Storm Eunice - 18th February

[snow raven]

Well I've just asked if I can WFH on Friday, so expect downgrades galore from now on

[chapmanslade]

24 minutes ago, kev238 said:

It does seem amiss that there is clearly the potential for this to bring the strongest winds for a couple of decades in the southern half of country and yet its not being flagged up to that level.  Infact my dad, who follows weather fairly closely and lives in Gloucestershire , believes that Friday will Just be a bit windy 

A little moderation is required. It is still 2 days away, hasn't even formed yet, and there is considerable model variation on outcome.

Red warnings are quite rightly reserved for severe life endangering events when there is certainty about the event. Flinging out red warnings that turn out to be incorrect rapidly devalues them. Remember there have only been a dozen red warnings issued in over 10 years!

Edited February 16, 2022 by chapmanslade

[Captain Shortwave]

I guess the uncertainty is that if the low corrects slightly south then not only could the winds miss us entirely, but also it will mean that the low deepens later and as such for the U.K. will be spared that way.

Still with so many models producing 80mph gusts across southern England then I am surprised at the lack of coverage on this.

[TwisterGirl81]

Good lord, we are going to be battered in the south! I wonder what the wind chart would have looked like using this format for the 1990 burns days storm?

BBC and Met Office going for 60-70....really?! there's 80-90mph here

Worrying 

Edited February 16, 2022 by TwisterGirl81

[chapmanslade]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

I guess the uncertainty is that if the low corrects slightly south then not only could the winds miss us entirely, but also it will mean that the low deepens later and as such for the U.K. will be spared that way.

Still with so many models producing 80mph gusts across southern England then I am surprised at the lack of coverage on this.

And of course if ICON is right then there is more likely to be a red warning for snow in the Midlands!

Chucking out red warnings willy nilly 2 days out is not something the Met Office ever do.

[kold weather]

16 minutes ago, Steve C said:

What the 06Z Icon run is showing doesn't warrant Eunice even being a named storm, IMO.

I'm not up to speed with model statistics, so how well rated is Icon? It does seem to update very quickly...

 

It's struggled with this one  and recently has bedn flip flopping with this storm and whether yo form it or not.

Worth noting though that the icon 06z still gives 65-70mph winds for the South and into the London area with blizzards an issue as well. So still significant.

Met office really do need to update to a wide amber warming, strong agreement now if you take away 06z icon on the broad spectrum  and even a modest downgrade on the models would *still* justify an Amber imo.

Edit - no need for red yet I agree, but leaving it a little late for an easily justifiable Amber for the Midlands and SW at least.

Edited February 16, 2022 by kold weather

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Good lord, we are going to be battered in the south! Worrying 

To be fair its not just the south  thats 90mph winds on the cusp of brum 

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

It's struggled with this one  and recently has bedn flip flopping with this storm and whether yo form it or not.

Worth noting though that the icon 06z still gives 65-70mph winds for the South and into the London area with blizzards an issue as well. So still significant.

Met office really do need to update to a wide amber warming, strong agreement now if you take away 06z icon on the broad spectrum  and even a modest downgrade on the models would *still* justify an Amber imo.

Edit - no need for red yet I agree, but leaving it a little late for an easily justifiable Amber for the Midlands and SW at least.

Yep, I don't think anyone is seriously suggesting a red at this point. But ambers could have been issued yesterday, people need to be made aware of this.

[Froze were the Days]

14 minutes ago, Snow Queen one said:

All Schools in KENT EAST SUSSEX MIDDLESEX to name a few are on half term this week.  Thats quite a lot of kids off school.

I hope Eunice does not arrive.  My builders have just git upto roof plate height on a house i am building and if this storm arrives as predicted i fear for my newly built walls.

add Essex and Suffolk as well...

[Steve C]

Sitting here, awaiting a Met Office update...

[mike57]

Ive said it before, but I think the public find the current warning system confusing, they don't differentiate in their minds between a low probability high impact event and a lower impact event that is more likely. There is then the impact assessment with higher impact at busier times/areas, but again I don't think there is a good understanding of this. Looking at the possibilities from Storm Eunice I would say an amber warning is justified. Here is a snip from Fridays prediction on here for Hartland Point.

I think there should be trigger points that upgrade warnings to amber if for example in the case of wind speeds, they could exceed say 85mph, irrespective of probabilities, time of day etc. Set trigger points for all the major weather problems

 

[Timbo]

Has anyone got archive chars for how it looked for the great 87 storm for comparison to Fridays predictions, is it taking the same path? 

[richie3846]

1 hour ago, seb said:

Unless it’s a sudden change in situation which causes immediate danger, advance warnings are updated each morning and I’m sure this is what will happen later unless the MetO see something different to all of us.

Going amber for a large area doesn’t happen often but it does and that would be the right thing to do today, emphasising risk and uncertainty. The red would be issued 12-24 hours in advance once more is known about the most likely areas to be hit with wind speeds warranting red.

Yes around 11am is the update time. I usually get a ping on my app, it could well be upgraded to amber shortly, given all the models in the discussion this morning.

[Mapantz]

Amber issued.

[Steve C]

Aha!

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

[CLH]

Amber

[pinball wizard]

And there's the much wanted Amber warning now out

[Mark Smithy]

5 minutes ago, Timbo said:

Has anyone got archive chars for how it looked for the great 87 storm for comparison to Fridays predictions, is it taking the same path? 

The thing about that storm is that none of the models spotted the intensity of the weather bomb (rapid cyclogenesis) and sting jet. So it significantly upgraded in real time.

Those who casually announce on here that storms always downgrade or that they always go north are misleading. What might be true for snow (because of our island location) is not necessarily true for storms.

Edit. Amber now issued

Edited February 16, 2022 by Mark Smithy

[Mapantz]

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

19 minutes ago, Timbo said:

Has anyone got archive chars for how it looked for the great 87 storm for comparison to Fridays predictions, is it taking the same path? 

1987 centre of the storm formed over Biscay/Brittany, moved over Dorset, through Oxfordshire, Beds/Cambs and exited the coast at Lincs, taking a NNE path.
On the SE side of the vicious almost pinhole low, Winds Started off as a South/Southeasterly and then backed South/Southwesterly as the low cleared through.

Eunice is coming in through the Celtic sea up into Wales/Bristol channel, so the winds will start off as Gale force SW’lies and then veer W/NW as it clears. Quite a different path to the great storm of 87’, but similar areas affected, and maybe more widespread. 87’ affected the SE quadrant of England, with greater damage relative to any other storm over the last 3 centuries!! 

Edited February 16, 2022 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Liam Burge]

This is one of the biggest amber warnings I have ever seen and it's literally a MAXED amber warning.

[CLH]

Just now, Liam Burge said:

This is one of the biggest amber warnings I have ever seen and it's literally a MAXED amber warning.

Yes, that's notable, isn't it? It's simply about the likelihood now.

[Liam Burge]

Just now, CLH said:

Yes, that's notable, isn't it? It's simply about the likelihood now.

Yes. Once the track of the storm is pinned down exactly I believe that a red warning HAS to be issued as all that's missing from this warning is the certainty of where it's going to hit.

[Timbo]

What would happen if we get a sting jet into the mix as it develops, how much could this increase the gusts to?

[seb]

MetO doing exactly what is expected and noteworthy impact matrix all but guaranteeing a red once the likelihood is more certain. I can't recall the last time we had an amber warning covering that wide an area and where the matrix was already showing the highest possible impact.