Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[tight isobar]

Yep she topples.. but it’s trying to move ever closer to the gfs ya get the feeling.. and let’s not forget we have the big American issues to unfold. If the 18z gfs sticks.. then you’d have to take note now !

[blizzard81]

And yes, as suspected. It topples. Not as bad a chart though when you look at the 850 temps. A cold high is much better than wind and rain. 

[blizzard81]

Could we even see a ridge into Scandi at day 9 I wonder?

[Kasim Awan]

ECM siding with GEM here tho a slight increase in amplification. Doesn't mean much for surface conditions tho.

[jules216]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

It's a toppler for sure ..but with a little nudge west of the pattern it could produce a potent cold shot..

I've felt there is scope for repeated topplers for a while ,obviously @jules216 is in a prime location for some very wintry blasts as it stands...

I've no idea what EC will produce but hoping for the best. 

Well EC is a toppler fór me too, GEM is not even that. I know for sure this about GFS

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, jules216 said:

Well EC is a toppler fór me too, GEM is not even that. I know for sure this about GFS

Yep must be devastating for you Jules  .

All that-12 upper air...

Edited January 12, 2022 by northwestsnow

[tight isobar]

T,aint mild is it.. - and we still have a fare bit in the engine on this @120/ 216!!!.. ens + gfs18z then we can at least see the wood for the trees I think!

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

ECM siding with GEM here tho a slight increase in amplification. Doesn't mean much for surface conditions tho.

its a big improvement though kasim..a cold run at least!

Edited January 12, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
spelling

[booferking]

The master model leading the way we might get a direct hit on toppler number 4 that's my prediction around 24th January.

[jules216]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yep must be devastating for you Jules  .

All that-12 upper air...

Its because you dont understand the orography of Slovakia.  A -8  T850hPa under NW will produce a sunny +5 fór me, All the Snow will be blocked by mountains as Well as coldest air.  I get colder temps under slack westerly,even Ice days like today with rising uppers.

[blizzard81]

Whilst the ecm is determined not to give us any eye candy this season, at least it serves up a nice cold seasonal high. This still leaves options open for something better down the line. Which is better than having to face relentless zonal dross off the atlantic. 

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

its a big improvement though kasim..a cold run at least!

Wont get much cold / snow when the Iberian high has such a strong pulling force on the Mid Atlantic ridge

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

The master model leading the way we might get a direct hit on toppler number 4 that's my prediction around 24th January.

Toppler number 4, what a time to be aliveleast it will be dry and settled. 

[blizzard81]

Well, I for one remember how bad January's have been in the UK over the last 20 plus years. So I'm more than happy with the present output. 

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Toppler number 4, what a time to be aliveleast it will be dry and settled. 

Not really a toppler on the ecm / gem, more just an insignificant movement of the high. It is for Germany tho.

Edited January 12, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, booferking said:

The master model leading the way we might get a direct hit on toppler number 4 that's my prediction around 24th January.

It’s all getting like Rodney trotter on a clay shooting range- it’s all dressed up great.. but then shoots  and hits like a bosseyed horse .. .. surely we cannot keep swerving !!!!!

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not really a toppler on the ecm / gem. It is for Germany tho.

Sorry was quoting. Toppler seems the new key word.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

It’s all getting like Rodney trotter on a clay shooting range- it’s all dressed up great.. but then shoots  and hits like a bosseyed horse .. .. surely we cannot keep swerving !!!!!

i thought the ECM was pretty decent as i said cold temps at least,key part was 144-168 showing them heights approaching greenland,i hope this is a new trend that will grow stronger!

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Sorry was quoting. Toppler seems the new key word.

Not seeing any classic wintry conditions the UK can get from a toppler on any output.

The GFS is a sustained mid atlantic ridge & the gem / ecm is a toppling high with the usual temporary wintryness restricted to eastern Europe.

Edited January 12, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

that says…..”Assault from the NW to SE”….

 

BFTP

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240:

I don’t think this chart is likely to verify at all, but if it did, the only option for the high is to retrogress, and that would bring into play the whole trop vortex in another few days.  

It has often been said we need several bites at the cherry for a really cold spell, well this drawn out saga takes the shortcake, but it is still possible it ends good, because there is literally nothing coming off the Atlantic, so even if it runs into Feb and we keep seeing these attempts to develop a decent ridge, one of them will surely deliver, I would have thought.

Edited January 12, 2022 by Mike Poole

[blizzard81]

They look like a very decent set of ensembles from the GFS. 

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,both ECM and GFS bring in the colder 850 hpa temperatures that they agree on,the main difference 

being orientation with GFS keeping the high more to the west dragging in a northerly Arctic scenario.

ECM has an easterly flow due to the high orientation but at last some agreement as such on colder 850 hpa.

No sign of anything mild,with day time temperatures heading further south.

 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

that says…..”Assault from the NW to SE”….

 

BFTP

Yep, that chart holds much potential for the back end of week 2. This coupled with the GFS ensembles looking good right into the extended, I'm feeling strangely positive. Would be nice to see an improvement on the ECM extended ens this evening. 

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240:

I don’t think this chart is likely to verify at all, but if it did, the only option for the high is to retrogress, and that would bring into play the whole trop vortex in another few days.  

It has often been said we need several bites at the cherry for a really cold spell, well this drawn out sage takes the shortcake, but it is still possible it ends good, because there is literally nothing coming off the Atlantic, so even if it runs into Feb and we keep seeing these attempts to develop a decent ridge, one of them will surely deliver, I would have thought.

Indeed, that chart is super loaded but will we get there?