temps around 7C, ECM 4C, GFS -10C!!

What is rather odd is no GEFS ensemble member supports ECM/UKMO with just 2 members at around 4C.

So whilst the ECM/UKMO are the favourite we cannot assume they are right. I have known times for the GFS to be proved correct over the ECM/UKMO when there is such a difference in the output.

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,still the the uncertainty from this repositioning high pressure temperatures will

be in low single figures day time with frost and freezing fog keeping a very wintery scene going.

Best solution to keep a Brest of this shifting high is Fax charts,120 hrs show’s this nicely with a cold 

front heading south through the high.

[Methuselah]

Thanks to BT, I've hardly been on here much, these past few days. But, one thing I have noticed is the sheer number of cherry-picked perturbations being posted. Talk about building our own garden paths!

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

This one?

Not that split - more amplified MAR heading slowly east  …..variations on a theme this morning with one cluster flatter 

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Did they? That’s good news.  Were they showing them end of week 4 , two weeks ago?  I don’t look at the clusters, other members like yourself helpfully bring them up far more efficiently than I could

 BFTP

Extended eps only go to day 15

and if they went to four weeks I can guarantee that climatology would prevent all clusters showing a similar solution at that timescale ….

 

[bluearmy]

21 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Rather odd output this morning and I shall use Aberdeenshire as an example.

On the 18th Jan in Aberdeenshire the UKMO has upper temps around 7C, ECM 4C, GFS -10C!!

What is rather odd is no GEFS ensemble member supports ECM/UKMO with just 2 members at around 4C.

So whilst the ECM/UKMO are the favourite we cannot assume they are right. I have known times for the GFS to be proved correct over the ECM/UKMO when there is such a difference in the output.

The eps spread on 850’s shows the uncertainty over the North Sea but I think that gfs in being so far west with the upper trough is right at the edge of reason in offering to clip the e of Scotland with -10c. 

 

[northwestsnow]

Well, as people wake to a colder landscape my gut feeling looking at the 00z data is things could be worse given the NH pressure profile.

There maybe a couple of attempts at retrogression in the outlook - hoping if the first fails ,the second might be more successful..

 

Edited January 12, 2022 by northwestsnow

[carinthian]

Morning all. Super clear start to the day , currently -11c but the wind has a cutting edge this morning. Just an update with the thoughts from the team . Looks like solid agreement  up to the weekend from most models. There after some variation going into the start of next week. From what I can gather , the main problem is the inconsistency of the jet profile into Greenland. This of course will affect the positioning and potency of the Upper Tropospheric low pressure systems as they form and exit Greenland. Furthermore, in the period 5-10 days this would also affect any future alignment of the British Isles high, to either stagnate sink or amplify. Amplification definitely still in the mix so there remains plenty of potential for attempts of cold incursions in the British Isles. especially as long as the TPV to the Northeast remains. Its all a matter of timing. Hope this helps.

[Climate Man]

1 hour ago, weathercold said:

Really? Would say it’s fairly accurate- cannot see any cold spell across any of the NWP- maybe I’m looking at the wrong charts
It’s a bust for next week, simple as.

Depending on how you define cold. Mean air temp may well be below average, therefore cold. 

[weathercold]

9 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

Depending on how you define cold. Mean air temp may well be below average, therefore cold. 

Freeze - like the old winters 

Snow …

 

[TSNWK]

Gfs back into the fold with the euros…. For early next week.. now to start looking for the next hunt.

[joggs]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Gfs back into the fold with the euros…. For early next week.. now to start looking for the next hunt.

I'd rather this than mild,wind and rain. 

[TSNWK]

Just now, joggs said:

I'd rather this than mild,wind and rain. 

Looking at temps we still keep mild with an 8c progged in the south at 07|00 next Tuesday…. Wind and rain gone though 

[booferking]

GFS moves the Northerly run to run 2000km in 24hrs cannon folder

[Battleground Snow]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Gfs back into the fold with the euros…. For early next week.. now to start looking for the next hunt.

Perhaps 3 days later?

Hard to have any confidence with the GFS at the moment though.

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Thanks to BT, I've hardly been on here much, these past few days. But, one thing I have noticed is the sheer number of cherry-picked perturbations being posted. Talk about building our own garden paths!

Being a gardener i go up many garden paths...at least you get a better result

Gfs closing the gate on yesterdays 6z garden path...

[TSNWK]

Let’s see if attempt 2 plays out any better….

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Let’s see if attempt 2 plays out any better….

Nope.

[TSNWK]

Rinse and repeat I’m seeing on attempt 2.. just too much steering momentum up over the polar regions for heights that benefit us to take root. This attempt will topple again

[SqueakheartLW]

Give me P9 from the GEM 00z or P17 from the GFS 00z please

At least both of these members from each model turn cold and generally stay there. Nothing exceptional cold wise at 850hpa but at least it puts us in the cold game.

[booferking]

24 minutes ago, booferking said:

GFS moves the Northerly run to run 2000km in 24hrs cannon folder

And to put that into context that's 72 grides it's moved if it's running at a resoultion of 28km grid points.

[Midlands Ice Age]

6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

No wonder a lot of people in the southern states don't believe in climate change and a warming world- every winter recently they're hit by brutal Arctic cold

All to do with that ever present HP just off the west coast. It's that which has helped ruin our winters recently.

A YouTube Video below from Tuesday demonstrates the problems even for the US forecasters with the current weather pattern over the US.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnUF4O1t0dU

 

Skip the adverts there is then about 5 mins which demonstrates that they have little faith in any model at the moment.

Suggesting it could be thursday or even friday before they have a handle on it.

So how can we expect to know what is going to happen here 2500miles downstream?!!

MIA

PS It also indicates that it could be a repeating weather pattern over there, so other opportunities could follow.

The one we need apparently is one where three or more of these lows are close enough together, to start to rotate around each other, instead of moving off into the Atlantic.

They are also looking towards this is their best outcome as it will produce huge amounts of snow for them.

Edited January 12, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age
spelling

[TSNWK]

3rd time lucky?