Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Empire Of Snow]

44 minutes ago, James Maidstone said:

I think todays 12z are important to see if the southerly trend continues, but as other posters have said it is going to be short term forecasting and gives the Met Office a bit of a headache, especially with this one hitting populated areas.  Go red too early and it is only really "Amber worthy" and doesn't develop as expected or the stronger winds are too far south then the standard tabloid reader/bloke down the pub will  be giving it the biggun "Useless/panicking over nothing as usual" etc.   Leave it too late and people will say they weren't warned.  Ultimately people in this country just don't listen to the detail, they don't listen to the experts and either way the experts are too often forced to water down information to suit the lowest common denominator.

Either way, it is a very interesting period of weather watching.

I agree but I have not seen any precautionary actions taken from the public sector and especially councils. Here we're under an amber warning for tomorrow and Thursday. There are a lot of trees in a bad condition on main roads with big branches ready to fall down. Guess what, some of them even have Christmas lights still hanging. Can someone tell me where the £200 p/m council tax goes? Roads full of holes also. 

 

[chapmanslade]

3 hours ago, The PIT said:

Downgrade overnight but still nasty however the downgrades need to be kept an eye on.

As for question what happens when a storm disappears well last time it happened the met office kept with the storm which wasn't shown on any model. Even issued red warnings and left them up even though the crisp packets weren't moving. The last big fail for the met I can remember.

Define downgrade please

Plus also specify when a red warning was 'left up' for a storm that didn't happen ? Red warnings are only issued very close to the event.

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I’m getting st Jude vibes from this already. Almost an exact carbon copy of the formation and track, and how some models are only having it affect the S/SE, when a day ago, it was an across the board event. A very fast moving and evolving pattern. 
The Netherlands, Belgium and NW Germany will also be in the firing line. 

Edited February 15, 2022 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[CLH]

This has the feel of February 13th 2014, which was a red warning. 

12 February 2014 – Storm Statistics | Official blog of the Met Office news team

BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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The UK saw severe weather conditions throughout the course of Wednesday 12 February 2014 and as forecast the strongest winds hit the Welsh and Northwestern coast. Below you can...

 

[Eskimo]

Quickly glancing at the 0z GFS ensembles - a greater number now don't have a closed low (underdeveloped) and/or have it crossing southern parts compared to yesterday's 0z. About a quarter just have it as a wave.

Don't want to tempt fate, but I feel we are heading, thankfully, to a more watered-down version. 

Edited February 15, 2022 by Eskimo

[weirpig]

Icon 6z keeping with the more southerly track  (infact maybe a tad more southerly than previous runs)  winds further south  with blizzard condtions further North.

  

[SizzlingHeat]

Seems the ICON has very slightly tracked slightly further north than the 0Z, with the centre of the low tracking from North Devon to Norfolk whereas the 0z had the low centred slightly further south exiting around south Suffolk / Essex. As a result, very high winds right along the south coast and inland southern England, slightly more inland than the 0z. Wind gusts even inland showing between 80-95mph. 

[weirpig]

Another shift south of the gfs 6z  snow line edging further south also

[LightningLover]

And yet another uptick in Intensity for Coastal east sussex from the ICON... I spy a 101mph near Beachy head!!

[Marcus_surfer]

23 minutes ago, CLH said:

This has the feel of February 13th 2014, which was a red warning. 

12 February 2014 – Storm Statistics | Official blog of the Met Office news team

BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

The UK saw severe weather conditions throughout the course of Wednesday 12 February 2014 and as forecast the strongest winds hit the Welsh and Northwestern coast. Below you can...

 

Remember it well... had a very short lived spell of 90mph+ winds which was very scary

[Mark Bayley]

6z has shifted the worst of the winds ever so slightly southwards - looking pretty bad for southern counties.. Will be interesting to see if those small southwards shifts continue. 

[CLH]

7 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Remember it well... had a very short lived spell of 90mph+ winds which was very scary

It was, it is the only time I can recall work allowing staff to leave early because of wind.

[Mike Poole]

Here’s the UKMO 0z T72 though to T102:

 

Highest gusts to T102:

Seems more southerly track on the models this morning, in general, as others have said.  Interesting to see if the UKMO firm up their warning today, I think probably not, they will refine it tomorrow, there is still far too much uncertainty for now,

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Mapantz]

Just about every website forecast has increased the wind speeds for down here, including my own software forecast. It certainly suggests corrections south overnight. 

[Kasim Awan]

18th January 2007 feel for sure

[Eskimo]

This band of precipitation was forecast to cross Scotland, but looks as though it could be a relatively dry day there now. 

Yesterday's 12z                                     Today's 06z

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by Eskimo

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Probably be a blend between the GFS and ICON.. Seem to recall a few winters back how poor the ICON was with the stalling snowy lows etc  

[shunthebartlett92]

Dont like this output at all, even in the midlands. The other half is flying back to Poland on friday lunchtime, cant see for the life of me that it can go ahead as it stands. 

Also caught in a no mans land like i was in aberdeen, just a windy day but minimal prospect of snow. 

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Just about every website forecast has increased the wind speeds for down here, including my own software forecast. It certainly suggests corrections south overnight. 

Backside northerlies (excuse the term) from this storm 80/90mph like icon shows would be a terrible scenario. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Backside northerlies (excuse the term) from this storm 80/90mph like icon shows would be a terrible scenario. 

Yep, Westerly winds then a quick switch to Northerly winds... Maximum damage as everything gets blown one way then suddenly another, bit like when a hurricane passes through.. 

Edited February 15, 2022 by Surrey

[Mike Poole]

I wonder if the fact that the yellow warning area for storm Dudley has been brought further south this morning gives an indication that storm Eunice may be more likely to correct south than north from where currently modelled as we get closer to T0?

[tinybill]

Still not looking good. For the east coast on Friday winds speeds  will be near. The great storm    speeds we all.know what happened here. On the. East coast

[Paul]

37 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Here’s the UKMO HD (I think this is the UKV)

Nope, it's the global model. Says at the bottom it runs at 10km, the UKV is 1.5km. 

[jellybaby1969]

Think Dudley needs to blow through before the finer details of Eunice can be pinned down

[Ross90]

The fact that Dudley has become a bit of a dud with pretty significant downgrades less than 48 hrs out is probably a sign of things to come. This one will end up being 80mph along the coast and 50 - 60 inland in my opinion.