Storm Eunice - 18th February

[NO LONGER POSTING]

ICON definitely on its own RE southerly track... wonder if the others will follow suite or if ICON goes north tomorrow...

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by Surrey

[GSP]

19 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

This really isn't funny

They’ve run out of colours!

[SizzlingHeat]

Its a shame the UKMO doesnt do 3hr intervals but similar to GFS 12z with deep low crossing across the south with gusts between 70-90mph widely 

[alexisj9]

32 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Exact opposite for me, I take the snow chances and not the structural damaging gales

Agreed it needs to drop south substantially. It's giving me the collywobles.

[weirpig]

Very troubling  ukmo

  

[Thunder and Lightning]

GEM... again suggesting what looks to me like 90-100mph gusts. Can't be right. I used meteologix.com earlier today and it was more like 70-80mph for the morning run which was similar. Maybe something wrong with meteociel but im not sure if that makes sense/could be possible or not. 

[shunthebartlett92]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Very troubling  ukmo

  

Yeah this is deeply worrying ive gotta say. Might just close my eyes for a couple of days and see how we look thursday!

[Porto]

3 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

GEM... again suggesting what looks to me like 90-100mph gusts. Can't be right. I used meteologix.com earlier today and it was more like 70-80mph for the morning run which was similar. Maybe something wrong with meteociel but im not sure if that makes sense/could be possible or not. 

Meteociel shows 10 metre winds, so theyre going to be stronger than surface level shown on meteologix

[Snowyowl9]

Great weather for blowing windmills over..

Massive 300ft-tall turbine crashes to ground as strong winds to hit UK (msn.com)

 

[Mark Bayley]

6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Very troubling  ukmo

  

Yep, pushes the strongest winds slightly further south but intensifies them along the south coast. Can never make out the colour scales on these charts, but must be close to 90mph gusts, with 70 to 80 quite widely across south Midlands, South West and South East.. GEM take 

 

 

[Man With Beard]

Strongest winds likely to be on NW facing coasts like N Devon/Cornwall and W Wales; in the SW, 90 or 100mph is currently modelled by many, e.g. tonight's UKMO:

Still some work to get the direction nailed, looks a 50/50 split between it being predominantly midlands south, or extending further north into Lancs/York's.

GFS still showing 80-85mph gusts inland in many places, which as it's now within T72, should be taken quite seriously; based on past performances, the GFS will be really good at forecasting the intensity from now on.

Edited February 15, 2022 by Man With Beard

[Thunder and Lightning]

2 minutes ago, Porto said:

Meteociel shows 10 metre winds, so theyre going to be stronger than surface level shown on meteologix

Thanks - make sense

[Paul]

UK Met Office global model definitely looking pretty fierce still - a touch further south than on the 00z, but they're fairly close together. 

   

The 15z UKV will be out in around an hour or so, for the details..
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ukv

 

[Downburst]

Is there anyway to extrapolate the gustiness (and frequency of the gust) if you follow, of the wind by looking at the air column or some other indication? I ask as some of these gusts if they did happen over inland populated areas of England would clearly be extraordinarily dangerous for most. I've lived through many a storm, but anything over 60 miles an hour is horrendous, but 70 or 80 inland is pretty much destructive and scary. Certainly not going to stand up against a gust like that with cold air too. If the wind is kind of steady at lets say average 30 to 40 with very occasional gusts that helps, but I wonder if we know how frequent the gusts are. For Storm (ex hurricane Ophelia) in Ireland a few years back, the wind was nothing like I had every experienced, no real gusting, just a steady heavy one direction blast, so damage was less than the violent gustiness which snaps things around.

[Bogman]

2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Unless you live in the far south or lucky enough to live on a hill in northern England, pretty much a non event for most, just like the rest of winter.

Which is a good thing for those with properties.

[Porto]

2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Unless you live in the far south or lucky enough to live on a hill in northern England, pretty much a non event for most, just like the rest of winter.

Im not sure if 70mph - 90 mph winds over a vast area of the UK during the middle of the day is a "non-event"

[Jimmyh]

7 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Unless you live in the far south or lucky enough to live on a hill in northern England, pretty much a non event for most, just like the rest of winter.

Sorry am I really reading this. Straight up. At which point do you classify this as a non event. 75mph winds across Lincolnshire gusts but its OK its a non event. 

 

[Cymro]

9 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Unless you live in the far south or lucky enough to live on a hill in northern England, pretty much a non event for most, just like the rest of winter.

I fail to understand what it is you’re seeking? 

[Weather-history]

Track looks similar to the 24th March 1986 storm

[Ross90]

I think some people are exaggerating the severity a little bit. Yes 90mph + would be quite damaging but it's much more likely that gusts will peak around 70 - 80mph inland if that. It might be unusual for some places but you're not going to suffer severe damage from winds in that range, well not unless a tree hits your property... 

[shunthebartlett92]

Losing chimneys, tiles, wheelie bins are possible on a residential level. Maybe the chihuahua puppy going out for a wee

[Jimmyh]

1 minute ago, Ross90 said:

I think some people are exaggerating the severity a little bit. Yes 90mph + would be quite damaging but it's much more likely that gusts will peak around 70 - 80mph inland if that. It might be unusual for some places but you're not going to suffer severe damage from winds in that range, well not unless a tree hits your property... 

Erm try the burns day storm... try it being in the daytime and numerous other factors. Central London hit by 75mph gusts even 70mph gusts will be dangerous. The track and the depth have hardly changed in last 24 hours. As was said above we are t72 hours. On the scale of warnings. I don't remember one that has fallen into the yellow category that one movement will be into Amber. Over doing it I don't think so. My mum lives on a hill 750 ft up so I am watching it closely 

[congerball]

25 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Unless you live in the far south or lucky enough to live on a hill in northern England, pretty much a non event for most, just like the rest of winter.

[Wivenswold]

2 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

Erm try the burns day storm... try it being in the daytime and numerous other factors. Central London hit by 75mph gusts even 70mph gusts will be dangerous. The track and the depth have hardly changed in last 24 hours. As was said above we are t72 hours. On the scale of warnings. I don't remember one that has fallen into the yellow category that one movement will be into Amber. Over doing it I don't think so. My mum lives on a hill 750 ft up so I am watching it closely 

Yep, absolutely. I worked at Basildon station that day, wires came down on both lines into London so I took 4 buses home to East London, a 5 hour journey for what was normally a 20 min commute, luckily the wind had died down by the time I had to sit on a double-decker in Romford. 

When gusts of 75mph hit the NW coast of Scotland, the locals bring the washing in. When 75mph gusts hit London, miles of railway will have wires down, roads blocked by falling masonry not to mention a few big trees down and widespread power cuts, rivers are full too. London and the South East will be chaos if this happens, I really hope everyone stays safe.  

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

I think some people are exaggerating the severity a little bit. Yes 90mph + would be quite damaging but it's much more likely that gusts will peak around 70 - 80mph inland if that. It might be unusual for some places but you're not going to suffer severe damage from winds in that range, well not unless a tree hits your property... 

Thankfully forecasting agencies will rightly take these storms with more seriousness! If the UK gets to Saturday evening with no major disruption from these storms then we'll have done remarkably well. Even very recent history tells us that structural damage and loss of life could be on the cards, and that is from storms that were a little less severe and affected less densely populated areas on the whole.

17 minutes ago, Cymro said:

I fail to understand what it is you’re seeking? 

Attention, perhaps?  I think many would take a non-event if it means their property stays intact. Unfortunately the latest charts continue to be of significant concern for many central, southern and western areas.