Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[TSNWK]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hoping to see a bit more Atlantic amplification on EC det this evening.

Ukmo 168 isn't quite there but with  a tweak or two ....

But.  You can see the gap forming in the vortex that GFS completed around 180..

Also is now ukm168 available in meteocile?

[northwestsnow]

Outlook locally is 3 to 5 max 0 to 2 min with lots of cold fog and mist..

Certainly nothing mild on the horizon that I can see in the 12zs so far...

I'm not expecting ec to be as amplified as gfs but I'll be happy if it is ...

[Staffmoorlands]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Outlook locally is 3 to 5 max 0 to 2 min with lots of cold fog and mist..

Certainly nothing mild on the horizon that I can see in the 12zs so far...

I'm not expecting ec to be as amplified as gfs but I'll be happy if it is ...

Are you discounting the UKMO output? Looks milder than your figures from Saturday onwards. BBC showing 8c on Sunday

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Are you discounting the UKMO output? Looks milder than your figures from Saturday onwards. BBC showing 8c on Sunday

BBC faulty.

I'll go metoffice app , more reliable than BBC

 

[tight isobar]

Gem/ecm 12z tricling out. Mid Atlantic and the eastern most seaboard are watch zones!

[northwestsnow]

GEM is going to be more amplified than the 00z  IMO..

 

[Ice Day]

Well for a bit of fun, why we're waiting for the ECM, how about this Bobby Dazzler from the GFS Control deep in FI

It won't be there later so enjoy it now !

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Outlook locally is 3 to 5 max 0 to 2 min with lots of cold fog and mist..

Certainly nothing mild on the horizon that I can see in the 12zs so far...

I'm not expecting ec to be as amplified as gfs but I'll be happy if it is ...

It will be when charts of 26th onwards come into range.  Imo no immediate flip coming, but the ‘flow’ is looking pretty ok

 

BFTP

[tight isobar]

Ec @ just 76 and much further west- and looking to go more amplified!

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, CoxR said:

this has near miss after near miss written all over it...

I would say it's reload after reload after reload from a northerly quadrant to me,...what a run

check these animations out guys,...what's not to like,...it's not as if this is your typical zonal train of dross from the SW Atlantic is it...

 

[damianslaw]

45 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Is the UKMO 168 heading in the right direction or have i lost the plot

I think if the UKMO ran to 192hrs it would show a northerly. Notable development, given it wasnt interested in same degree of amplification over 16-18 Jan as shown by GFS until yesterday evening.

[tight isobar]

The gem finding the seaboard clearance.. and a preety decent alignment of heights in situ!

Edited January 12, 2022 by tight isobar

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well for a bit of fun, why we're waiting for the ECM, how about this Bobby Dazzler from the GFS Control deep in FI

It won't be there later so enjoy it now !

Very nice indeedy,...check out the mass black hole on that one...

[CoxR]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I would say it's reload after reload after reload from a northerly quadrant to me,...what a run

check these animations out guys,...what's not to like,...it's not as if this is your typical zonal train of dross from the SW Atlantic is it...

 

when I say near miss I mean more in terms of snow potential. The runs still look very dry on the whole. Also, based on the phantom northerly that is currently being corrected east and flattening out, which relied on similar synoptics, I'm not holding out much hope. But we'll see! 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, CoxR said:

when I say near miss I mean more in terms of snow potential. The runs still look very dry on the whole. Also, based on the phantom northerly that is currently being corrected east and flattening out, which relied on similar synoptics, I'm not holding out much hope. But we'll see! 

I know where you are coming from and i get you,...maybe a few bites at the cherry springs to mind

you have every right to be cautious,...i am but i do hope that we will land on that golden ticket soon

[That ECM]

I preferred the good old days when ecm was more amplified than the rest. How I miss those garden paths.

[tight isobar]

More energy distractions via the ec@ eastern America!.. and if only those polar heights would be more favourable.. and put a wedge between the pv main vortices! Then split.. and waa- get absorbed into the pole= blocking!.. something that the gfs is hinting at- so we need to see if ec equates to similar?!

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM looking good here 144,thinking it will go same route gfs

[Staffmoorlands]

Certainly looking milder from Sunday on the UKMO & ECM tonight. Probably be dull and cloudy too!

[Kasim Awan]

6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ECM looking good here 144,thinking it will go same route gfs

Looks closer to gem imo.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Looks closer to gem imo.

gem was no good..ECM makes it 168

[tight isobar]

Gwan the ec... - 

[Ice Day]

A pretty cold set of GEFS, increasing in number from day 8 (for my location).

The bonkers Control run wasn't even the coldest! Don't take too seriously, but still nice to look at.

 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

gem was no good..ECM makes it 168

Not a particularly great chart.. too much high pressure to southeast.

[blizzard81]

Its like pulling teeth is this. Looks like its going to topple - again.