Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Battleground Snow]

26 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ICON more amplified on 18z also slightly west!

This is the model we need to be on board based on the last month or so 

I'm not entirely convinced the first ESB storm is moddled correctly yet. It's still 90 hours away until it reaches the tip of Greenland

[alexisj9]

9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

This is the model we need to be on board based on the last month or so 

I'm not entirely convinced the first ESB storm is moddled correctly yet. It's still 90 hours away until it reaches the tip of Greenland

Well the last set of ensembles diverged here at that time, so I do agree, wonder when the models will feel it out.

Edited January 12, 2022 by alexisj9

[swfc]

I'm generally getting a bit fed up of watching this high floating about waxing and waininng. The lack of posts shows any real interest will be fi on the nhp. Granted there are no raging sw winds and rain etc. Guess it's how high you set the bar in nearly mid January. Enjoy the rest of your evening 

[blizzard81]

My positivity earlier on is taking a bit of a beating now. On two fronts. Solar activity is ramping up again after a short quiet spell. Incredible timing again. Also this terrible ECM day 10 mean. No dressing this one up I'm afraid. 

[Guest]

18z is looking better for cold hunters....

Edited January 12, 2022 by DCee

[TSNWK]

Just now, DCee said:

18z is looking better for cold hunters....

It's not.. at 168 heights for attempt 2 are less and vortex gap is not forming.

[blizzard81]

And don't look at the pub run. Its ghastly! 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

My positivity earlier on is taking a bit of a beating now. On two fronts. Solar activity is ramping up again after a short quiet spell. Incredible timing again. Also this terrible ECM day 10 mean. No dressing this one up I'm afraid. 

Is this going to be a winter of chasing until it fades into spring?!  Long range models offer little hope for February.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, DCee said:

18z is looking better for cold hunters....

not better compared to the 12z GFS.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, DCee said:

18z is looking better for cold hunters....

No, it REALLY isn't. 

1 minute ago, Don said:

Is this going to be a winter of chasing until it fades into spring?!  Long range models offer little hope for February.

I'm beginning to feel that way now Don unfortunately. 

[Don]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

No, it REALLY isn't. 

Always tomorrow's model updates! 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Always tomorrow's model updates! 

[Scandinavian High.]

Really think we have been cursed it is extremely difficult bring some proper wintery weather uk.

Edited January 12, 2022 by Scandinavian High.

[tight isobar]

I’m drawing a line now.. it’s late January/ early February for anything of note.. and that alone needs to be seen in evolvement form!!.. it’s turning out to be a so near yet so far winter!.. it’s completely frustrating!!!!!!!

[Guest]

Not for the initial topler, but setting up much better for later frames...

[Lukesluckybunch]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

No, it REALLY isn't. 

I'm beginning to feel that way now Don unfortunately. 

exactly its possibly about to become really good at 204h

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Really think we have been cursed it is extremely difficult bring some proper wintery weather uk.

Its hard not to think the wheels are coming off here. The more I look at that day 10 ecm mean, the more it looks like those ugly winter seasonal forecasts. 

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, DCee said:

Not for the initial topler, but setting up much better for later frames...

Think that's the issue tbh. Nothing gets any closer and I'm also finding the word toppler is getting on my wick

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, DCee said:

Not for the initial topler, but setting up much better for later frames...

I think we must be viewing different charts?

[saintkip]

Just now, tight isobar said:

I’m drawing a line now.. it’s late January/ early February for anything of note.. and that alone needs to be seen in evolvement form!!.. it’s turning out to be a so near yet so far winter!.. it’s completely frustrating!!!!!!!

I don’t even think it’s been so near so far, the chase before Christmas never had any really exciting weather and this mini Chase has been lame from day one. It’s just been a terrible winter so far, if we don’t get any cold February I hope Spring isn’t like last year, give me warmth.

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I’m drawing a line now.. it’s late January/ early February for anything of note.. and that alone needs to be seen in evolvement form!!.. it’s turning out to be a so near yet so far winter!.. it’s completely frustrating!!!!!!!

I was wondering when you were going to throw the towel in for next week's northerly

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

exactly its possibly about to become really good at 204h

I just don't see what you are seeing there. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I just don't see what you are seeing there. 

it didnt turn out how i thought,high sits to close by doesnt go north..but it could be worse its similar to 12z in terms of getting in the northerly around 20th but not as potent..also the winds always from a northwest direction,its better then raging southwesterlies and 10/11c!

Edited January 12, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, DCee said:

Not for the initial topler, but setting up much better for later frames...

 There's not a huge amount in it at 240, but still the 12z just a bit better for me, more fragmented vortex, well aware though of course that the 384 chart could show a screaming ne flow with -12c whistling all the way down to Cornwall.

[Don]

9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Its hard not to think the wheels are coming off here. The more I look at that day 10 ecm mean, the more it looks like those ugly winter seasonal forecasts. 

I was hanging on to the fact that like last year, the BCC seasonal model would be correct again!  Still time for winter to redeem itself, but it needs to pull its finger out!