Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Mike Poole]

GFS taking the more intense track T60 T66:

Just highlights the uncertainty still at this range - a million miles from ICON!

Edited February 15, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Thunder and Lightning]

Wowzers. GFS 18z brings the low more intense and a tad further north than 12z. 90mph through Bristol Channel. 85mph Midlands. 80mph in London? Would be pretty bad.
 

[weirpig]

Really????

[Guest]

GFS 18z is catastrophic for pretty much all of southern and central England. Widespread damaging gusts and totally different to the ICON 18z.

Much to be resolved! 

[near northampton]

There are many variables at play here, I have witnessed many scenarios on NW ahead of potentially damaging storms across inland lowland England, few have come off, but at some point one will hit, as someone who witnessed Oct 87 and the Burns day storm (in Herts) nothing has come close to those 2 storms, however something will eventually come about, interesting times

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Really????

That’s something I never thought I’d see, a ‘black hole’ on the Meteociel wind gusts chart - even less did I expect to see it within the UK landmass! - Just!

Edited February 15, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Really????

I'll keep saying it, the GFS is one of the best at forecasting the intensity within T72. And when the GFS gets the black ink out, it usually ends up with a Met Office red warning.

[weirpig]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

That’s something I never thought I’d see, a ‘black hole’ on the Meteociel wind gusts chart - even less did I expect to see it within the UK landmass!

yep   i would see it at the extreme end of the scale  but each run seems to be giving these speeds  just in slightly differing areas   one of the worse runs for areas effected  huge cities with big populations

[If Wishes made Weather]

 

Well this would be pretty much a wipeout for a line south from the South West to the Wash. 

I have seen that the estimated gusts though in the metoffice site have been ca 20% lower than the ones that even there own chart has been showing all day and yesterday - so maybe nothing as bad as this?

[mountain shadow]

Potential plus 90mph gusts in Southern England during midday on a Friday!

Carnage potential. 

[Man With Beard]

Never seen the "black" make landfall over SW England before. That would be bad.

[Tim M]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'll keep saying it, the GFS is one of the best at forecasting the intensity within T72. And when the GFS gets the black ink out, it usually ends up with a Met Office red warning.

Is it also one of best for forecasting tracks of such storms?

[Nick F]

Ouch... hopefully most are hoping for a downgrade of wind gusts!

[minus10]

10 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Really????

2 1/2 days away...showing this...but can it be that wrong now? This has to be closer to what will happen than what the Icon is showing although it is said that gfs has propensity to blow up lows...but at this timescale??

[TwisterGirl81]

Ok now I’m scared…if the gfs is correct we are going to experience one of the strongest storms since 1990  

[Thunder and Lightning]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Ouch... hopefully most are hoping for a downgrade of wind gusts!

Yes, usually i'm one always hoping for an update and more extreme weather, but I must admit 80mph sounds pretty scary!

[Man With Beard]

4 minutes ago, Tim M said:

Is it also one of best for forecasting tracks of such storms?

It's not bad but regarding track I'd go for ECM over GFS at this point in time. They aren't miles apart right now, and UKV/UKMO within the same envelope. But enough uncertainty on the track still there for the moment. Perhaps this time tomorrow we'll be more certain about that.

[Ice Day]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Never seen the "black" make landfall over SW England before. That would be bad.

Quite - as an avid severe weather fan, this is too much even for my taste!  Not to sound melodramatic, but *If* the pub run is correct, it really would be an exceptional event and create quite significant damage over a large swathe of England and Wales. Even worse, the time of day it's hitting would undoubtedly cost lives.  I, for one, will be keeping everything crossed for 'downgrades' tomorrow (which is what I expect).  50-60mph would be just great, but not this run please.

Edited February 15, 2022 by Ice Day

[markw2680]

2 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Yes, usually i'm one always hoping for an update and more extreme weather, but I must admit 80mph sounds pretty scary!

Same here, I’m well up for a good storm but there could be some damage if it proves to be that strong

[Nick F]

If anything, 18z GFS is deeper and tracking slightly further north as it crosses northern England on Friday ... whilst the trend with other models is to track it further south with each successive run ... the uncertainty continues ...

[weirpig]

Well the GFS gave us the black hole   The Arperge is closer to white.   crikey

[damianslaw]

Which model did best with Storm Arwen? We had a yellow warning only with strongest winds expected further east. We should have been amber at least indeed I say red the destructive power was quite exceptional around here..

[Tim M]

20 minutes ago, If Wishes made Weather said:

I have seen that the estimated gusts though in the metoffice site have been ca 20% lower than the ones that even there own chart has been showing all day and yesterday

That has puzzled me too... is that down to human input after looking at the data perhaps?

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Well the GFS gave us the black hole   The Arperge is closer to white.   crikey

Looks marginally further N like the GFS

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Tim M said:

That has puzzled me too... is that down to human input after looking at the data perhaps?

I think someone gave a good answer to this earlier, the charts many of us post for wind gusts are at 10m height - Meteociel certainly is, the gusts at the surface would be less, so need to be sure we are comparing like with like.